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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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ftlaudbob
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Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98047 - Fri Sep 01 2017 06:13 AM

Still a long way out, but by late next week.the north east may be under the gun.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98048 - Fri Sep 01 2017 07:27 AM

Morning runs, better trends

0z euro clips the northeast Caribbean Thursday, then stays north (but close) of the Bahamas and ends the run with a recurve setup.

6Z GFS misses Caribbean to the north and recurves out to sea (west of Bermuda)

Slightly more than half of the GEFS ensembles show recruve now as well.

Hopefully this trend continues.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98049 - Fri Sep 01 2017 10:26 AM

New England landfall?



--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98050 - Fri Sep 01 2017 10:52 AM

Not being sarcastic, but with those plots, it could land anywhere??

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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ftlaudbob
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Reged: Tue
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Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98051 - Fri Sep 01 2017 10:54 AM

Quote:

Not being sarcastic, but with those plots, it could land anywhere??




I think the GOM is safe.
Right now it looks like somewhere on the east coast or a fish spinner.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Sep 01 2017 10:55 AM)


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ftlaudbob
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Reged: Tue
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Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98052 - Fri Sep 01 2017 11:22 AM


At this point, Southern New England would need some luck not to at the very least get effects from Hurricane Irma.I call it the tunnel effect.A High to the east and a trough to the west, and the storm has nowhere to go but stay in between them. Long way off,but that is my take at this moment in time.






Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Sep 01 2017 12:52 PM)


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JMII
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98053 - Fri Sep 01 2017 12:57 PM

Quote:

I call it the tunnel effect.A High to the east and a trough to the west, and the storm has nowhere to go but stay in between them.




Yes this tunnel, window or gap (whatever word you want) arrival timing with Irma will be the key. However the other factor will be her latitude during the trek west. If she stays low she could miss the gap. However the models are trending North which allows the trough to scoop her up and away. At that point her size would determine how much the NE coast feels as she races by.

Her shape today is classic 'cane - round with really good outflow, just a bit small and some dry air ahead to fight thru.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Irma Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98054 - Fri Sep 01 2017 01:01 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I call it the tunnel effect.A High to the east and a trough to the west, and the storm has nowhere to go but stay in between them.




Yes this tunnel, window or gap (whatever word you want) arrival timing with Irma will be the key. However the other factor will be her latitude during the trek west. If she stays low she could miss the gap. However the models are trending North which allows the trough to scoop her up and away. At that point her size would determine how much the NE coast feels as she races by.

Her shape today is classic 'cane - round with really good outflow, just a bit small and some dry air ahead to fight thru.




Agree it is going to have a lot to do with timing.Here are the latest runs,You can see the tunnel effect.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98056 - Fri Sep 01 2017 06:19 PM

Today's model runs are a bit better news, mainly for the Caribbean islands, beyond that is still too soon to tell.

18Z GFS keeps the storm well north of the Caribbean islands, and east of the Bahamas, where the run ends, its a bit east, beyond that it's a bit odd but its still worth watching as it shows a landfall in western Long island on Sep 10th.

12Z Euro also keeps it (Barely) north of the Caribbean islands, but close enough for concern, the south side likely would be the weaker side (right of the eye is usually the strongest) It does get dangerously close to the Bahamas also by Sep 10/11th, closest to Florida on the 12th, east of the state, and moving fairly slowly. The trough toward the end of the Euro is the thing to watch if it would push it more into the coast.

In short, better news for the Caribbean, although they will still need to watch it very closely, but the official track is also leaning toward keeping it north. Beyond that is too soon to tell, impacts along the East coast are possible, but direct impact (landfall) is marginally less likely, but the future beyond 5 days is extremely uncertain. There is a good deal of risk that it could landfall along the US coast, more than most systems Still plenty of time to watch it, and there is no reason to hype this system other than being aware of it. This system is 10-12 days out and it is way too early to jump to any sort of conclusion any more than that at this point is probably hype. Watch and have a plan if you are along the east coast (particularly NC/VA/MD/DE/NJ/NY) although the GEFS says Florida, and watch, of course, in the Northeast Caribbean.

