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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: Wacissa, FL 30.42N 83.95W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: MissBecky]
      #98809 - Sun Sep 10 2017 11:32 AM

Marco Island is longitude 81.7. Irma is currently 81.5. So yes, Collier (big!) County landfall looks likely, hopefully east of Naples - more sparsely populated. But what's with Marco Island's bad luck? Wasn't that landfall for Wilma??

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Corkhill1
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Costa Rica
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98810 - Sun Sep 10 2017 11:33 AM

This 11am NHC movement of the forecast line a little east should notch up the Orlando winds

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Corkhill1]
      #98811 - Sun Sep 10 2017 11:36 AM

Last couple frames of radar look like a NW motion.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #98813 - Sun Sep 10 2017 11:53 AM

Quote:

The motion has been virtually to the North since at least 7:15 a.m. The over all shape of the system is elongated north-south. The west side has been affected by the dry air moving over the GOM, and it is affecting its structure, IMO.. Sky here has lifted and brightened considerably in the last hour and on the satellite that is revealed by white in the north west quadrant..barometers here have been steady for a while now at about 29.66




I do think you are are having a bout of wishful thinking. While there is dry air to her West, It doesn't look to be doing much to her overall structure other than elongating it. It's certainly not infiltrating the core...at least not that I can see on any wv imagery. The sky has lifted and brightened because you all are in between rain bands and not quite yet under the CDO. At least that's how I see it on visible.

Also, Charley was supposed to turn to the NE. It just did it before the NHC thought it was going to. Irma is forecasted to turn NW. Turning to the NE would mean that the NHC's forecast (and all of the models) are completely wrong. Besides, I don't see how she can go any further East than she already has because of the Atlantic ridge.

--------------------
Matt


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98815 - Sun Sep 10 2017 12:01 PM

Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but I would not have put that out there if the actual observable data did not support my opinion. The structure of Irma has been hampered significantly by the dry air infiltrating from the NW. The Charley affect I mention was the drying up of the northwest and westerly portions of the storm which left only a core and shunted it to the NE much earlier than expected. I live only about 20 miles west from where Charley caused considerable damage but we got virtually no dangerous weather as it flew past. Today is very similar to that here...the rain seems to be evaporating into small amounts or a mist....still getting gusty winds but far less rain than expected or advertised. Certainly that is a reason to be optimistic...

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Sun Sep 10 2017 12:09 PM)


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 26
Loc: Jupiter, Fl 26.90N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98816 - Sun Sep 10 2017 12:03 PM

Quote:

Last couple frames of radar look like a NW motion.




SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 81.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

Still the 350 degrees that was reported at 11am...

--------------------
--------------------------------
2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #98817 - Sun Sep 10 2017 12:17 PM

Quote:

Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but I would not have put that out there if the actual observable data did not support my opinion. The structure of Irma has been hampered significantly by the dry air infiltrating from the NW. The Charley affect I mention was the drying up of the northwest and westerly portions of the storm which left only a core and shunted it to the NE much earlier than expected. I live only about 20 miles west from where Charley caused considerable damage but we got virtually no dangerous weather as it flew past. Today is very similar to that here...the rain seems to be evaporating into small amounts or a mist....still getting gusty winds but far less rain than expected or advertised. Certainly that is a reason to be optimistic...




Well, here's to hoping! My 11-year-old son lives in Parrish with his mother, so I hope you're right.

--------------------
Matt


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Kraig]
      #98819 - Sun Sep 10 2017 12:42 PM

From the looks of the radar out Key West, our friends in Naples seem to be in the cross hairs. What about surge conditions for that area and high tide times. Must be getting pretty critical down there.

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ljmax
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Loc: Ocala
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #98822 - Sun Sep 10 2017 12:56 PM

Bands are starting to come through the Ocala area now. Winds are below TS strength but that will change over the next few hours. Stay safe everyone.

--------------------
Never argue with an idiot as they will only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!


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Corkhill1
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Costa Rica
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98823 - Sun Sep 10 2017 01:03 PM

UKM 1200Z moved back to West closer to NHC forecast line, now getting more consensus. Be Safe.

