Peak Continues with Historic Harvey and now PTC TEN, Trop Atl Wave, E Atl 93L

10AM EDT 28 August 2017 Update
Another Harvey stat for the record books: According to Dr. Klotzbach, with Harvey still a named storm 59 hours after landfall, he has become 'the longest a TX landfalling hurricane remained a NS after landfall on record,' also noting that 'the average Texas landfalling hurricane weakens to a tropical depression in ~27 hours.'

As of 9:50AM CDT this morning, has maintained Harvey as a Named Storm during the latest advisory, despite the lack of ground reports of tropical storm force wind, as it is likely that the storm force winds seen from Houston's WSR-88D radar are mixing down to the surface in the stronger convective downpours, not to mention Harvey's barometric pressure of 997mb, and falling.

With Harvey now interacting with an upper-level trough (which is also responsible for his movement southeast) and becoming more sub-tropical in nature, only some strengthening is forecast even though Harvey's center is now emerging back over water. That said, it is possible that Harvey mixes out more of the dry air that has wrapped around his center from the northwest, and deepens more than anticipated.

Regardless of whether Harvey continues transitioning into a sub-tropical storm over the next few days, or is able to take enough advantage of being back over very warm waters to remain more tropical than not, very heavy rains near the center and in bands even well away from the center will likely persist and possibly intensify, with locations including but not limited to Beaumont, Port Arthur, Lake Charles, and even New Orleans now facing the prospect of having Harvey deliver an increase of flooding heavy rains and tornadoes to their areas.

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center

Elsewhere
PTC TEN (92L) just off the southeast coast with development odds of 90% over the next 48 hour or so. Movement to the north or north-northeast and then northeast later this week is anticipated.

A wave in the central Atlantic that is not yet Invest tagged, but which has become more convectively active today.

A vigorous wave out in the eastern Atlantic, Invest 93L, with development odds of 70% over the next 5 days.

5PM EDT 27 August 2017 Update
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten forms along of the southeast US coast.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina.

Original Update
Unfortunately, the devastation and potential for loss of life has only just begun.

"Unlike anything we've seen before" is how many hurricane experts are describing Harvey, having to blend multiple monstrous systems together to come up with some kind of analog.

After coming ashore as the first Texas landfalling Cat 4 since 1961, Harvey is now transitioning into a catastrophic flood event the likes of which the state may have never seen before, when considering area and population affected, as well as duration.

Most model solutions continue to hang Harvey around with only slow or no net movement, while close enough to the Gulf, and while in a very tropical environment over the state of Texas (also known as the 'Brown Ocean' effect), to maintain as a tropical cyclone for a very long time - possibly well into next week - transporting an almost endless supply of rich Gulf and Caribbean moisture into Texas, Louisiana and possibly beyond. And this assumes that Harvey doesn't end up sliding back offshore for another run at re-intensification.

Texans and Louisianans who live in flood plains or not need to pay very close attention over the next several days, as it is likely that potentially life-threatening severe flooding will occur - even in places not usually at risk.

Not to be ignored, Harvey is also an ongoing prolific tornado and waterspout producer.

We are also still watching two other areas of interest: Harvey's thus-far relatively kinder sibling, 92L, and also a new wave out in the central Atlantic with limited model support at this time.

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