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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
TS DON Lounge
      #97741 - Sun Jul 16 2017 02:34 AM




A trough of low pressure in the tropical Central Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 95L.

While recent model support has been lukewarm at best, conditions for development are actually starting to appear to be somewhat better than those runs would suggest, and as of the 2AM AST Sat July 16, 2017 TWO, NHC has given this Invest a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 5 days.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary.


As of 5 PM AST on July 17, NHC advisories will begin on Tropical Storm Don, located east of the Windward Islands, and the title has been changed accordingly. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Jul 18 2017 12:18 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 95L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97745 - Mon Jul 17 2017 01:28 PM

As of 17 July 2017 1700Z, the better global tropical cyclone genesis models are not excited with 95L's prospects, beyond perhaps a flash TD and then washing out into an open wave that tracks into central America and/or the eastern Pacific. This is unsurprising, given that 95L is a smaller system. It is even a bit of a surprise that these larger-scale globals have identified its existence much at all.

Alternatively, hurricane-centric models, that tend to initialize on the assumption that there is already something worth looking at, are running pretty hot on 95L, with the HWRF, HWRF-PARA AND HMON-PARA all sending a formidable tropical storm across the Lesser Antilles by mid-week.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97748 - Mon Jul 17 2017 11:56 PM

Model runs for don are mixed, Don is a very small storm, and thus could change in intensity rapidly. In fact HWRF and HMON models show it reaching hurricane intensity before the Windwards, however other models do not . The globals aren't handing it well right now.

But for the 0z models, GFS Parallel is showing it holding together and strengthening passing over the windward islands late Tuesday night. then falling apart before reaching Nicaragua.

GFS Operational isn't getting a good grasp of it (too small).


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97749 - Tue Jul 18 2017 06:57 AM

Morning models struggle to find Don other than the GFS Parallel and the hurricane models HWRF and HMON (Replacement for the now retired GFDL).

The range of difference in the hurricane models is from open wave to category 2 hurricane (after it passes over the Windwards). If the system reaches 12.5N or higher conditions are hostile enough to make the open wave more likely, if it manages to stay at a low altitude it has a shot at hurricane strength. Either way Don (and the wave behind it) are likely to be short lived.

Today however, the Windwards should be watching for it approaching from he east later tonight. The small size means some folks will barely feel it while others may be hit by a intense bit of storm which are very difficult to predict.


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