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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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HURRICANE HARVEY Lounge
      #97845 - Sun Aug 13 2017 02:06 AM



A vigorous tropical wave that has emerged off the coast of western Africa is attempting to merge with an active Monsoon Trof, and is poised to become a strong tropical low or tropical cyclone while tracking west to west-northwest at a fairly low latitude.

This feature has the backing of a wide array of TC genesis models, which is not surprising given its vigor, and the favorable environment it is in, and will likely continue to be in for the better part of its voyage west.

This wave has the potential to become a serious hurricane and should be monitored closely.

While not yet Invest tagged at the time of this entry, it will likely be assigned 90L or 91L within a few days, if not sooner. (Edit: This wave has been tagged as of 8AM Aug 13, 91L. Second edit: the original wave pictured above in the far eastern Atlantic has been reassigned 92L, and the westerner-most Low center assigned 91L.).

This is where to place best guesses on this wave's development potential. The sharing of medium to long range model output is also encouraged here.

At 10:30AM Aug 17 Invest 91L has become PTC NINE and the title has been updated. And at 5PM EDT Aug 17 NINE recon has found PTC9 is now a tropical storm, Harvey. - At the 5:00PM Advisory Aug 20, Harvey was declared a remnant wave. However, the wave of Harvey is entering a favorable region for regeneration.


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vpbob21
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Re: E Atlantic Wave 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97848 - Mon Aug 14 2017 01:06 AM

The 00Z cycle of model runs seem to be trending weaker (although we haven't yet heard from the Euro). The CMC does very little with it (although it really likes the wave behind it) and the 00Z GFS is considerably weaker.

One thing that's a bit concerning is that the pattern in about a week should feature much more ridging in the western Atlantic than we have now with Gert so whatever kind of a system we have when it reaches 60-65W should have a chance to get much further west. Next couple days of model runs should be interesting to say the least.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: E Atlantic Wave 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97849 - Mon Aug 14 2017 11:44 AM

Much confusion with what and where is 91L this morning. Forecasting this system is going to be a problem unless and until (more likely until) there is really something we can hang our hats on. And it also remains very possible that the most interesting parts of the broad area of low pressure that the original 91L wave is starting to merge with ends up being tracked as two distinct disturbances. (91L and 92L, for example).

NHC has shifted their initialization of 91L to the west this morning, now closer to the center of the low pressure trof, and less so the strong wave that just rolled off Africa, and which has not yet merged all that much with the trof. This will change subsequent model runs, probably not by a lot - but perhaps noticeably - from prior runs.

As of 7:45AM EDT, the '91L' wave axis was located near 24W from 05N to 21N, with low pressure centered along the axis near 13N 24W.

However, as of the 10:37AM EDT NHC graphic update, '91L' was positioned at roughly 12N 30W.

And at 10:45AM EDT, NRL had 91L centered at 12.5N 33.8W, and by the next NHC graphical update, it could be this that is being tracked --- and this would be a very substantial repositioning of this Invest. Or, as noted above, we could have two separate Invests to track by this evening.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97853 - Tue Aug 15 2017 10:47 AM




91L is now definitely being tracked as the westernmost Low center associated with the broad monsoon trof, with Invest 92L having just been assigned to the distinct wave to its east.

As of 15/14Z NRL listed Invest 91L at 14.1N 41W with an estimated minimum surface pressure of 1011mb.


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doug
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97854 - Tue Aug 15 2017 12:11 PM

the models have not really bitten on either 91 or 92L yet.

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doug
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #97857 - Wed Aug 16 2017 03:29 PM

GFS not interested in 91or 92L yet...others showing some development and solutions. Satellite representation does suggest that the time estimations for development rendered by NOAA are reasonable.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97858 - Wed Aug 16 2017 05:37 PM

91L is looking better and better this afternoon. Since the upgrade last month, the 'new and improved' GFS seems to be missing developments of systems that do develop, and over-hyping others that do not develop at all. I tend to think 91L is probably going to be another miss for the GFS, despite it being historically one of the best genesis models.

When it comes to models so far this season, if a system has the DNA, I've paid more attention to the almost always bullish Canadian, because it is at least picking up on a cyclone, where others, including the GFS, may have not.

12z Runs

The most recent run of the Canadian expects a TD by the time 91L crosses the Lesser Antilles, becoming a mid-grade trop storm by time 91L has traveled half-way across the Caribbean.

