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General Discussion >> 2017 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2017
      #97574 - Sun Jan 01 2017 12:34 AM

About a month ago it was difficult to identify a suitable analog year for the 2017 tropical Atlantic activity and it still is - no real firm indicators one way or another, however 1984 (13/5/1) is starting to emerge as a possible analog year. After starting with a weak La Nina, ENSO Neutral conditions are forecast to exist through most of 2017 in the tropical east Pacific. I'll start with 13/5/1 for 2017 and adust the numbers as necessary when the start of the season gets closer. Those numbers would suggest that 2017 would be an above normal season in the Atlantic basin - but its early. The current ridging pattern in the subtropical Atlantic is keeping SSTs on the warm side this winter (so far). 1984 did feature some late season storms and if the pattern holds, 2017 might do the same.

Once again we will keep this thread open until the season starts on June 1st and you can input your own guesstimates on the 2017 numbers until then - and revise them as often as you wish. As a group, CFHC did a fantastic job last year on the seasonal totals - best ever.
Cheers,
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97576 - Fri Jan 06 2017 05:51 AM

Another analog year that is emerging is 1996 (13/9/6) so I'll adjust my outlook to 13/7/3.
ED


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 898
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97592 - Sun Mar 05 2017 09:35 AM

Not making prediction yet. But I am intrigued by the weather on the west coast this year and a similarity with the pattern there in 1968-69. I know 1969 brought 13 storms and Camielle. It seems that the tropical Atlantic this year would be supporting higher than normal sea temps and a more robust tropical high pressure ridge which would lead to a more vigorous season. Waiting with interest for the May predictions by the usual entities.

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doug


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SouthGAwx
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: Georgia
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97597 - Thu Mar 16 2017 01:51 PM

12/6/3

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 898
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: doug]
      #97598 - Tue Mar 21 2017 10:55 AM

11/7/4

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doug


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 311
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: doug]
      #97599 - Fri Mar 24 2017 12:31 PM

Not sure what this will add but here is the early outlook from Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell.
Is the Current US Climate Cycle Thwarting Major Hurricane Hits

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2016 Season Prediction: 12/6/2


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