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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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Flaguy2441
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Corkhill1]
      #98845 - Sun Sep 10 2017 05:34 PM

NHC also needs to adjust the track based on current movement ( due NORTH ). Unless it starts a NW movement now, it will be far more inland that NHC is projecting.

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WestFLJess
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 9
Loc: Tampa Bay
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Flaguy2441]
      #98849 - Sun Sep 10 2017 05:51 PM

Quote:

NHC also needs to adjust the track based on current movement ( due NORTH ). Unless it starts a NW movement now, it will be far more inland that NHC is projecting.




Why do they need to adjust their track? Is the 5pm track not correct?

--------------------
Jess
Tampa Bay, FL

Elena '85....Charley, Frances, Jeanne....Emily '17


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Flaguy2441]
      #98851 - Sun Sep 10 2017 05:54 PM

Quote:

NHC also needs to adjust the track based on current movement ( due NORTH ). Unless it starts a NW movement now, it will be far more inland that NHC is projecting.




In the last radar frame, it looks to be turning back NW. Remember to look for trends, not wobbles.

Also, EYW radar is down.

--------------------
Matt


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: WestFLJess]
      #98853 - Sun Sep 10 2017 06:39 PM

Quote:

Why do they need to adjust their track? Is the 5pm track not correct?




Irma is east of the 5PM track already and moving N. So as mentioned unless she starts to turn NW this track will not verify and put her much further inland.

Power just failed in Sebring where I was yesterday, so it seems I made the right call to come home. Still have a long night of gusty winds to deal with however.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 26
Loc: Jupiter, Fl 26.90N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: WestFLJess]
      #98854 - Sun Sep 10 2017 06:52 PM

Quote:

Quote:

NHC also needs to adjust the track based on current movement ( due NORTH ). Unless it starts a NW movement now, it will be far more inland that NHC is projecting.




Why do they need to adjust their track? Is the 5pm track not correct?




The 5pm track is not correct as Irma has been going 350 degrees (just west of North) since 11am. The forecast track is at NNW or about 335 degrees. At this point the track has the core going over Tampa but over the last 8 hours the consistent track will now take Irma further inland and more closely over Lakeland than Tampa.

--------------------
--------------------------------
2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Kraig]
      #98855 - Sun Sep 10 2017 06:57 PM

Seminole county has been under a few different tornado warnings over the last hour. We had a decent gust here about 20 minutes ago. We are under a curfew from 7 to 7.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: Wacissa, FL 30.42N 83.95W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Kraig]
      #98856 - Sun Sep 10 2017 07:01 PM

I want to be optimistic. Given the more inland track, impressive and damaging SW shear, and dry air, now wrapping around to the front right quadrant, couldn't we assume more than "slow weakening"? It looks to be taking on non-tropical characteristics..

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PA101
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98859 - Sun Sep 10 2017 07:14 PM

Quote:

Remember to look for trends, not wobbles.




The 05:00 EDT official coordinates were 24.1N/81.5W. The 17:00 EDT coordinates were 26.2N/81.8W.

If my quick math is correct, that's a cumulative course of roughly 352 degrees, and a 12 hour sample is not a wobble.


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: PA101]
      #98861 - Sun Sep 10 2017 07:25 PM

Quote:


The 05:00 EDT official coordinates were 24.1N/81.5W. The 17:00 EDT coordinates were 26.2N/81.8W.

If my quick math is correct, that's a cumulative course of roughly 352 degrees, and a 12 hour sample is not a wobble.




No, it's not a wobble.

--------------------
Matt


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98864 - Sun Sep 10 2017 07:39 PM

Quote:


No, it's not a wobble.




Agreed. Almost due north, or due north.


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: StormHound]
      #98866 - Sun Sep 10 2017 08:04 PM

8pm NHC update has movement N @ 14, but they are still confident that she's going to hug the West coast with an increase in forward speed. If it does continue moving due North, it would bring the center well East of forecast running it up Auburndale/Winterhaven/Lake Wales area.

Very well could be that they are expecting her to ride the mid/upper level vort in the Gulf.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 81.7 West.
Irma is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a
north-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected by tonight, with that motion continuing through Monday.

--------------------
Matt


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Littlebit
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 46
Loc: Plant City, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98869 - Sun Sep 10 2017 08:08 PM

Can someone please explain what's increasing her forward speed? Thank you.

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drummingcraig
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Littlebit]
      #98872 - Sun Sep 10 2017 10:30 PM

Lots of local news meterologists across the state saying its coming almost due North up through the center, over Orlando and passing just West of Jacksonville. Will be interesting to see what the 11pm update brings from the NHC Track.