So in short just keep watching.


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98057 - Fri Sep 01 2017 06:54 PM

Five days is a long time in Hurricane forecasting!

Just for fun, this was a post on August 20th with Harvey 5 days out from landfall:

Quote:

cieldumort (Sun Aug 20 2017 12:12 PM ):
WSI Calibrated ECMWF EPS now showing a greater than 90% chance that Harvey regenerates.

While the GFS runs should not yet be fully discounted, it is my personal opinion that the new GFS (since the July 19 upgrade) has not performed as admirably with Atlantic tropical cyclones as might be desired, and even in the face of a dramatic convective resurgence this morning, the latest runs (20/0z, 20/06z and now the 20/12z) still do mostly nothing with now x-Harvey... maybe a TD crossing Belize, or forming in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, at best. These runs now run entirely counter to the Euro, and defy the eyes.

Now awaiting the restarting of the TC-specific models HWRF & HMON. Run, runs, run.




Next post:

Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 01:43 PM ):
Harvey looks alive and well.Should be an upgrade soon.





And then...


Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 10:56 PM ):
And just like that, it died out again.





Harvey did not die, and by the morning of August 22nd it was a totally different story:

Quote:

cieldumort (Tue Aug 22 2017 09:30 AM ):
Model consensus for south Texas this Friday is growing much more concerning. HWRF, HMON, GFS, ECMWF, GEM & GFS Ensemble Members with almost 100% unanimity on a landfalling Texas hurricane Cat 1 to Major. Some runs hang it around just inland, others around the coast - with potential for very severe flooding if either of those scenarios verify (inland and/or coastal)...





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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98058 - Fri Sep 01 2017 07:58 PM

Quote:

Five days is a long time in Hurricane forecasting!

Just for fun, this was a post on August 20th with Harvey 5 days out from landfall:

Quote:

cieldumort (Sun Aug 20 2017 12:12 PM ):
WSI Calibrated ECMWF EPS now showing a greater than 90% chance that Harvey regenerates.

While the GFS runs should not yet be fully discounted, it is my personal opinion that the new GFS (since the July 19 upgrade) has not performed as admirably with Atlantic tropical cyclones as might be desired, and even in the face of a dramatic convective resurgence this morning, the latest runs (20/0z, 20/06z and now the 20/12z) still do mostly nothing with now x-Harvey... maybe a TD crossing Belize, or forming in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, at best. These runs now run entirely counter to the Euro, and defy the eyes.

Now awaiting the restarting of the TC-specific models HWRF & HMON. Run, runs, run.




Next post:

Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 01:43 PM ):
Harvey looks alive and well.Should be an upgrade soon.





And then...


Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 10:56 PM ):
And just like that, it died out again.





Harvey did not die, and by the morning of August 22nd it was a totally different story:

Quote:

cieldumort (Tue Aug 22 2017 09:30 AM ):
Model consensus for south Texas this Friday is growing much more concerning. HWRF, HMON, GFS, ECMWF, GEM & GFS Ensemble Members with almost 100% unanimity on a landfalling Texas hurricane Cat 1 to Major. Some runs hang it around just inland, others around the coast - with potential for very severe flooding if either of those scenarios verify (inland and/or coastal)...








Yes,that is how it went down.Havey was dead on the 20th.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Sep 01 2017 07:59 PM)


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98059 - Fri Sep 01 2017 08:31 PM

Quote:

Yes,that is how it went down.Havey was dead on the 20th.




Yup, Harvey was dead, a blurry splash of clouds on a sat, and barely that.

Been looking at Hurricane history. Katrina five days out from LA, was approaching and landing on south FL as a Cat 1...no mention of New Orleans.

On August 13, 2004 Charlie did a sudden hard right, so Port Charlotte and everybody else in its path was taken by surprise even though aware there was a storm passing by. That was less than a few hour judo move from the predictions that nailed Tampa Bay and barely four days since Charlie was named.

So until Irma is two or three days out, all bets are off with me.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98061 - Fri Sep 01 2017 08:46 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Yes,that is how it went down.Havey was dead on the 20th.




