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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE
      #98005 - Mon Aug 28 2017 09:34 AM



A vigorous wave that has just left the coast of westernmost Africa has had solid model support for development over several runs, and this disturbance has been Invest tagged, 93L.

As of Aug 28 1215z, 93L was estimated to be centered near 12N 19.5W, with a minimum central pressure of 1009mb, and moving west at a rapid clip of 15 to 20 mph. The disturbance is being impacted by easterly shear, with convection displaced west of the approximate center.

There are some indication that a low level circulation may already be trying close off with 93L, perhaps at a location a little west of the presently estimated center. However, the fast forward motion of the disturbance and displaced convection will likely inhibit dramatic development in the near-term, but after 48 hours or so 93L's vigor may be able to overcome these detractors, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form - with NHC giving it a solid 70% chance of development within 5 days.

As an aside, props to vpbob21 for latching on to this wave early and bringing it to our attention more than once in the General 2017 Model Watching Lounge, where you can read from vpbob a little more on the model history of what is now 93L.

This is where to post thoughts on 93L's prospects. Long-term model discussions on 93L are also encouraged here. Pull up a chair, have a beverage of your liking, and share with us your thoughts. We may end up with lots of time to discuss this one.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98012 - Tue Aug 29 2017 07:39 AM

0Z Euro takes 93L into the Caribbean islands sep 6, then toward Puero Rico Sep 7 and Turks & Caicos int he Bahamas on September 8th. As a hurricane.

Something to watch closely post Harvey for the US also.


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craigm
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Reged: Wed
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98013 - Tue Aug 29 2017 08:56 AM

I'd like to post a good read on why the ECMWF outperforms the GFS. Although they both have their hits and misses as the article states. This pertains to 93L lounge only as we look at the current 240hr solutions for both of these models and also how well the Euro seems to be performing overall the last few years. This article is over a year old but, I think it still describes the most recent iteration of the ECMWF model. Not sure what is going on with the GFS with their longer range forecasts. Will do some more research to see how well the GFS has been verifying at 120+hrs since their new rollout. https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/03/...-just-improved/

Edited by craigm (Tue Aug 29 2017 09:00 AM)


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doug
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #98014 - Tue Aug 29 2017 09:51 AM

Euro is the only model that keeps the system in the lower latitudes up to 240 hours. The others have it significantly north.

--------------------
doug


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cosmicstorm
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #98015 - Tue Aug 29 2017 12:53 PM

Great post Will look forward to your results.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: cosmicstorm]
      #98019 - Tue Aug 29 2017 04:05 PM

Today's 12Z euro keeps it north of the Caribbean islands, but has a cat 3 hurricane just east of the Bahamas on Sep 8. the 12GFS doesn't really develop it, but the weather moves over Florida on Sep 11th (after going through the Bahamas)

93L is worth watching over the next week or so.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98023 - Tue Aug 29 2017 07:21 PM

18z GFS weak system passing just north of the Caribbean islands on Sep 6, then strengthening tropical storm through the Central bahamas on Sep 9, cat 2 hurricane over the Keys on Sep 11th, Cat 4 landfall big bend on the 14th

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98025 - Wed Aug 30 2017 09:39 AM

NHC will be issuing advisories for this as Tropical Storm Irma at 11AM.

6Z GFS keeps the system out to sea the entire run, but develops it into a hurricane.

0Z Euro has a major hurricane Just east of the Bahamas on Sep. 9th.

GEFS Ensembles concentrate near Florida, so it will be something to keep watch over the next week or two, but there is a fair chance it will stay out to sea also.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98028 - Wed Aug 30 2017 03:32 PM

12Z models for Irma.

12Z GFS has Irma staying north of the Caribbean, but a hurricane by this Saturday, and recurving, but gets very close to Bermuda September 10th as a major hurricane.

12Z Euro has it a Hurricane on Sunday also, clips the Northeast Caribbean islands as cat 2/3 next Wednesday, Over the VI and Puerto on Sep 7 as a major hurricane, and continues through the Southeast and Central Bahamas as a major 0n the 8 & 9th where the model run ends.

HWRF and HMON keep it north of the Caribbean islands.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98029 - Thu Aug 31 2017 07:58 AM

Irma overnight runs:

6Z GFS Hurricane later today, maintains it, keeps it north of the Caribbean, cat 3/4 landfall near outer banks on Sep 10th.

