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#Maria affecting DR, Approaching Turks and Caicos, but very likely to stay well east of the mainland US. PR seeing the last bands today.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Maria) , Major: 2 (Maria) Florida - Any: 12 (Irma) Major: 12 (Irma)
39.3N 69.1W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
Se at 3 mph
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31.9N 49.2W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1009mb
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N at 6 mph
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24.8N 72.0W
Wind: 120MPH
Pres: 952mb
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Nnw at 9 mph
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1594
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Steve H1]
      #98670 - Sat Sep 09 2017 04:49 AM

Quote:

Is this a zone in Cuba that the US still needs permission to traverse with RECON?




AF98-5307 is entering her center right now, passed right through strongest (NW) eyewall and found top winds of about 120 MPH with pressures up to perhaps low 940s... edit 937.. still flying in

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Sep 09 2017 04:52 AM)


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OrlandoDan
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 339
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98671 - Sat Sep 09 2017 04:58 AM

Is it generally true that weaker storms are not effected by troughs as much as stronger storms?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1594
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98672 - Sat Sep 09 2017 05:05 AM

5AM Advisory is out 155/930, but this looks like continuity created before the most recent recon. I'm not really seeing anything in the current pass to support winds above 120 MPH or pressures lower than 935... but, the center is mostly, albeit barely, over 'water.'
Quote:

5:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 9
Location: 22.5°N 78.8°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 930 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph




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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1594
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98673 - Sat Sep 09 2017 05:11 AM

A few key items of note per this most recent Vort -
Quote:


A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 8:38:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°29'N 78°47'W (22.4833N 78.7833W)
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NNW (337°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 69° at 112kts (From the ENE at ~ 128.9mph)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 935mb (27.61 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)





Highlights: Eye is still closed, 935mb, still very warm core, max surface wind per SFMR 119.7 MPH, center 22.48N 78.78W


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 145
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98675 - Sat Sep 09 2017 05:53 AM

41 mph gust on Key West at 5:40 am. Alligator Reef Light had a 58 mph gust.

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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Wacissa, FL 30.42N 83.95W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98676 - Sat Sep 09 2017 05:55 AM

"48H 11/0600Z 27.7N 82.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND"

Maybe, but those coordinates are right at NWS Tampa Bay in Ruskin. Hope the wind shear takes it's toll, but more concerned about a continued west trend, all over water through Apalachee Bay.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 289
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98677 - Sat Sep 09 2017 06:29 AM

Quote:

5AM Advisory is out 155/930, but this looks like continuity created before the most recent recon. I'm not really seeing anything in the current pass to support winds above 120 MPH or pressures lower than 935




Are they afraid people will let their guard down?

We are returning home to Margate, seems like a safe call, winds could be way worst here in Sebring give current track and model guidance.

Traffic on 75 across the Alley looks normal, guess people in Naples aren't running and sheltering in place.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Ronn
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Marknole]
      #98678 - Sat Sep 09 2017 06:42 AM

This is definitely looking like one of those rare tracks that will take Irma parallel to the FL west coast, at or just inland. Cuba is taking a toll on Irma's top winds, but the overall circulation still looks good. We can only hope that Irma doesn't re-ignite once over the Florida Straits and SE Gulf. Many of the models, unfortunately, call for re-intensification and there is nothing that should prohibit this in the next 24 hours. I doubt Irma will regain Cat 5 strength, but all bets are off in the warm waters of the SE Gulf. The upper level winds are fairly hostile over the northern Gulf and maybe they will infringe on Irma sooner rather than later. We'll see.

I think the Euro has performed exceptionally well with this system compared to other models (GFS, HWRF) which have consistently been too far north and east. Even the Navgem has done better than those models, though its bias has been too far west. It's looking like a coastal runner up the west coast, unfortunately. My thinking right now is that Irma will weaken to high Cat 2-low Cat3 in the next 12 hours, followed by re-intensification to mid-upper Cat 3 along FL's west coast. The broad circulation may make it more difficult to spin up at the last moment ala Charley. At least that's what I am hoping.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3862
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Ronn]
      #98679 - Sat Sep 09 2017 06:59 AM

0z Euro shows Irma going fairly well inland into Cuba (more than it actually is, apparently,, watching it closely though) Does not turn it significantly to the north until around midnight. Landfall over Key West mid morning tomorrow Cat 4, Landfall near Port Charlotte/Venice tomorrow night, Cat 4. Over Tampa, Cat 3, then just inland along the west coast passing into Georgia east of Tallahassee. A shift west, but waiting for confirmation of the short term path.