Of the hurricane specific models that tend to just run on the assumption that a feature has already, or will develop, the new and improved HWRF follows a similar track and intensity trend, while the new and improved HMON keeps 91L a sloppy Trop Storm through the Caribbean, at best.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97873 - Sun Aug 20 2017 12:12 PM

WSI Calibrated ECMWF EPS now showing a greater than 90% chance that Harvey regenerates.

While the GFS runs should not yet be fully discounted, it is my personal opinion that the new GFS (since the July 19 upgrade) has not performed as admirably with Atlantic tropical cyclones as might be desired, and even in the face of a dramatic convective resurgence this morning, the latest runs (20/0z, 20/06z and now the 20/12z) still do mostly nothing with now x-Harvey... maybe a TD crossing Belize, or forming in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, at best. These runs now run entirely counter to the Euro, and defy the eyes.

Now awaiting the restarting of the TC-specific models HWRF & HMON. Run, runs, run.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97874 - Sun Aug 20 2017 01:43 PM

Harvey looks alive and well.Should be an upgrade soon.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97875 - Sun Aug 20 2017 10:56 PM

And just like that, it died out again.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97884 - Tue Aug 22 2017 09:30 AM

Model consensus for south Texas this Friday is growing much more concerning. HWRF, HMON, GFS, ECMWF, GEM & GFS Ensemble Members with almost 100% unanimity on a landfalling Texas hurricane Cat 1 to Major. Some runs hang it around just inland, others around the coast - with potential for very severe flooding if either of those scenarios verify (inland and/or coastal).

This is a few days out, and these runs can change. "Harvey" is not even yet a tropical cyclone again, so large shifts in track and intensity are quite possible. Image credits Tropical Tidbits.




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Prospero
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97889 - Tue Aug 22 2017 07:29 PM

I'm starting to watch Harvey as a possibility to bring some weather to Tampa Bay. I know right now it doesn't appear to be likely, but the plots have been shifting our way more and more as time moves forward.

If nothing else we need rain. This is starting the time of year when almost the only rain we get is from tropical systems that visit.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97891 - Tue Aug 22 2017 11:48 PM

Been away for nearly two weeks, looking at Harvey it's really coming together quickly off the Yucatan, concerned it may slow down enough to increase a bit more than expected. Central Texas coastline (Matagorda?) appears the most likely for first landfall, I'd watch it as far east as New Orleans or mobile, but expect it a bit further west if it re-emerges in the Gulf.

I'm also watching 92L as a harbringer of where it may go as well.

It also may stall out over northeast Texas/Houston, which would bring a massive flooding event to the area.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97892 - Wed Aug 23 2017 12:21 AM

0Z GFS has it landfalling near matagorda Saturday morning and slowly moving inland and curving east, dropping extremely large amounts of rainfall, slowly, though northeastern Texas to Alabama

0Z CMC is stronger toward Brownsville.

A lot depends on the short term motion now that its in the gulf, more west now would indicate a south Texas landfall, more northerly would put it closer to Houston. With the center appearing a bit more north than the models initialized at, the latter seems a bit more likely.

Rainfall would be the big story, 24" of rain in some spots.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97895 - Wed Aug 23 2017 08:05 AM

Overnight model runs are extremely interesting, going to call out a few things not normally mentioned on this one.

6Z GFS takes the system into Texas near Matagorda on Saturday morning as a cat 1 (although strengthening at landfall), and slowly meanders it around eastern Texas, near Houston on Monday morning, then scoots it along eastward into Louisana and MS dropping incredible amounts of rainfall. This model has only a single landfall and is rain heavy.

0z Euro takes the system in near the same place on Saturday, as a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane, stalls it out over land, then back into the Gulf Sunday night where it restrengthens into a hurricane, it then crawls along the texas coast and is just offhshore of houston as a category 2 hurricane, again raining like mad in Texas, likely a cat 2 hurricane at the time, then landfalls near Port Arthur midday on Tuesday. Rainfall estimates are in excess of 20" in many areas of Texas.

CMC landfalls in brownsville then hooks left into Mexico, seems less likely given current movement trends.

6z HWRF takes the system in as a 972mb hurricane (cat2), late Friday night, then basically stalls out over land in east Texas.

