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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: Wacissa, FL 30.42N 83.95W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #98267 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:37 PM

If the trend continues more north and east...and the apparent WNW motion isn't a wobble...this could be good news. Still, that's a sharp right turn predicted. Must be sound data that the next system will dig and pick her up.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98269 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:52 PM

The recent models runs have spread out - some show offshore to the east, others run thru Cuba, while some push into the west coast of FL. Difficult situation here, the 5 PM update should be entertaining.

Edit: 5 PM update... not much change - the cone just got wider indicating the lack of confidence 5 days out. TS force winds reaching the Keys/S FL Saturday AM.

Edited by JMII (Tue Sep 05 2017 04:58 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98270 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:58 PM

5pm update:


Quote:

Fixes from the latest satellite and radar imagery suggest that Irma
is moving a little north of due west or 280/13 kt




I thought so.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Sep 05 2017 04:59 PM)


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Major Sharpe
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
Loc: Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98271 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:59 PM

No entertainment value from the 5PM update. The NHC track seems to be virtually status quo on the track that eventually enters the Florida Straits and makes contact with the Keys. Versus the other, present models, it seems that the NHC is the one -- at least, for the time being -- at odds. The remaining models still seem to dictate a path that runs up the east coast of Florida. What this means, I have no idea. Is closeness to SE Florida better for that area, as it would seemingly avoid the impact of the eastern part of the storm? I will leave that to the pros- to decide.

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Steve C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 15
Loc: Houston TX 77059 29.60N 95.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Major Sharpe]
      #98275 - Tue Sep 05 2017 05:17 PM

It almost seems like NHC is waiting as long as possible on purpose before committing to where the northward turn will take Irma. In the meantime, they just keep leaving the last forcast day in the Straits. Even if they eventually decide it's an east coast scraper, they will just modify that last estimated position at the Keys to compensate. I could understand their reticence to committing to the turn. Once they do, the press will take it and run.

--------------------
Claudette (’79) Danielle (’80) Jeanne (’80) Alicia (’83) Bonnie (’86) Allison (’89)
Chantal (’89) Jerry (’89) Dean (’95) Allison (’01) Rita (’05) Ike (’08) Harvey (’17)


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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Steve C]
      #98279 - Tue Sep 05 2017 05:53 PM

Quote:

It almost seems like NHC is waiting as long as possible on purpose before committing to where the northward turn will take Irma. In the meantime, they just keep leaving the last forcast day in the Straits. Even if they eventually decide it's an east coast scraper, they will just modify that last estimated position at the Keys to compensate. I could understand their reticence to committing to the turn. Once they do, the press will take it and run.




Exactly. And what better place to put the last forecast than directly on top of the Keys, to encourage them to get the heck out, starting now.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98281 - Tue Sep 05 2017 05:57 PM

18Z GFS running, a bit further north in general this run (probably too far north based on the init since it avoids the islands, and looking at radar I don't see that happening), this run goes over the southern Bahamas starting Friday over the southern tip of Andros Island on Saturday morning (Cat 5) then starts to turn north over Andros Island. North Bahamas by Sunday.

130nm east of Cape Canaveral by Sunday night.

Landfall near Wilmington, NC late Monday night Cat 5

Again, this shows it clearing the NE Caribbean islands, if that does not happen its too far north from the get go. I suspect this will wind up swinging west again in later runs, unfortunately (and I wish it cleared the islands, for their sake)



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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98282 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:08 PM

That only illustrates the discrepancies in the evaluation of the ridge between the two models. This is a return of the GFS to its earlier estimates before it seemed to settle further west before the turn. Believe me I don't want the storm in the east GOM. I am terrified of the storm surge and complications that will create. However I am not sold on the GFS solution and see the west coast solution as a distinct probability and am acting acccordingly.

--------------------
doug


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chance
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98283 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:14 PM

This is the lounge and i understand people do not like to predict but Clark if you went pure gut where do you think it goes? I understand just a opinion like many of us..

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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98284 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:16 PM

The 18Z GFS is almost unfortunate because it looks to be way too much of an outlier compared to previous model runs and other models. This run isn't even really showing an eyewall hit on Florida, or just barely at that. Very much a large departure which I expect we'll see return back to the west when it runs again in the future.

That said, it sure would be a nice track if it verified. Although no path that gets close to any land is "good", this would be "better" than many other, much worse scenarios for Florida.

--------------------
Londovir


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bahamaweather
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Loc: Abaco, Bahamas 26.39N 77.09W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: doug]
      #98285 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:18 PM

I've been seeing the eastward drifts in the GFS runs over the course of today.