0Z Euro, over Northeastern Caribbean, PR, on Wednesday, cat 2 hurricane, just north of Hispaniola by Friday, riding northern coast of Cuba at the end of the run on the 10th.

CMC misses Caribbean to the north,

GEFS Ensembles the majority of runs recurve, (good news)

Euro ensembles closer over the Bahamas, though.

Splitting the difference keeps it a threat to the US in play, ne Caribbean also. Still a long ways out, but it will be important to watch over the next week or two. The wildcard is the potential Gulf system, which could affect the track of Irma.

Both Euro and the GFS trended west.

If it were to affect the US, timeframe would likely be Sep 10-12th.


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doug
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98031 - Thu Aug 31 2017 08:43 AM

I agree that development in the WGOM would allow a weakening in the ATL ridge that would allow a stronger storm to move more northward, so it is key for us to note whether a system does actually develop in the SW GOM over the next few days or not. The stronger the ridge the more south and west the track will be. The present Euro track is not favorable...

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #98032 - Thu Aug 31 2017 10:12 AM

One notable thing about the pattern is that Irma's set up to become a very large hurricane (area wise), probably larger than the state of Florida. Which means it'll likely be a big surge generator, usually keeps the winds down (usually).

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JMII
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98036 - Thu Aug 31 2017 11:24 AM

Irma looks really good for a storm so far east and so early in its development. Tight core, good outflow, almost has an eye already. NHC has upgraded to a 'Cane as of 11 AM update.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98037 - Thu Aug 31 2017 12:54 PM

Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) notes that with regard to the most recent ECMWF, which has a wide spread later in the period, the CFAN Wx/Climate EPS "High Probability Cluster" shows the best ensemble members (by initialization score) favor the Gulf.

Something to watch over the next few days to see if the other Euro members come into line with this (along with other globals, such as the GFS.)




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Reaper
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98038 - Thu Aug 31 2017 01:23 PM

It will be interesting to see if it passes through Hebert Box 1 as a major and what that will mean.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #98040 - Thu Aug 31 2017 02:59 PM

euro has it moving west, goes through northeast of the Caribbean Wednesday then ends the run in the Florida Straits on Sep 10th.

GFS has no Caribbean or US landfall, but takes the storm into Nova Scotia in Canada sept 12th.

Reality will probably be somewhere in the middle.

We're not sure about the Caribbean yet, much less beyond, so that's about where it stands now. Something to watch very closely.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #98041 - Thu Aug 31 2017 03:42 PM

Quote:

It will be interesting to see if it passes through Hebert Box 1 as a major and what that will mean.



I am watching this myself....I have been fascinated with the Hebert boxes since I learned about them (on this site). I know they are not a sure thing but it is an interesting observation. I have added them to my tracking charts for easy reference. With every model trend toward the south it increases the chance of a pass-through.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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JMII
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #98042 - Thu Aug 31 2017 05:40 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I have been fascinated with the Hebert boxes since I learned about them (on this site).




I love how the South Florida Water Management District has the eastern "box" outlined on their graphics, oddly the western one isn't highlighted.

Irma certain got her act together quickly. From TS to Cat 3 in no time at all. Current pattern has a large, oblong blocking High (over Bermuda as typical for this time of year) but that high has a weakness in the middle. This is why the current Irma track goes NW then W then SW then back W in a lazy wobble over the next 5 days.

So the question is: does the H erode enough to let Irma turn N and finally curve out to sea.? Or does the weakness in the high close up and force Irma on a long track west?

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98045 - Fri Sep 01 2017 12:36 AM

Is it my imagination or is the NHC track leaning toward the EURO ensemble? So many models on the north side of NHC but the EURO is south and west of those....it might just be my rather limited understanding of how NHC figures its track....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #98046 - Fri Sep 01 2017 12:43 AM

It's probably a slight bias to the Euro, but the 5 day track is pretty similar regardless.

new model runs:

0zGFS slightly south of last run, but missed the NE Caribbean entirely, gets real close to the Outer banks on Sep 10 clips the outer banks as a cat 4, landfall near Virginia Beach Sep 10th.

0z CMC misses Caribbean to the north, barely, Cat 4 in the central Bahamas Sept 8, weakens to cat 2, landfall in upper keys Sep 10, rides up through Nples, and Just west of Ft. Myers at the end of the run.


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