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General Discussion >> 2017 Storm Forum

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Area of Interest - TD FOUR
      #97707 - Mon Jul 03 2017 12:17 PM

At 03/15Z, Invest 94L was located about about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 8.8N 32.5W, and has essentially remained stationary for over twelve hours. Minimum pressure was estimated at 1011mb, and maximum sustained winds were about 30 MPH.

94L has a well defined surface circulation, with slowly organizing convective showers and a few thunderstorms. The incipient cyclone is presently traversing a moderate shear environment, but within a cocoon of greater mid-tropospheric relative humidity, and traveling across above average SSTs. An extensive tongue of modest dry, dusty air lies just to its north to northwest, and extends from northern Africa to the eastern Caribbean. This feature is showing signs of starting to mix out, and at this time arguably remains at an optimal distance and location for intensification (Shu, S., and L. Wu 2009).

Models in the aggregate slowly take 94L into the western Atlantic, with a few runs ramping it up into a formidable hurricane. However, this early on and with little in the way of data to go by, anything remains very speculative and suited for the Lounge .

As of the 11PM AST July 5, 2017 update, 94L has become TD FOUR and the title has been updated accordingly.

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Jul 05 2017 11:08 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Area of Interest - 94L [Re: cieldumort]
      #97716 - Wed Jul 05 2017 09:12 PM

At 06/0Z, Invest 94L was located about about 900 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 12.5N 37.7W, with movement to the west-northwestward at around 10 to 15mph. Minimum pressure was estimated at 1010mb, and maximum sustained winds were down to about 25 MPH.

94L has been struggling with some dry air entrainments and slightly higher-than-expected easterly shear over the past day and a half, after having very nearly become a tropical storm. The incipient tropical cyclone has been straddling the line between being a tropical cyclone and not since then, but given the persistent weakening trend and meager convection, it is no surprise that NHC has not yet designated it.

The window for this tropical low to become a numberable depression or storm is closing, and it may only have until Friday night before encountering even higher shear and lower relative humidity. However, with reasonable 60% odds per NHC, it is still better than even money it becomes FOUR.


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Area of Interest - TD FOUR [Re: cieldumort]
      #97718 - Wed Jul 05 2017 11:41 PM

At 06/03Z NHC declared Invest 94L had met the threshold to be classified a Tropical Cyclone, and advisories have begun on TD FOUR. Initial advisory location as of 06/03 was 12.8N 38.4W. Maximum sustained winds had increased tonight and were estimated at 30 MPH, with its minimum central pressure down to 1009mb.

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