There is potential for rapid intensification before landfall with this system due to the position of the upper level low at the time (it's position relative to Harvey would enhance the spin)

The NAM mesoscal model at the newer 3k resolution shows Harvey approaching the Eastern Texas coast as a category 5 (897mb) hurricane, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...=0&ypos=342

Although the NAM is not to be used as an intensity model and not a good tropical model, it is picking up the possibility that rapid intensification could happen.

In short from rainmaker to potentially major hurricane somewhere in Texas, slow moving (either on or offshore) would bring in crazy amounts of rain, and we hope it remains disorganized enough to not rapidly intensify before landfall. But those in Texas absolutely should be watching it, and for signs of strengthening, if RI were to happen there would not be much warning for it.

One good bit of news, most of the usual intensity models keeps the system below hurricane strength over the next 5 days. So the rainfall event is more likely than not, but the potential for intensification is there.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97901 - Wed Aug 23 2017 12:23 PM

12Z GFS double landfall hit for Texas, first landfall north of Corpus, Saturday morning as a hurricane, loops through inland, slowly and exits back into the Gulf Tuesday, regains strength, another hurricane landfall near Galveston Wednesday morning, and raining still on Thursday.

rainfall though:



If its anything close to this it would be a disaster despite wind/surge.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97902 - Wed Aug 23 2017 03:09 PM

12Z Euro is slightly west, with landfall south of Corpus Cristi Saturday morning (cat 1/2 hurricane), then stall out just inland near San Antonio on Sunday, then exits back into the Gulf Monday, then crawls offshore of Texas and landfalls in Western Louisiana Wednesday Morning as a cat 3/2.

Ukmet 12Z takes it closer to Galveston,

12Z HWRF has a cat 2 landfalling near Corpus Cristi Friday night, then stalls it over San Antonio for days. HMON is similar.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97905 - Wed Aug 23 2017 05:57 PM

18Z GFS so far, showing landfall as a cat 2 hurricane near Corpus Christi on Saturday morning, then moves inland south of San Antonio. (up to 102 hours out so far) This is a shift southwest a bit of earlier GFS runs.

After this it slowly moves just south of the TX/MX border to the east and weakens, shifting the massive rain field a bit south, by Tuesday when the last run had it back over water, it still is over land in the 18Z run.
Toward Wednesday it's inland nearing the coast again, near the Tx/MX border. 180 hours out (next Thursday) it re-emerges into the Gulf, but it never really gets back together and another landfall occurs in Western Louisiana a week from Friday. Rainfall totals are still extremely high with this scenario as well.







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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97906 - Wed Aug 23 2017 07:00 PM

The hurricane models,

18z HMON has Harvey making landfall near South Padre Island as a category 3 (957mb) on Friday afternoon. This is a shift south from earlier runs.
18z HWRF shows Harvey making landfall near corpus Christi as a category 3 (958mb) on Saturday morning (pre-dawn hours) This is a shift north from earlier runs.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97908 - Wed Aug 23 2017 11:35 PM

0Z GFS starting to come in, this one with a lot of recon data collected today.

Immediacy notice this change from earlier runs, it's a 985mb Hurricane by tomorrow night. Cat 2 by Friday morning (975MB) shifting a bit west then.

Landfall early Saturday morning as a cat 3 hurricane near Corpus Christi, possibly wobbling into Kennedy county. Then moving more northwest over Corpus Christi then inland, stalls out south of San Antonio until monday, (not as far west as the 18Z run) Early Monday it starts moving back east (slowly).

Tuesday morning it's back in the Gulf as a Tropical Storm, and slowly creeping northeast offshore goes back inland on Wednesday morning near port O'Connor. stays inland then moves into Louisiana Thursday. Lots of rain.

0z Canadian, stronger and further north than the prior run. landfall near S. Padre Island as a Cat 2 hurricane on Saturday morning.










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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97912 - Thu Aug 24 2017 08:07 AM

Quick model rundown:

6z GFS Possible Cat 4 landfall Saturday Morning just north of Corpus Christi, then sits near San Antonio and rains itself out. Unbelievable flooding.

0z Euro landfall near Corpus late Friday night, Cat 2 Hurricane (Note Euro is already too weak based on the 986 mb recon)

0z CMC Rides up through Brownsville Friday night and stalls out near San Antonio. Rain rain rain. (also already too weak)

6z HWRF Cat 3 954 mb near Port O Connor at early Saturday morning, then stalls out.

