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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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Jumaduke
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: North Florida 29.83N 82.66W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98124 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:51 AM

Hebert's Box is named for forecaster Paul Hebert, who determined that the majority of strong hurricanes that hit South Florida in the last 100 years had also passed through one of two specific regions in the Caribbean Sea. One Hebert Box is positioned near the Cayman Islands, while the other incorporates the Virgin Islands. Basically, if Irma passes over the Virgin Islands, Miami better watch out. Wikipedia isn't always the best source, but here's that link. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

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Go Gators!


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98125 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:56 AM

Quote:

Quote:

0z GFS Run:
Updated as it comes in:
Starts off similar to the last run,Irma's obviously over warmer water now and we may wake up to a stronger hurricane.
Are you saying this is a genuine scenario?

By 36 hours, it's slightly south of the prior GFS Run, maybe 15 or 20 nm, but generally stays the same course until at least 42 hours out.

By Wednesday morning it's getting dangerously close to Barbuda, eyewall goes over Barbuda, then St. Maarten and Anguilla. By the evening it's over the British Virgin Islands (US gets some, but not as much as the northern British VI)

It stays north of Puerto Rico (to avoid the inner core), but still gets tropical storm force and maybe hurricane force along the northern side of PR.

Closer to HIspaniola this run, hits cat 5 late Thursday night as it nears the Turks and Caicos, and over them Friday morning.

Slips west of the Turks and Caicos Friday night, between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Saturday morning just offshore Cuba, then rides the northern coastline of Cuba. Sunday morning drifts north from Cuba into the Florida straits.

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

Back offshore by St. Augustine by the end of the night, still a major another landfall in central Georgia.

Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.

Posting it here for the record, 10th straight US landfall prediction for Irma.















If this happens,and we don't know that it will,it would be the biggest natual disater in U.S. history given that angle and the layout of Florida.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Beaker
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Loc: Panama City Beach
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98126 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:57 AM

Any idea on when the data from the recon flights will be in the models? (If not already).

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98127 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:06 AM

Recon data was in the model runs starting with this mornings 0z runs, they'll be able to send more planes when it gets closer, right now its still east of the Caribbean.

For Florida it just means going over the details of the hurricane plan, if the worst case of GFS pans out, it would mean incredible amounts of evacuations north through central Florida, and roads would be jammed up into Georiga. Other than going over a few options personally, I would wait until the system is a bit closer to the Bahamas and north of Hispaniola to start making harder calls.


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98128 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:13 AM

There's a plane in there now, but I don't know when that data will be incorporated into the models. Good question.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98129 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:37 AM

I primarily watch weather hourly because of all the outdoor functions that I do where I work at the Crowne Plaza Oceanfront. From what I see this morning Florida seems to be in the crosshairs or close to it. We here at the hotel are scheduling a meeting to review our preparation plans in case we need to put them into affect. We had a good plan for Matthew and it worked great. I hope we don`t have to implement it again this year. I`ll be living on CFHC for the next 6-8 days. All in all it looks like some part of the south east is going to get some rude weather.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98132 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:05 AM

A couple of quick points for all of us to keep in mind.

Always best not to focus too much on the exact center line forecast track -

*Average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. A simple rounding error could have Irma tracking over the islands and into the GOM, and all but miss Florida. Or, possibly, recurving out to sea and not touching any land directly at all.

*Damaging winds, extreme rainfall and tornadoes extend well out from any hurricane's center.

The right time to prepare for a hurricane if you live where they historically can strike is always, and now.


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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98134 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:28 AM

Good advice! Just be prepared...I sent my husband and sons out to get more water, gas and propane tanks. If you have a generator, make sure you have enough fuel to use it. Also...with it this far out, you may want to think about getting flood insurance. I did that yesterday. Hurricane insurance does NOT cover flooding from a hurricane. Just stay safe no matter where it goes.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98135 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:34 AM

Quote:

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

If this happens,and we don't know that it will,it would be the biggest natual disater in U.S. history given that angle and the layout of Florida.




That model run is too horrible to even think about

I never paid attention to ONE model, but the south and west trend has continued over the last few updates with all models coming into a general agreement. The track has been steady W followed by a turn to the N, the a NE curve. The difference now is Irma runs longer W thus putting her in Cuba instead of the Bahamas. This means the N turn brings the track VERY close to the S FL regardless. So I am pretty much on full alert now.

Looking for forward to more aircraft data to help establish the strength and location of the blocking Bremuda high to the N. Next we have trough strength and timing as that is looking iffy - it might become a cut off low and not the pushing force once predicted. Her motion is still WSW so in the next update we should see W, followed by WNW. Anymore S and the west coast of FL starts to become a worry as we looking at a potential Charley situation. Seems hard to believe a storm that looked like a threat to Eastern Bahamas just 2 days ago could become a GOM event is pretty remarkable.

Only good news for now continues to be the small size of hurricane force winds unfortunately that too is predicted to change. Need to hope this front pushing the US builds a nice wall and kicks Irma back where she came from (the sea). If not... well it will be panel time again. Wondering if we will have a Matthew-like event with a coastal rider.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98136 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:37 AM

Current pattern suggests a window for Irma to nudge WNW today (although less likely). Otherwise, continued WSW to W track likely to continue.. putting more islands at risk of more substantial impacts. Right Front Quadrant in play.



