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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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East Atlantic Tropical Wave
      #97727 - Sat Jul 08 2017 11:11 PM



A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave embedded within the Monsoon Trof, along with several linked small minimums of surface pressure (low pressure centers), has been looking interesting. In addition, a modest thunderstorm complex associated with this region of disturbed weather rolled off western Africa late last night, and is now showing signs of enhanced vorticity.

This region is not yet Invest tagged, and as of the 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 TWO, NHC had not yet made mention of it - even in the extended 5 Day. However, models in aggregate have been lukewarm on developing either a strong wave or tropical cyclone from this soup over the next seven days, with the prized GFS the most consistent, and bullish.

Below: GFS Ensemble Members 120 Hours out from 18Z July 8, 2017 Initialization
In this run, most members are clustered around the development of a closed surface low east of the southern Lesser Antilles, with minimum barometric pressures ranging between 999mb and 1010mb at that point in time. ***LOUNGE CAVEATS APPLY***

Ensemble map credit and thanks to Tropical Tidbits/Levi Cowan

This feature has not yet developed, and may in fact not do so at all. However, if and once a more distinct system forms we will update the title and thread with any relevant Invest tag, storm number, name, etc.

This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on this feature's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are appropriate here.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave [Re: cieldumort]
      #97728 - Sun Jul 09 2017 09:14 PM

Evening model run summary for the wave:

18z GFS
Moves the system fairly steadily through the Atlantic, starts to develop it on July 14th. Saturday morning, hurricane over the central leewards, Clips the eastern part of the Dominican republic on Monday July 17th, Moves through the majority of the Bahamas as a hurricane on Tues/Wed 18/19th. landfall near Charleston (major hurricane) on Saturday July 22nd. Rides the coast up through the outer banks back over water Sunday morning July 23rd. Snd Landfall in Long Island, NY on the afternoon of the 23rd.

The 12Z Euro develops it closer to the islands but slams it into South America and loses it.

GFS Parallel never really develops it.

CMC never really develops it.

In short GFS is showing the most from it, but the euro is joining in with development near the islands, but not with keeping it alive longer than that.

With only the GFS showing real development, (although the Euro hints it could happen) there is lots of time to watch this one. That said the NHC has given the area a 20% chance for development over the next 5 days. Those in the leeward islands will want to watch closely.





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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave [Re: MikeC]
      #97729 - Sun Jul 09 2017 11:50 PM

0z GFS develops this on Tuesday, or at least closes it off, which is faster than before (For development) but then pretty much follows the 18Z through to at least July 18th.

After that it diverges from the 18Z run and starts heading northwest, hurricane near Nassau the morning of July 19th. Landfall near west palm beach as a 950 mb (major) hurricane on the morning of the 20th. Exits into the Gulf near Tampa late evening on the 20th. (still a major hurricane) Another landfall in Southeast Louisiana on the morning of the 22nd (as a major) the rides wnw inland into Louisiana, bringing a lot of surge toward NO, and many areas in Louisiana and the entire northern Gulf coastline.

That said, None of the other models does anything with the system, and nothing has developed, so I can't really buy into the GFS right now (Even in the 5 day range) Still not an invest, much less developed, much like TD#4 way too soon to tell.





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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave [Re: MikeC]
      #97731 - Mon Jul 10 2017 07:28 AM

6Z GFS develops it but moves the storm over Haiti and most of Cuba before turning into the Gulf and landfalling at the TX/MX border, much weaker than last runs. it still develops it before the islands int he Caribbean and moves it in as a strong Tropical Storm or Hurricane Friday night into Saturday morning.

The overnight Euro run doesn't do much with the system at all. One of these two is very wrong, based on the Atlantic conditions, I'm not buying the GFS runs from the last day or two at all.

In short, too early to say with this wave, but I think the GFS idea is wrong.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave [Re: MikeC]
      #97737 - Mon Jul 10 2017 02:23 PM

GFS again remains alone in development in the 12Z runs. Still simliar to earlier runs, this time back over the Outer Banks (After stalling in the northern Bahamas for nearly two days while intensifying.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave [Re: MikeC]
      #97739 - Mon Jul 10 2017 07:12 PM

18Z GFS joins the other models and doesn't develop the wave, it does bring squally conditions to the leewards.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave [Re: MikeC]
      #97740 - Tue Jul 11 2017 07:26 AM

All model support has dropped, chances are less than the threshold for mentioning on the outlook. This one is done, the energy will eventually move into South Ameria.

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