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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98528 - Thu Sep 07 2017 08:26 PM

Quote:

This board is eerily quiet. Are we all waiting for the 00Z model runs?




I think reality is setting in, we are looking a potential state wide disaster. On top of that one look at Jose's track makes you sick.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: MichaelA]
      #98529 - Thu Sep 07 2017 08:28 PM

We have "Hurricane Canvas" to cover the windows and sliding doors on the newer part of our home, and lined up a reputable guy to come by tomorrow to put up plywood on our older windows. (First time ever!)

But, even though the websites say otherwise, Home Depot and Lowes around here appear to be completely sold out.

Oh well, still thinking it will miss us to the East, but the nervous energy in Florida is at an all time high. I would suspect many times higher than at the period of Andrew approaching. We just hope the paranoia and fear is unfounded primarily based on media hype and not based on the ripples of time working backwards.


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98533 - Thu Sep 07 2017 08:41 PM

Quote:

This board is eerily quiet. Are we all waiting for the 00Z model runs?




Not much to say that hasn't been said already. I think we're all in agreement on a Westward shift in the models. I'm watching the Westward wobble to see if it becomes a trend.

--------------------
Matt


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98534 - Thu Sep 07 2017 09:04 PM

Pressure down to 919

--------------------
Matt


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98536 - Thu Sep 07 2017 09:19 PM

Accuweather stinks..... they are never "LIVE" and they spend most of the time talking about the western 2/3 of the country... and there is no local weather.... How does any cable company pick them up!!..

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98537 - Thu Sep 07 2017 09:21 PM

Back to Irma.... has she already started her more W movement I think of around 275dg?? .... If so, this might have the UKMET as being correct and it might make landfall in 24hrs or so in N Cuba or skim the coastline

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98539 - Thu Sep 07 2017 09:27 PM

Dug the generator out from where it has been hidden for over 10 years tonight...the sheet is real. Called mom and planning to get her battened down and bring her back here Saturday morning. If the current track or anything west confirms, I will put my shuttering up late Saturday (on the north side at least) and decide on the south side Sunday morning....unless I say screw it and just do the whole thing Saturday....not as young as I was 10 years ago. Trying to find space in garages for all of the cars....also may have to do something to the house next door which is vacant and owned by a friend who is in Bermuda. Lots to do and hopefully plenty of time to do it!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98541 - Thu Sep 07 2017 10:02 PM

Quote:

Back to Irma.... has she already started her more W movement I think of around 275dg?? .... If so, this might have the UKMET as being correct and it might make landfall in 24hrs or so in N Cuba or skim the coastline




Yeah, they''d be the geniuses. Doesn't have to keep it up much longer before those tall mountains on that side of Cuba start affecting it. Seems like they've started already, Haiti definitely has.


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bahamaweather
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Loc: Abaco, Bahamas 26.39N 77.09W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98544 - Thu Sep 07 2017 10:31 PM

I can definitely see the western movement. Didn't most of the models, including the GFS and Euro show a western movement before the hook to the north?

I can't remember- I've been looking at too many models.

At this point I guess it's down to timing- it looks like the route of escape for Florida is just about done.

--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chance]
      #98545 - Thu Sep 07 2017 10:39 PM

Quote:

chance:
Can someone tell me what effect Sarasota would have if the center went right where the 5pm update has it? i know it can change either way but just if it went where the 5pm update has it right up the middle of the state what effect do you think i would get in Sarasota thanks i am just trying to fogure out weather to leave or stay.




Here is a visual with a Florida outline superimposed over Irma in the same scale:



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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Prospero]
      #98551 - Thu Sep 07 2017 11:26 PM

11:00 PM update, my heart sank a little...

OK, speaking for everyone on the west coast of Florida:

All of us wishing for Irma to stay east of us is in no way reflective of how much we much we love you and care about your safety, your lives, families, homes, possessions, and everything else. We are just terrified to think of Irma running up the super warm waters just off to our east pushing the Gulf of Mexico into our towns with Cat anything force wind.

Our beautiful west coast Florida hasn't been tore up in a while. We are not eager for the next time.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Prospero]
      #98553 - Thu Sep 07 2017 11:44 PM

0z GFS goes back east 30 miles at least

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98554 - Thu Sep 07 2017 11:47 PM

Quote:

0z GFS goes back east 30 miles at least




Can't we just ignore the GFS...it hasn't been remotely accurate throughout the entire history of this storm....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98555 - Thu Sep 07 2017 11:47 PM

Quote:

0z GFS goes back east 30 miles at least




00z NAM is now curving to the point of missing FL, GA, SC, and NC. Thats... unexpected.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Bloodstar]
      #98556 - Thu Sep 07 2017 11:52 PM

Nam is garbage.. we look at it for laughs... it doesn't do well with Tropical Systems

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USF893
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98557 - Fri Sep 08 2017 12:00 AM

The NHC "model" has been the most accurate so far.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Bloodstar]
      #98558 - Fri Sep 08 2017 12:10 AM

Quote:

00z NAM is now curving to the point of missing FL, GA, SC, and NC. Thats... unexpected.




NAM is about the last model I consider for tropical cyclones, but that is interesting. The larger trend is mostly baked in with the best TC track guidance. Florida and/or Southeast. Large system, with impacts likely direct hit or not.


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WestFLJess
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 9
Loc: Tampa Bay
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98560 - Fri Sep 08 2017 12:16 AM

Post deleted by Cieldumort

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 08 2017 01:39 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: WestFLJess]
      #98563 - Fri Sep 08 2017 12:36 AM

I don't know if you're kidding or not with the XTRP but that isn't a model.. it's a current extrapolated movement it's current moving at.. example.. if Irma is moving around 285dg.. it will show that in XTRP the direction of 285dg.

CMC also slightly east also.. but I only weigh that slightly over the Nam... I like the Euro with this....GFS out to 48hrs and UKMet solutions


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98569 - Fri Sep 08 2017 02:29 AM

Euro is slightly west with landfall middle keys and up thru to Labelle,Fl between Ft Myers and Lake Okeechobee by 0Z Monday (72hrs)

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