Yup, Harvey was dead, a blurry splash of clouds on a sat, and barely that.

Been looking at Hurricane history. Katrina five days out from LA, was approaching and landing on south FL as a Cat 1...no mention of New Orleans.

On August 13, 2004 Charlie did a sudden hard right, so Port Charlotte and everybody else in its path was taken by surprise even though aware there was a storm passing by. That was less than a few hour judo move from the predictions that nailed Tampa Bay and barely four days since Charlie was named.

So until Irma is two or three days out, all bets are off with me.




I was in Fort Lauderdale for Katrina.And Wilma later that season.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Sep 01 2017 08:46 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98067 - Sat Sep 02 2017 07:43 AM

Morning model runs:

0z Euro: Very close but just north of the Caribbean Islands Tues-Wed, Through the Central and northwest Bahamas sep 9-11th. Cat 4 landfall near Charleston, SC overnight Sep 11-12th.

6z GFS: Misses Caribbean and Bahamas, turns north, closest approach to NC on sep 10 (faster than Euro), landfall near Atlantic City, NJ in the morning of Sep 10th. cat 3. and quickly moves out.

HWRF has cat 4 north of the Caribbean islands, HMON as well.

Canadian misses Caribbean and Bahamas and turns Irma out to sea (West of Bermuda, East of the US)

The GFS Ensembles concentrate around NC/VA this morning.

Two camps are faster moving storm GFS/GEFS that moves further north and the euro which has a slower moving storm, caught behind and further south. Euro also has a stronger storm and is much more dangerous for the Bahamas.

Too soon to tell beyond 5 days, but looking better for the Eastern Caribbean islands, but mixed for the Bahamas, and east coast seems more likely than not for a landfall. Where is still up in the air, SC/NC/VA seems to be the current midpoint. But FL/GA and north of VA still have a high chance, but unless the timing drastically changes Florida seems less likely. Out to sea is still a possibility as well, more likely than Florida.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98069 - Sat Sep 02 2017 12:40 PM

12Z GFS:

Misses Bahamas to the north, landfall Delmarva Peninsula as a cat 4 on the morning of Sep 11 then quickly moves over DC and into the great lakes from there.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98070 - Sat Sep 02 2017 02:31 PM

12Z Euro running, a bit south of the last run so far, this time it goes through or clips the islands of the Northeast Caribbean on Wednesday, comes close or clips the Turks and Caicos in the bahamas, but stays mostly north of them on Friday. Then turns out to sea.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98071 - Sat Sep 02 2017 03:52 PM

The Euro ensembles are mostly west of the Euro operational itself. A lot depends on the position of the trough currently over the eastern half of the country, in a few days it may split and move southwest (more likelihood of US impact), stay over the mid Atlantic (more likely for out to sea), or slip northeast (steering collapses and Irma meanders near the Bahamas for a bit). The setup for the trough/ridge is really quite delicate, so even several days from now we may not have a good idea. The operation Euro is slipping through a narrow window, so there's a fair chance the Euro will change again in the overnight run.

Current focus should on how close it gets to the Northeastern Caribbean islands, beyond that too soon to tell.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98072 - Sat Sep 02 2017 06:32 PM

18z GFS avoids the Caribbean barely, stays east of the Bahamas, grazes the outer banks and landfalls as a cat 4 on the south end of the delmarva peninsula the morning of Sep 11th (monday) then heads toward DC/Baltimore. I know that area has had history with "I" storms before.

Overall thoughts, Mid Atlantic most risk, then Northeast, followed by out to sea, and then Florida/GA least risk. It's going to get uncomfortably close to the NE Caribbean, Bahamas may get some of it also. Confidence in general is staggeringly low.





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BloodstarModerator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98073 - Sat Sep 02 2017 09:01 PM

I am starting to suspect the US has run out of luck. If the models hold up, Irma will be pretty brutal if and when it makes landfall.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #98074 - Sat Sep 02 2017 09:42 PM

Quote:

I am starting to suspect the US has run out of luck. If the models hold up, Irma will be pretty brutal if and when it makes landfall.




What are your thoughts on landfall?

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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