6z hmon Firday night cat 2 near S. padre Island (This model is already too weak also)


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JMII
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97918 - Thu Aug 24 2017 01:12 PM

Well that ramped up quickly. Last night it was a bit sloppy but beginning to align itself. Shear dropped off as the other low pulled out of the way which allowed the system to rotate a large mass of moisture around its core. So now we are looking at a possible Cat 3 making landfall in TX, then stalling inland dumping huge amounts of rain over the weekend in an area that floods easily. The NHC's new graphics package looks good with the added wind speed radius showed.

Still trying to wrap my head around it being 25 years since Andrew.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Psyber
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97920 - Thu Aug 24 2017 01:22 PM

Possible Cat 4 :/

I know they're saying lots of flooding however I don't think the problem is storm surge. The rapid increase in strength will not create a gigantic amount of storm surge versus a CAT 3 or 4 spending days at that strength and really churning the seas.

With the current NHC projecting that it's going to stall just past the coast, THAT seems to be the worst of this. Dropping a foot and a half to two feet of rain will be the worst of all of this if it happens IMO.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #97922 - Thu Aug 24 2017 03:03 PM

As slow moving as Harvey likely will be Storm Surge will still occur, and probably be prolonged and pile up. Especially if it stalls near or just at the coastline. If anything it could be higher in areas than they are predicting. If it were ramping up quickly AND moving quickly then it would be less, but ramping up and crawling is a near worst case.

12Z GFS: (Pressures initialized too high)
landfall Saturday morning, Cat 3. stalls just inland until Wednesday! and then moves northeast inland.

12Z Euro Landfall Saturday morning Cat 2 (obviously not strong enough based on new pressures) Exits out into the Gulf Monday, then second landfall in western LA on Wednesday, cat 3. Rain and huge coastal impacts all along E. Texas and Louisiana.

12Z HWRF Landfall early saturday morning as a cat 3. stalls just inland.

3k NAM has pressure down to 873 (record Cat 5) before landfall, but is not a tropical model.


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Prospero
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97925 - Thu Aug 24 2017 09:06 PM

Brownsville Radar is picking up on Harvey.



www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states-regional/tx/brownsville


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97931 - Fri Aug 25 2017 07:30 AM

Morning model runs:

6zGFS: Cat 3 landfall near Mustang Island early Saturday morning. stays just inland until Monday, out back into the Gulf, second landfall just south of Galveston late Tuesday, not clear of Texas until Friday.

0z Euro Cat 3/4 landfall Saturday, back over water monday, Restrengthens Cat3 landfall near Galveston Wednesday. out of Texas by late Thursday.

6Z HWRF Cat 3 landfall just north of corpus early morning Saturday. exits back into Gulf Monday.

6Z Hmon Cat 4 landfall on Corpus Christi very late Friday/early saturday, back over water Tuesday.




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JMII
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97936 - Fri Aug 25 2017 10:25 AM

Quote:

Morning model runs:




None of those are good scenarios! This predicted stalling is pretty much a worst case situation. Most tropical systems get caught up in a front or other weather feature that quickly sweeps them away. Combined with being cut off from the warm water they tend to die inland quickly. That doesn't seem to be case with this storm

--------------------
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David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97953 - Fri Aug 25 2017 05:42 PM

I'm just going to say this; Admin can delete if they want. I just heard with my own ears on TWC that they didn't have mandatory evacs for Corpus Christi. Is this correct? Are we looking at another Katrina scenario? It was some kind of general talking but they kept talking over him; but I heard him say "We should have evacuated earlier."

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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kspkap
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97958 - Fri Aug 25 2017 07:43 PM

Colleen,
I heard it also. He said "This is not good. They waited too late." Traffic was not moving.


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: kspkap]
      #97962 - Fri Aug 25 2017 08:18 PM

They just repeated it. Makes me sick to my stomach. Did no one learn ANYTHING from Katrina? I'm watching TWC and seeing people in Houston (and CC) try to evacuate. A little too late. SMDH.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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txwxlearner
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97963 - Fri Aug 25 2017 09:05 PM

I am hopeful it is better than it first sounds.