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98137 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:41 AM

12Z GFS run is going, at 42 hours out it's nearing Barbuda, about the same as the last run. By Wednesday morning southern eyewall over Anguilla and St. Martin, slightly north of the prior run (15-20nm).

Early Thursday morning the center of Irma would be 75nm north of the north coast of Puerto Rico, which is about 25nm further north than the earlier run.

Cat 4/5 over Turks and Caicos Friday morning, and by Saturday morning its west of there, but further away from the Cuban coastline than earlier runs. (50 vs 10 nm) this run keeps it north of Cuba.

Sunday morning Cat 5 very near South Florida, coming in just north of Key Largo Sunday afternoon. Keeps moving north with the Core and east side over Metro Miami, may exit back over the Atlantic near Ft. Pierce Monday morning, then clips Cape Canaveral before noon, Still Cat 4.

Another cat 3/4 landfall near Savannah, GA Late Monday night weakens quickly, but still a hurricane as it nears Charlotte, NC.

Again we go over these models to see trends not exact landfall information, this morning was extra far west, now its shifting a bit further east, still not good for the Southeast US and Florida.






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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98138 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:41 AM

When do the 12Z runs drop? Waiting to see if they shift more to the West. The possibility of a very dangerous hurricane in the GOM is not out of the realm of possibilities.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 15/10/6


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #98140 - Mon Sep 04 2017 12:36 PM

Two days from now we could be talking about a Cat 5 Irma hitting Houston, TX...

Yea, I know, unlikely, but just the shift from 24 hours ago reminds us how much things change in a very short period of time.


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 94
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98141 - Mon Sep 04 2017 01:13 PM

Agreed, but you also have to remember we are just getting real data now. Prior to the first aircraft pass, its all sat data. Nothing replaces actual dropsonde and flight recorded data. We all know the models are getting better every year. But still if someone were to ask " where this thing is going?" We all have to still shrug and say anywhere from here to there. But we certainly have a better idea than we did 10 years ago.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98143 - Mon Sep 04 2017 01:31 PM

I believe with the better data input the track won't very too much from what it is now, maybe a bit west, maybe a bit east, but generally what we see is what we get, including the possibility for further up the east coast and out to sea, or slightly west for an north central or eastern Gulf hit. Middle is Florida, and this has shifted from NC/SC to here to be the most likley. (Although there is still a great deal of uncertainty) I think the models may trend east a bit, then back west over the next few days, it's going to be close enough to cause watches/warnings along Florida I do believe, maybe as early as Friday afternoon/Evening for eventual landfall somewhere Sunday or Monday.

HMON (replacement for the older GFDL) is a hurricane specific model that tends to do pretty well with developed systems like Irma, it only goes out a few days as well. The models in general are pretty tightly in agreement in the 4 day range. HWRF is similar, both show Irma become very large and intense systems, the ocean temps north of Cuba are some of the highest in the Atlantic so the energy is there.

HMON run keeps it north of Cuba and gets below 900mb, HWRF passes it right through Cuba (ends with it barely back in the Caribbean then turning it right back north into Cuba 955mb vs 872mb on the HMON, which doesn't take it over land)

Irma is still east of the Leewards, so we have a few days to watch it.



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98146 - Mon Sep 04 2017 02:17 PM

12Z Euro has Irma moving similar pattern over Barbuda early Wednesday morning, and Anguilla and St. Martin get the core later that morning, then cuts through the British Virgin islands late in the afternoon core stays north of Puerto Rico.

Northern edge of the Core along the Turks/Caicos Thursday night. Well clear of Hispaniola to the north. Does pass directly over the Inagua Islands early Friday morning as a cat 3/4.

Seems to be a bit further northwest on this run.

By Saturday morning it's between Andros Island in the Bahamas and Cuba (closer to Cuba). Cat 4 near the same position as the 12ZGFS heading nw.

Landfall Miami or razors edge close (Western eyewall over MIA/FTL) Midday Sunday 926mb (High end cat 4)

Back over water Monday heading north.

Cat 3/4 landfall Savannah, GA Tuesday Morning, Sep 12th



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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98147 - Mon Sep 04 2017 02:44 PM

You can evacuate the barrier islands, but for the people of Florida, there's no place to run. Not like you can head to the other side of the state. And anyone that thinks you can evacuate Florida northward on the interstates hasn't driven on them lately. it's bumper to bumper already. Hard to believe it could be that strong that long over land.

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98149 - Mon Sep 04 2017 03:06 PM

Quote:

You can evacuate the barrier islands, but for the people of Florida, there's no place to run. Not like you can head to the other side of the state. And anyone that thinks you can evacuate Florida northward on the interstates hasn't driven on them lately. it's bumper to bumper already. Hard to believe it could be that strong that long over land.


Charlie wasn't supposed to retain speed and energy too long after landfall, yet my parents experienced almost 130mph winds off of Lake Pierce that nearly destroyed their house just outside of Lake Wales....they CAN retain speed over Florida.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98151 - Mon Sep 04 2017 03:48 PM

Euro ensembles, median is right through the Keys and up the spine, this is a west shift from earlier runs of the ensembles



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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #98152 - Mon Sep 04 2017 03:49 PM

Let's all hope that the 5pm advisory shoves it east and makes it a "fish spinner"; but I'm guessing that's not going to happen. I have friends that live in Tampa saying "This will NEVER hit us." I'm also telling my relatives that live in the NE to get ready. They say the same thing. I'm prepared, I guess that's all you can do.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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