Edited by Corkhill1 (Sun Sep 10 2017 01:47 PM)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #98824 - Sun Sep 10 2017 01:05 PM

Quote:

Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but I would not have put that out there if the actual observable data did not support my opinion.




So true. I think the NHC needs a better way to explain the wind field to people. I've got friends/relatives from out of town that thing we are in a 155 mph monster, another Andrew. The wind here is blowing 40 max. I assume we will see some 60 to 80 gusts at some point, but I am 110 miles away from the eye. Key Largo has 60 mph winds now and they are only 60 miles away. The TS force winds extend really far, but the hurricane force winds do not. And the areas that are getting hurricane force are not experiencing anything near Cat 4 levels. Dig up my old posts, I complain about this during every storm with estimated winds, flight level winds, max winds., etc. Like temperature we need a "feels like" hurricane value. Sorry for the rant but this kind of stuff makes people think storms are "weak" and thus do not prepare next time.

However I must say this is feeling like David, its been going on for HOURS. The wind has been relentless since 10PM last night and I'd say we are only 40% done.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Corkhill1]
      #98827 - Sun Sep 10 2017 01:42 PM

Starting to look like a Naples landfall, 46 miles south and motion appears NNW, might be a glancing blow.

Jeff's periscope feed is up, he is live from Naples, seeing some light damage already.


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Kigeliakitten
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Loc: Florida 28.74N 81.24W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98830 - Sun Sep 10 2017 02:11 PM

What is the name of Jeff's Periscope feed? Never mind, it was right there when I opened Periscope.

Edited by Kigeliakitten (Sun Sep 10 2017 02:14 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98831 - Sun Sep 10 2017 02:21 PM

Irma is being looped around (and eventually to within) the mid/upper-level vort diving down from the northwest. Center fixes show Irma to be bending back to the left a little as she gains latitude, and it is possible that she skirts western Florida with several landfalls.


It is growing apparent that the very gradual transition into a sub-tropical and eventually post-tropical cyclone is now underway, with dry air infiltrating Irma from the west, reducing not only precip (as can be seen on radar - not shown here), but the intensity of her winds in the western semicircle - perhaps by as much as a full category in addition to the half to full category that is already commonly reduced on that side of a TC (See recon data below - courtesy Tropical Tidbits).

The earliest beginnings of extra-tropical transition (going to take days to complete), along with how that mid-upper low is pinwheeling Irma around to the NNW-NW, is made clear in the water vapor image below





Image Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Irma is now a Cat III on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. The Saffir-Simpson is not a measure of a hurricane's overall capacity to do damage. Remember, Katrina was a Cat III when she made her historic landfall near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana, and Ike was 'only' a Cat II when he made landfall over Galveston, Texas, yet these two TCs were some of the most destructive in history.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98836 - Sun Sep 10 2017 03:09 PM

Just had a decent band come through Orlando. A good downpour. Not much wind.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98837 - Sun Sep 10 2017 03:22 PM

Water vapor satellite is really showing how the dry air is disruptive.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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Hammhound
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 3
Loc: 28.90N 81.30W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98839 - Sun Sep 10 2017 03:39 PM

Looks to be tracking a bit east of the forecast again.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Hammhound]
      #98841 - Sun Sep 10 2017 05:00 PM

East of forecast line, tracking along the coast, becoming very disrupted and elongated N/S. There is almost no rain south of the eye for like 50 miles, wonder if the inner eye is falling apart and will be replaced because there is some banding still visible.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Corkhill1
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Costa Rica
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98843 - Sun Sep 10 2017 05:18 PM

NHC says at 5pm: "Although weakening is forecast, Irma is expected to remain
a hurricane at least through Monday morning.
"Weakening sounds good to me."


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Corkhill1]
      #98844 - Sun Sep 10 2017 05:32 PM

The dry air is definitely infiltrating the core now. You can see it wrapping around the South and West sides. Winds down to 110mph. Folks aren't in the clear yet though. Naples had a 142mph wind gust not too long ago, and major damage is being recorded there. Marco Island had 130mph wind gust with damage being reported as well. And keep in mind, the West coast has not even had the surge event start yet.

--------------------
Matt


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