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#Maria affecting DR, Approaching Turks and Caicos, but very likely to stay well east of the mainland US. PR seeing the last bands today.
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98623 - Fri Sep 08 2017 06:50 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Was worried about being able to get back from Sebring -> East Coast




I'm worried about just getting one block down the street. That is after climbing out from under a house that has an oak tree sitting on top of it.

Quote:

Don't be a wobble watcher!




But are these wobbles or trends? Yesterday we had plenty of the "wiper effect" with the models flipping back and forth - east coast / west coast. 20 miles here or there suddenly starts to add up. I know Andrew was much smaller/more compact system but as I posted a few days ago (feels like weeks) there was a remarkable difference in damage from southern Broward, to central Dade, to southern Dade.

Irma looks to encounter some strong shear (finally!) about 1/2 way up the state which should allow some weakening during her run north. Right now that is what I'm counting on.




But it is now forecast to go back up to a 5 at landfall.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3500
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98624 - Fri Sep 08 2017 07:05 PM

Latest NHC forecast forecasts Irma at a Cat 5 Landfall.

36H 10/0600Z 2 AM EDT early Sunday Morning
24.1N 81.0W 140 KT 160 MPH.

Category 5 begins at 139 knots. So Yes. At this time Landfall as a Cat 5.

The Lat/ Long given above is just South of Vaca Key in the Florida Straits

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 08 2017 07:09 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3862
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #98625 - Fri Sep 08 2017 07:27 PM



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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 289
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #98626 - Fri Sep 08 2017 07:30 PM

Going to be hard for her to avoid hitting Cuba, tracking very closely to due W. Has come N maybe .3 degrees in the last 5 hours?
NHC's next forecast position looks spot on.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3500
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98627 - Fri Sep 08 2017 08:03 PM

Yes Mike and NWS Key West. You do have time to Get Out.

I hate to use those words. But Get Out and Get High.
Get out of the Islands and Low Lying areas and try to get at lease 20 feet above sea level. If at all possible.


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.67N 81.73W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98628 - Fri Sep 08 2017 08:11 PM

Thank you Mike. Not just for this post, but for all you do for this site and for those of us who come here for information.

I was out a little bit tonight and I can tell you everyone I've seen in Ft. Myers is taking this storm very seriously and getting as prepared as best they can. It's encouraging to see that. All of us here remember Charley very well and know that things can change drastically in a short period of time.


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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MissBecky]
      #98629 - Fri Sep 08 2017 08:27 PM

Looks like it's sorting out the eye-wall and tightening up just as it's about to rake across the Cuba coastline. And perhaps q little further onshore than expected. Bad news for Cuba.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 289
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98630 - Fri Sep 08 2017 08:35 PM

Quote:

Looks like it's sorting out the eye-wall and tightening up just as it's about to rake across the Cuba coastline.




Noticed that as well, eye was ragged but the core is building again. Visible on the floater image: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-rb-long.html outflow seems limited on NW side is she starting to feel the trough? You can see the lower levels of weather moving SW from Lake O.

95 miles from Irma's center is Ignacio Agramonte International - winds are W at 60. They were WNW and just turned. Pressure still appears to be dropping.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)

Edited by JMII (Fri Sep 08 2017 08:40 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3500
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MissBecky]
      #98632 - Fri Sep 08 2017 09:11 PM


Very good web page for the 4 main questions. Wind, Surge, Rainfall and Tornado Threats.

NWS Southern Region Tropical Threat Page


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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #98633 - Fri Sep 08 2017 09:21 PM

Could be a wobble, who knows, but a little in this case is a lot. It's about half the width of the now smaller eye-wall further inland. Puts the right hand quadrant over the barrier islands.

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98634 - Fri Sep 08 2017 09:52 PM

Any radar we can watch as she interacts with Cuba?

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 94
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98635 - Fri Sep 08 2017 09:57 PM

Wobble or not It sure looks as though Irma is heading into Cuba. Almost 1/2 the eye looks to be moving on shore.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3862
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #98636 - Fri Sep 08 2017 10:04 PM

Quote:

Any radar we can watch as she interacts with Cuba?




http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?301 has the cuban radar (over a long period)

A lot more Irma recordings are here http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 289
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98637 - Fri Sep 08 2017 10:14 PM

On the floater she is south of her forecast position. The floater is too zoomed out, so I switched to Wundergrounds Wunder Map.
Coming ashore in Cuba.
Pressure falling at the airport, winds up to 67 mph out of the WSW with Irma's eye 50 miles due north.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 94
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98638 - Fri Sep 08 2017 10:20 PM

The only models that I recall bringing Irma onshore Cuba were CMC and HMON.

Edited by M.A. (Fri Sep 08 2017 10:32 PM)


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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98639 - Fri Sep 08 2017 10:38 PM

Quote:

The only models that I recall bringing Irma onshore Cuba were CMC and HMON.


1

They backed off a little at 1200 but UKMET has been predicting the Cuba adventure all along. I don't know what 0000 is.

There's some mountains in there, that eye goes totally inland, it has to take a lot of the energy away. And seems more likely a westward shift too. Could change everything.


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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98640 - Fri Sep 08 2017 10:49 PM

Irma has been bogged down in the area of Cuba where she is now for quite a while. If not for this, Irma would be further west by now. Do you think that this could move the forecast a bit east since Irma won't be as far west when she makes her anticipated NW and then N turn?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3500
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: pincty]
      #98643 - Fri Sep 08 2017 11:00 PM

NHC just bumped Irma to Category 5

..IRMA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 08 2017 11:01 PM)


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98644 - Fri Sep 08 2017 11:02 PM

Quote:

On the floater she is south of her forecast position. The floater is too zoomed out, so I switched to Wundergrounds Wunder Map.
Coming ashore in Cuba.
Pressure falling at the airport, winds up to 67 mph out of the WSW with Irma's eye 50 miles due north.




I'm using weathernerds.org and using the Zoom Feature. Really fascinating and unexpected. Does not appear to be making the north turn, though there was a NW jog a frame or two ago. The next few hours could change everything, or nothing.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3500
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #98645 - Fri Sep 08 2017 11:08 PM

Former Director of the National Hurricane Center Dr Rick Knabb has asked everyone still in the Florida Keys right now.

To leave tonight to prevent Fatalities in the Keys.


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