6Z GFS moves Irma a bit more into Cuba, then start the turn north late tonight, Cat 4 landfall west of Marathon Key around noon tomorrow (slower), landfall just east of Naples Cat 4, Near Wauchula Monday morning cat 3 moving toward Gainesville, and into Georgia by Monday evening. More or less just a slight west jog, but very similar to the earlier run.


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B.C.Francis
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Ronn]
      #98680 - Sat Sep 09 2017 07:40 AM

I certainly agree with you about the Euro. It has been doing a good job all season and the NHC has been almost spot on. With Irma skating a little inland on the Cuban coast, could this possibly take the wind out so to speak in some of the storms sails. Not sure on the lay out of the land area it will be clipping

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OrlandoDan
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 339
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #98686 - Sat Sep 09 2017 08:12 AM

Cuba certainly is having its effects to Irma. I also still see good symetric outflow on the western half of Irma. Not that usual "wall" associated with a cane making a turn to the north. It is possible that the models will shift west again.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98687 - Sat Sep 09 2017 08:38 AM

Until the turn happens.. they might slightly.. I think the 12Z might be the last of the west trend in the models (thru landfall) cause the turn should slow start later this evening.

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IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 53
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98689 - Sat Sep 09 2017 09:05 AM

Thank goodness the southern eyewall tangled with the north coast of Cuba this am. Looking a bit better for Port Charlotte/Tampa, still bad for Key West/Everglades City up to Naples. I think the "turn" may end up being sharper than the current forecast when Irma finally pulls away from Cuba given weaker hurricane.

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OrlandoDan
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Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: IsoFlame]
      #98690 - Sat Sep 09 2017 10:11 AM

I thought weaker storms are less responsive to troughs. No?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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chance
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98692 - Sat Sep 09 2017 10:30 AM

Quote:

I thought weaker storms are less responsive to troughs. No?





Weaker storms like a TS or low end cat 1 but we are talking about still a 2 most likely a 3 and maybe a low 4 but this is not going to be weak enough for that to happen.


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scottsvb
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98693 - Sat Sep 09 2017 11:01 AM

Everything is responsive to troughs.. from a TD to a Cat 5... some people say Cat5 can maybe create it's own steering but that's false.. it can help build up the ridge around it and cause a trough on it's back tail side but it can't just go through a trough..Fronts/troughs are like barriers.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98694 - Sat Sep 09 2017 11:08 AM

Another west shift. Extreme S FL about to become cone free.
Keys under the gun, followed by the west coast. Very Charley-like except no NE turn this time.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Bschucher
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98695 - Sat Sep 09 2017 11:19 AM

Any reason to expect ANY sort of easterly return going forward?

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scottsvb
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Bschucher]
      #98696 - Sat Sep 09 2017 11:32 AM

No.. the main question becomes slowly.. does this thing go of even Clearwater and most of the hurricane force winds just in the keys and along the immediate coast? right now.. no.. it looks on target for a Ft Myers-Naples landfall. 12Z runs of the GFS and Euro-Ukmet will give us the landfall (within 1 dg) in 24-30hrs

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chance
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 13
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98697 - Sat Sep 09 2017 11:43 AM

Quote:

No.. the main question becomes slowly.. does this thing stay we of even Clearwater and most of the hurricane force winds just in the keys and along the immediate coast? right now.. no.. it looks on target for a Ft Myers-Naples landfall. 12Z runs of the GFS and Euro-Ukmet will give us the landfall (within 1 dg) in 24-30hrs




The GFS is out the 12Z and is a little more east by a hair then last run. I guess it is showing the Naples landfall


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