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Susan T
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: drummingcraig]
      #98874 - Sun Sep 10 2017 10:46 PM

That makes sense to me. Just follow the money--I mean, the orange bands on the radar. We are buckling our seat-belts here on Amelia Island; it's gonna be a bumpy night. We have 50+mph gusts roaring right now, 35+ sustained winds, hard rain lashing and shaking the house, and worse is on the way. We still have power, but likely not for long--lights are flickering as I type.

I've been lurking here for a couple of days, and there sure are a lot of smart people on this board. Thanks to all for your input. Please keep it coming.

Sutayl


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drummingcraig
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Susan T]
      #98876 - Sun Sep 10 2017 11:00 PM

Quote:

That makes sense to me. Just follow the money--I mean, the orange bands on the radar. We are buckling our seat-belts here on Amelia Island; it's gonna be a bumpy night. We have 50+mph gusts roaring right now, 35+ sustained winds, hard rain lashing and shaking the house, and worse is on the way. We still have power, but likely not for long--lights are flickering as I type.

I've been lurking here for a couple of days, and there sure are a lot of smart people on this board. Thanks to all for your input. Please keep it coming.

Sutayl




I am right there with you (in Jacksonville). The 11pm NHC track is sticking with the computer models and still appears to have it passing between Tampa and Orlando and continuing its bend to the NW. There's been some mention of movement to the NE by our local station and another one, but I think that is likely just the wobble of the deteriorating eye. We'll see what happens and if that NW move happens.


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: drummingcraig]
      #98878 - Sun Sep 10 2017 11:30 PM

Quote:

Quote:

That makes sense to me. Just follow the money--I mean, the orange bands on the radar. We are buckling our seat-belts here on Amelia Island; it's gonna be a bumpy night. We have 50+mph gusts roaring right now, 35+ sustained winds, hard rain lashing and shaking the house, and worse is on the way. We still have power, but likely not for long--lights are flickering as I type.

I've been lurking here for a couple of days, and there sure are a lot of smart people on this board. Thanks to all for your input. Please keep it coming.

Sutayl




I am right there with you (in Jacksonville). The 11pm NHC track is sticking with the computer models and still appears to have it passing between Tampa and Orlando and continuing its bend to the NW. There's been some mention of movement to the NE by our local station and another one, but I think that is likely just the wobble of the deteriorating eye. We'll see what happens and if that NW move happens.




This is almost embarassing for the NHC. True, it doesn't make a huge amount of difference. But the NHC always used to use some common sense and experience in their tracks. The track has been wrong all day and they haven't adjusted. It's almost like they aren't allowed to vary from the computer models anymore.


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WestFLJess
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 9
Loc: Tampa Bay
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98879 - Sun Sep 10 2017 11:31 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Why do they need to adjust their track? Is the 5pm track not correct?




Irma is east of the 5PM track already and moving N. So as mentioned unless she starts to turn NW this track will not verify and put her much further inland.

Power just failed in Sebring where I was yesterday, so it seems I made the right call to come home. Still have a long night of gusty winds to deal with however.




Thank you for the explanation. When a new 1x poster posts something like that with no explanation (especially during a Hurricane) it helps to understand the reasoning behind their statement.

Hoping for the sleep tonight. Irma is hitting us hard right now.

--------------------
Jess
Tampa Bay, FL

Elena '85....Charley, Frances, Jeanne....Emily '17


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: WestFLJess]
      #98880 - Mon Sep 11 2017 12:11 AM

Irma was weaker than expected in the Tampa Bay area ... expected 65-80mph winds and gusts near 100 in Tampa but currently getting 50-60mph and gusts over 70... pretty much a moderate tropical storm... Polk county got about what is expected 60-70mph with gusts around 80-90 as you go around Bartow-Lakeland. Remember the 100mph winds are above the surface and trees. I hear 1 lady on TV saying this is the worst she's ever seen.. well she must be from up north cause Jeanne and Francis was alittle worse. If Irma didn't go through Naples N and went further west thru even Ft Myers.. it would of held together alittle longer and since it was more west, Tampa-St Pete would of gotten what was expected. Also southern side of the storm is much less in the way of rain than expected. Overall, most of the west coast of Florida got a Tropical Storm unless you're around Ft Myers-Naples area. Expect Irma to stay a hurricane till 8am-11am by the NHC cause again they say the winds above the surface.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98888 - Mon Sep 11 2017 01:58 PM

Irma's Cone of Uncertainty - Why it is so important to use the Cone and not the line.

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98890 - Mon Sep 11 2017 03:53 PM

Why did southwest Seminole county take such a beating. We are without power and have trees uprooted pretty bad. More so than a local tornado.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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