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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Bloodstar]
      #98498 - Thu Sep 07 2017 04:55 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah... trending in the models is the key.. GFS went west but only slightly.. HMon and HRWF follow suit when the GFS does things.. but CMC trender further west again..same with GEM and even UKMet is more west into the Keys. This is looking like it will hit florida (80%) or at least skiming the east coast of FL with hurricane force winds... this is on the eastern outliner models.. or if it goes with the GEM/UKMet, Euro.. even Tampa will get TS winds and maybe Hurricane force winds .. especially in Naples,Ft Myers area.


I just watched Governor Scott give an update. It doesn't sound great for where I live; we could get 100mph winds (not sustained, of course). I've never been a fear monger and I'm not going to start being one now. Just being cautious. I'm really tired of this storm, to be honest.




I probably shouldn't mention that Jose does a loop in some of the latest runs... J storms and loops LOL (Off topic I know, but gotta find an excuse to smile and not cry)





--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Mike V
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Loc: Miami, FL 25.75N 80.23W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98499 - Thu Sep 07 2017 04:59 PM

Quote:

Quote:


I probably shouldn't mention that Jose does a loop in some of the latest runs... J storms and loops LOL (Off topic I know, but gotta find an excuse to smile and not cry)



I hear you. ;-) I'm doing laundry like I work at a laundromat and cleaning like a maniac. Including the fridge. Stay safe. Tampa is backed up on all roads.




I saw that and that is the last thing we are going to need down here.

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98501 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:06 PM

Quote:

Tampa is backed up on all roads.




My wife's family left last night from Tampa. It took them over 4 hours just to get to Perry. Everywhere is gridlocked and out of gas. They're going to have to contraflow if they order any more mandatory evacuations. I'm actually surprised that I-95 and the turnpike aren't contraflow already.

--------------------
Matt


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chance
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Mike V]
      #98502 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:07 PM

Can someone tell me what effect Sarasota would have if the center went right where the 5pm update has it? i know it can change either way but just if it went where the 5pm update has it right up the middle of the state what effect do you think i would get in Sarasota thanks i am just trying to fogure out weather to leave or stay.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98503 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:11 PM

Quote:

I'm also not seeing how the blocking features will create such a sharp turn to the north like the models are plotting...that is unless Irma slows way down. I just can't see how 175 mph hurricane travelling WNW @ 16 mph will just turn to the north like that.




I too was asking about this before. The forecast path shows such a sharp turn. Big things can't turn corners very well. It was pointed out that Wilma did turn like this, but only after slowing to crawl. Such motion should be easy to track via the Key West radar.

We are all shuttered up here... just the trash cans to bring in, garage and vehicle lock down tomorrow. Then make the call to stick around or bolt to Central or West coast of FL depending on the dreaded cone. If it stays offshore I feel safe, it would like Wilma. If she is onshore then we gotta go, way too dangerous.

5PM update, right down the middle of the state again!

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)

Edited by JMII (Thu Sep 07 2017 05:19 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chance]
      #98504 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:17 PM

If you're going to leave.. you still have time cause we still need more model runs for 3 days out or so. Will have a good idea later tonight after the 0z runs... as of now..from the points the NHC gave.. you'll be on the west side.. probably TS force winds wind, rain, power outages...any more jog to the west will put you in hurricane conditions.. anything more back to the east will probably give you squalls of TS force winds between bands

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98505 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:18 PM

It's forecasted to slow some Saturday afternoon into the night as it turns NNW

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98506 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:21 PM

That was quite a shift west for the cone at 5pm! Brings a lot more of my interest back into more serious categories....I am still just kind of sitting and making plans. Still plenty of time to get mom's shutters up if the guy who put them in doesn't, get her here and board up my place if need be....I never really believed the GFS with its dramatic eastward shift the other night....stay on it, guys!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #98507 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:29 PM

I have to agree with you about the shift to the left. Kind of puts me in the dirty side a lot more then I`d like. We`ll see at 11:00.

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #98510 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:54 PM

18Z GFS is moving left, coming ashore in Miami-Dade. The last several runs kept it offshore.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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drummingcraig
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98511 - Thu Sep 07 2017 06:14 PM

Quote:



My wife's family left last night from Tampa. It took them over 4 hours just to get to Perry. Everywhere is gridlocked and out of gas. They're going to have to contraflow if they order any more mandatory evacuations. I'm actually surprised that I-95 and the turnpike aren't contraflow already.




My guess would be that they are trying to get as much gas/supplies down South as possible. As soon as they flip the Southbound lanes it is all but gonna cutoff timely deliveries (same can be said about 75).

First post here BTW. Been lurking for a few days since my dad linked me here. Hello to all (wish I could say that under happier circumstances).


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: leetdan]
      #98512 - Thu Sep 07 2017 06:17 PM

0z will be important model runs...we'll see if the UKMet,Euro,GEM stay the same, move west or east... and also what the GFS does then. I don't care much for the CMC, or Hurricane models tbh really. Euro and UKMet has done best so far with Irma. I expect the cone will be adjust slightly again to the west cause of the 18Z GFS at 11pm

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Corkhill1
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Costa Rica
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #98513 - Thu Sep 07 2017 06:18 PM

NHC has been showing us it was coming to Florida so use the cone not the line.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
The miracle is still possible but be ready.


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Rob Moser
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 8
Loc: Naples,FL & Iowa
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: drummingcraig]
      #98515 - Thu Sep 07 2017 06:33 PM

From our experience with Wilma in Naples, power was out for 4 days. Winds gusted to 115mph in North Naples (Vineyards). Lack of power is likely to be much more severe with the entire state grid potentially damaged. With South FL extreme rains over the last 3 mo, Irma could stay stronger longer. Take heed... leave while you can. Better safe than sorry. Euro predicted track - not good -

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bahamaweather
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Loc: Abaco, Bahamas 26.39N 77.09W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Rob Moser]
      #98520 - Thu Sep 07 2017 07:43 PM

Wobble to the west...

--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: bahamaweather]
      #98522 - Thu Sep 07 2017 07:53 PM

This board is eerily quiet. Are we all waiting for the 00Z model runs?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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bahamaweather
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Loc: Abaco, Bahamas 26.39N 77.09W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98524 - Thu Sep 07 2017 08:02 PM

Quote:

This board is eerily quiet. Are we all waiting for the 00Z model runs?




I think a consistent west drift of those runs will be pretty conclusive.

--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 942
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98525 - Thu Sep 07 2017 08:06 PM

Not much to say. Time for speculating is about over. Making our plans definite. I have not been through something similar since Donna in 1960.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #98526 - Thu Sep 07 2017 08:16 PM

Saturday is my final prep day and battening down time. Will decide whether to board up late Saturday or early Sunday depending on Irma's location and local weather conditions. I have to work all day tomorrow.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 15/10/6


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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #98527 - Thu Sep 07 2017 08:19 PM

I rode out Donna in the Thames river, Groton CT, submerged in a submarine (USS CAVALLA - SS 244). Tied to pier, as were all the New London boats. Cycle the vents and sit on the bottom. About 2 ft of water over the piers at the height of the storm. Watched it all thru the periscope.

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