I'm located at Abaco Island in the North-Western Bahamas and it's a no win situation no matter where this monster ends up- but am becoming slightly more alarmed with each new run that edges east.

It will be interesting to see how much latitude Irma gains tomorrow- I might really have to start to worry.

Thoughts and prayers for the Leewards, the SE Bahamas where evacuations have already started, and whoever else may be in the path of Irma.

--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98286 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:18 PM

Quote:

Exactly. And what better place to put the last forecast than directly on top of the Keys, to encourage them to get the heck out, starting now.



It's been a while since a serious wind/storm surge event hurricane has been covered Live on the Weather Channel. The "Cry Wolf" situation is a dangerous one, and so many people watch the Weather Channel waiting for a powerful storm and their team tries so hard to be in the most impressive location. We watch every time, and think, "That is nothing. Is that a kid flying a kite in the background?" Even storms near Key West we've watched on Live TV as anticipated to be strong seemed very weak.

But a storm like this could be a deadly nightmare to be anywhere close. My wife graduated High School in Key West in the '70s and is distraught over what could happen with a Cat 5 direct hit. The entire island would be destroyed.

Just because the last several passes by the keys have been mild, that does not mean it would be a safe place to hang out during an Irma.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #98287 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:36 PM

Quote:

Very much a large departure which I expect we'll see return back to the west when it runs again in the future.




Agree. Its either a bad model run or a new trend the other models haven't picked up on yet. Is the high becoming weaker? Is it pulling out? Where is the incoming front? Is the cut off low not happening now? This is why I don't pick a favorite model and instead follow the trends on all of them. We watched run after run go S and W. This moved Irma from out to sea (many days ago), to the Bahamas and finally into FL. Now we've got a single data point showing a near miss to the east? No real confidence in that scenario at this time.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98288 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:43 PM

It will be interesting what the 00Z Euro shows. Will it shift significantly east too

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98289 - Tue Sep 05 2017 07:04 PM

last few frames of the floater Irma getting even more of a buzz saw shape. 190mph? EDIT recon found 916

Edited by lunkerhunter (Tue Sep 05 2017 07:15 PM)


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98292 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:00 PM

The 8:36 pm EDT tracks have a big shift East.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=11&year=2017&title=11


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leecherney
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98294 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:12 PM

Maybe the High won't be so strong? I won't believe were Irma goes, until it went.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98295 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:47 PM

Wanted to mention the 18Z Hurricane focused models.

18Z HWRF has landfall in Big Pine Key sunday midday as a Cat 5, then south of Marco Island on the mainland cat 5 later that afternoon, run ends just east of Naples inland.

18Z HMON landfall cat 5 near Tavernier in the keys, just after midnight Sunday. mainland landfall soon after about 10 miles west of the US1 bridge, then moves over lake Okechobee and the winds up near Orlando late Sunday night where the run ends (Cat 3/4 at the time)

Of note I believe the 18Z GFS is too far north/east based on how the system initialized, (Too far north) Irma will likely be a nail biter up until the turn, which could take it from the Gulf coast to out to sea, still. If the trend lasts an entire 24 hours, I would feel better.



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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98296 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:51 PM

Quote:

The 8:36 pm EDT tracks have a big shift East.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=11&year=2017&title=11



I have to say this: I'm not great at model runs and if this was a Cat 1 I wouldn't be so worried...I live inland. My husband is saying we need to decide whether to leave by tomorrow morning. I can honestly say that I don't know. Do we go to GA? I can only imagine the traffic and I don't want to run out of gas because I know the Keys are evacuating and Miami/Dade will probably be next...if not Ft. Myers/Naples. So I-75 to me is a no-go. We don't have any toll roads, so that's a great thing (although they've already suspended tolls). I guess I'm just looking for advice and I'm not getting much from the news. Do I wait for the next run? Will she run out of steam? Sorry, just venting. I have NO idea what to do. Flying is not an option at this point or I would already be in Chicago - but we have a dog that is sick with cancer and I've looked all over the place for shelters that will take pets but there aren't many options. My son goes to Florida Southern College in Lakeland and they are closing down on Thursday...out of country students *may* get a hotel room; out of state students are pretty much on their own. Thank goodness he only lives 10 minutes away from us. I could be jumping the gun here...so if I am, please feel free to tell me. I just don't know what to do. Ty in advance.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98297 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:04 PM

Colleen,

I'm in coastal Venice and been worrying a bit too, especially because the stores were already out of plywood this afternoon when I went to get some, but at this point it's looking like late Saturday or early Sunday at the earliest, so I think it's still too early to call. And you're well inland, so unless you're in a mobile home or really old house I would probably stay unless evacuation orders were issued.


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