New Orleans is almost at sea level with a lake on top, canals all around, and needs sump pumps during the "good times". Much of Corpus Christi raises in elevation quickly from the coast. Given the terrain and how fast the Hurricane grew in strength, I can understand why they didn't want people to get stuck on the roads when the rain bands started coming in like Houston had happen with Rita.


From CORPUS CHRISTI (KIII NEWS) - "As of Thursday, the cities of Port Aransas, Aransas Pass, Rockport, Ingleside, Sinton, Taft, Portland and Gregory have issued mandatory evacuation orders due to the incoming Hurricane Harvey. There are also mandatory evacuations for San Patricio and Refugio counties. The City of Corpus Christi has issued a voluntary evacuation ... Additionally, Bee County, the City of Kingsville and Three Rivers are under voluntary evacuation, according to city officials."


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Prospero
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97964 - Fri Aug 25 2017 09:11 PM

Port Aransas Pier recorded an 89 mph gust with a 74 mph steady wind:

http://www.sailflow.com/map#27.826,-94.579,8,1,536,7

I also see it has been offline a couple hours or so...


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Steve C
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97971 - Sat Aug 26 2017 09:12 AM

My first post. I've been a lurker for years. By way of introduction, I'm a donator here, and I've been following tropical weather closely for 20 years, living in the NASA area south of Houston. An engineer and human factors person by training. I'm a federal investigator of chemical safety incidents.

I guess I'm surprised at the response to Harvey. CNN last night made it sound like thousands will die. There were all of the typical videos on TWC of a wave coming in, shot from knee level. Comparisons to Ike. To Katrina.

This is not a large storm. Hurricane wind diameter was 60 miles at the max. The Texas coast is not below sea level like the bowl of New Orleans, so there is no levee break catastrophe awaiting. For the immediate area of impact just up the coast from Corpus Christi, I'm sure the wind damage will be a concern. But elsewhere, this is a rain event. A BIG rain event because of the stalled forward motion. But a rain event.

Here in the NASA area south of Houston, we have steady thunderstorms at the moment. No wind to speak of. Our worst case scenario (assuming the eye doesn't head back over the Gulf) is a TS rain event like Allison. Now, Allison was really bad, because rising water is a serious hazard. But it is no different than other non-tropical rain/flooding events that have occurred here.


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Kraig
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Steve C]
      #97972 - Sat Aug 26 2017 10:07 AM

Quote:

My first post. I've been a lurker for years. By way of introduction, I'm a donator here, and I've been following tropical weather closely for 20 years, living in the NASA area south of Houston. An engineer and human factors person by training. I'm a federal investigator of chemical safety incidents.

I guess I'm surprised at the response to Harvey. CNN last night made it sound like thousands will die. There were all of the typical videos on TWC of a wave coming in, shot from knee level. Comparisons to Ike. To Katrina.

This is not a large storm. Hurricane wind diameter was 60 miles at the max. The Texas coast is not below sea level like the bowl of New Orleans, so there is no levee break catastrophe awaiting. For the immediate area of impact just up the coast from Corpus Christi, I'm sure the wind damage will be a concern. But elsewhere, this is a rain event. A BIG rain event because of the stalled forward motion. But a rain event.

Here in the NASA area south of Houston, we have steady thunderstorms at the moment. No wind to speak of. Our worst case scenario (assuming the eye doesn't head back over the Gulf) is a TS rain event like Allison. Now, Allison was really bad, because rising water is a serious hazard. But it is no different than other non-tropical rain/flooding events that have occurred here.




Welcome... This is why we have learned why this site is so important...We can all learn and be informed about hurricanes without the hype, hysteria and inflated (could I simplify and just say fake in many ways) news!

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2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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txwxlearner
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Posts: 3
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #97973 - Sat Aug 26 2017 11:30 AM

In the Austin area (east of I-35 which is a big weather dividing line), we have received a couple inches of rain and an occasional gust of wind. Pretty tame for central Texas. Like many to the south and east, our weather concern is having the system stall out with rain, rain, and more rain over a large area and many days.

We use https://hydromet.lcra.org/ to track rainfall, streamflow, and river levels from the Highland Lakes to Matagorda Bay.

We use https://atxfloods.com/ to track local low water closings. "Turn around, don't drown, the life you save may be your own."


