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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
FLORIDA Invest
      #97833 - Wed Aug 09 2017 10:33 AM



A mid to upper level spin that is tracking wnw well ahead of Invest 99L has been increasingly working its way to the surface along an associated trof, and is in a somewhat favored region for genesis. This feature has been boasting more convection today, and in fact, now appears slightly more subtropical than not in the most recent visible satellite images as of this entry (Aug 9 10:30 AM EDT).

This spin does not yet have an Invest number, but may possibly get tagged with one later today. This disturbance looks to enhance rain across south Florida, and was recently responsible for flooding in the Virgin Islands. However, northerly shear and nearby dry air are not conducive for significant development.

Given this feature's close proximity to the state, improved appearance on satellite this morning, and history of producing flooding rain, a Lounge has been opened. This is where to place informed opinions and best guesses on its chances, if any, of development, or of its potential for more impacts in general.

Awaiting an Invest number (most likely 90L) and the title has been updated accordingly
-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 11 2017 11:01 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Subtropical Trof east of Florida [Re: cieldumort]
      #97841 - Thu Aug 10 2017 01:16 PM

Trof still has a 10% chance per NHC of becoming a numbered tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Very low, but not zero. Greatest risk is of flooding tropical rains, either way.

Quote:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Active weather pattern this morning as a trough of low pressure
edges westward over the South Florida peninsula. The morning MFL
sounding indicated an impressive 2.05" of PWAT, with even higher
values offshore, as seen on satellite derived PWAT. CAPE is long
and skinny, which is indicative of a tropical atmosphere. The high
moisture content may lead to an additional flooding concern, as
heavy rain already led to areas of ponding of water and minor
east coast metro street flooding earlier today. As this system
continues its journey westward over the peninsula this afternoon,
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain remain likely,
especially over the interior and Gulf coast.




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