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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Home Brew Central
      #97773 - Tue Aug 01 2017 02:56 PM

This topic is to discuss frontal areas, or areas just offshore of the US or other land areas that sometimes form into storms, many times with little or no model support initially. It's important to watch because systems here can form with little to no warning, and its rare for fronts to make it into the Gulf this time of year (when it is ripe for such things to occur)

These storms are given the nickname of "Home Brew" meaning the storm develops close to the coastline off a frontal or other system that moves offshore from land and not the typical tropical wave.

Emily was such a storm on Sunday, and another area in the Gulf may be attempting to get together in the Central Gulf now.

This area has a fair bit of shear and no mentions on the models currently, but is being fairly persistent. Nothing expected from it, but it should be monitored just in case. Dry air is another issue that would prevent development.


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Prospero
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Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Home Brew Central [Re: MikeC]
      #97774 - Tue Aug 01 2017 07:37 PM

Looks like it has a bit of a spin going on right now...



https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?type=N0R&ID=TBW


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Keith B
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: FL, Orange County 28.59N 81.19W
Re: Home Brew Central [Re: MikeC]
      #97775 - Tue Aug 01 2017 07:40 PM

That was quick!
---

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Emily, located over the Atlantic Ocean well to the east
of Florida.

1. A small, non-tropical area of low pressure has formed in the
central Gulf of Mexico about 250 miles south of Pensacola, Florida.
Significant development of this system is not expected due to
strong upper-level winds and proximity to dry air. The low is
forecast to move northeastward over the Big Bend area of Florida
late Wednesday or early Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
AEC Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Home Brew Central [Re: Keith B]
      #97776 - Tue Aug 01 2017 09:26 PM

The area is starting to show up on the 850mb vorticity charts, i'd bet on chances going up a little from the 10% chance they have now, but not a great deal. Shear is still dominating, if anything happens it'll be quick.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Home Brew Central [Re: MikeC]
      #97777 - Wed Aug 02 2017 06:02 AM

The Gulf system really diminished overnight, chances are quite low anything comes of it, but it'll bring more rain to parts of Florida tomorrow into Friday.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Home Brew Central [Re: MikeC]
      #97778 - Wed Aug 02 2017 12:19 PM

Another flare up



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Home Brew Central [Re: MikeC]
      #97779 - Wed Aug 02 2017 01:51 PM

The 2PM Tropical Weather Outlook returns to no areas being watched, including the Gulf area. This seems to be warranted with how it went overnight, it'll be another rain event for Florida, but nothing even remotely organized.

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