(my intro: I am a scientist in the Austin area and have been a lurker since late 1990s and also donate to support this awesome site


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txwxlearner
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 3
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: txwxlearner]
      #97987 - Sun Aug 27 2017 11:09 AM

Harvey has become an incredible example of inland flooding. For example, the southeast part of Bastrop County has received 18+ inches and at least another 6-12 inches of rain is expected in Bastrop.

The Bastrop County Judge just said during this morning's briefing, "next time you pray for rain, please be more specific" referencing the Texas drought conditions we recently had.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: txwxlearner]
      #97996 - Sun Aug 27 2017 05:53 PM

For those looking for an excellent radar app with rainfall estimates take a look at Radar Scope: http://radarscope.tv/#pro
This was the mobile app that Jeff Piotrowski was using during his EPIC Periscope Live Feed in the car wash (w/the now infamous blue shed) when Harvey hit Rockport, TX. Its pricey for a mobile app since its clearly aimed at professional weather crowd. Thus I figured it might be helpful to the weather junkies on this site to get TV station like radar data live on their phones / tablets.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Prospero
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97997 - Sun Aug 27 2017 07:22 PM

Been using RadarScope for several years at 10 bucks a year. Definitely the best radar app for iPhones or Android, most accurate, up-to-date, and the one I use even at home during a storm.

To go from $10.00 a year to 10 or 15 a month, what does it give in the pro version that we don't have in the whatever version???

I would do it, but need a reason.



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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97998 - Sun Aug 27 2017 07:44 PM

Don't want this thread to become an advert for Radar Scope ;-) but I'll toss in a quick few cents. It is my preferred radar app for mobile. I use GRLevel3 for the PC, and often even find Scope to have an edge over that. As an avid storm chaser who has intercepted countless hurricanes, tornadoes and other weather, the Pro Tier 1 version adding in the dual pane option, animated lightning/radar, as well as up to 20 frames of looping, is of tremendous value. I also pay for Pro Tier 2. Money very well spent. However, for any radar novices, or anyone just looking to save a few bucks, keep in mind that the NWS makes a great deal of radar information available freely, including storm totals. (NWS Houston Storm Total Precip Radar). Click 'Storm Total' in the options bar on the left.

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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97999 - Sun Aug 27 2017 08:22 PM

The new Pro version has an archive feature which has my interest. I could look at radar animations for some time into the past. That is something that has my attention. How many times I wake up and wish I could see our midnight thunderstorms on radar.

$15.00 a month, I spend more than that on beer on most days...

Think I'll upgrade and become a Radar Scope "Pro" user.

Edit: I am already a Pro Tier One user, and have been for many years. It is the Tier Two that I am upgrading to. $14.99 a month or $99.00 a year (no brainer).
Quote:

RadarScope Pro Tier 2

Travel Back in Time 1-Month

We’ve got data in the cloud. Look back 30-days and review every field of radar data we have

Is it Rotating?

Detecting rotation or shear in storms is simple now. We can’t show you where a tornado is (yet), but you’ll definitely know if a storm is spinning

What the Hail?

Wondering what size of hail may be falling? We use a variety of radar products to estimate maximum hail size in storms, then create a set of contours to show where it fell

Multi-Platform Usability

Data is accessible across platforms, transferring from macOS to iOS to Android with up to five devices active at one time

Only $14.99/month or $99.99/year




Having five devices is a big plus as well.



Edited by Prospero (Sun Aug 27 2017 08:28 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HUR HARVEY Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98002 - Sun Aug 27 2017 10:22 PM

Back to Harvey (Any more on radar apps let's just start an ASK/TELL),

Bastrop Co. TX emergency officials are warning residents to be aware that Harvey's high winds (sustained tropical storm force with higher gusts over large areas of central Tx east of I35), have blown over signs alerting drivers not to enter flooded crossings.

Winds should slowly subside in the Austin to San Antonio region as Harvey continues back to the coast at a snail's pace, but the rains will continue, especially over/near the center, and to the southeast, east, and northeast of the center. If the center does reemerge over water, this configuration could quickly change some.

Also, the Colorado River from Bastrop to La Grange is close to making an all-time flood record in this area of concern.

Some Austin area storm totals-to-date
22.3 inches have fallen in Smithville, 19.1" Cedar Creek, 16.2" Dale, 13" in SE Travis County (Austin metro), Dripping Springs 6.3", 6" at Lake Travis.


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