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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.67N 81.73W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: chance]
      #98238 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:29 PM

Quote:

Does anyone think like me the models keep trending along? I have never seen them stay on the exact path for 5 days in a row.

What time do the 12Z GFS and Euro start coming in thanks.




The 12Z GFS is actually still coming in right now.

Tropical Tidbits


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MissBecky]
      #98239 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:42 PM

Quote:

The 12Z GFS is actually still coming in right now.




Right up the east coast of FL - nightmare scenario given the population density of this area.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98240 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:00 PM

Quote:

Quote:

The 12Z GFS is actually still coming in right now.




Right up the east coast of FL - nightmare scenario given the population density of this area.


Would you mind posting a link to this latest run? I'm having a hard time finding it. Thank you!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98241 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:07 PM

all the 5's I've seen have had a solid green ring on the funktop and Erma only had a little overnight and didn't even have much of the light red today.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98242 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:08 PM

Quote:

Would you mind posting a link to this latest run? I'm having a hard time finding it. Thank you!




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...os=0&ypos=0

https://www.ventusky.com is really good too for the visuals but might be one run behind.

Hit the play button on each site to watch the forecast over the given time period.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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WestFLJess
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 9
Loc: Tampa Bay
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98243 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:12 PM

wow.

"Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/051446.shtml

--------------------
Jess
Tampa Bay, FL

Elena '85....Charley, Frances, Jeanne....Emily '17


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98245 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:33 PM

Paralleling the east coast of FL and staying off shore actually could be ideal to keep the front right quadrant away. That could be the difference in only feeling Cat 1-3 effects versus 4/5 and would reduce storm surge

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98247 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:40 PM

Quote:

Paralleling the coast of FL and staying off shore actually could be ideal to keep the front right quadrant away. That could be the difference in only feeling Cat 1-3 effects versus 4/5 and would reduce storm surge




Yes off shore would be the key here, similar to Matthew. However a slightly drift to the W puts all the major cities of S FL in the eye wall.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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typhoon_tipModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98250 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:55 PM


Particularly true given the circumstance(s) with Irma, ...folks should not focus on whether the 'eye' its self stays on or off-shore.

This GFS solution is precariously close enough for obvious reasons, but more specifically ... an expanding wind field in association with a N turning Hurricane ...from an initial pressure that has plumbed (possibly) toward or exceeding 900 mb, would be very problematic for the entire eastern half of the Florida Peninsula.

Things can and obviously will change, but as is, Irma may not be moving appreciably fast as it is making its closest pass with the southern part of the state; there may be lesser benefit of forward motion subtracting from the western semi-circle for a polar-ward turning TCs.

It is a foregone conclusion that dealing with top tier juggernaut cyclones of this nature that every aspect and action to protect lives first, and property second, should begin in earnest.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98251 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:58 PM

Midday models (Main two):

12Z GFS:
Turks Caicos Friday morning Cat 4/5
Eyewall scrapes Miami up to West Palm Beach Sunday, Cat 5
Cat 4/5 landfall near Savannah, GA Monday afternoon
Slightly east of prior run, and keeps barely offshore the east coast of Florida, but eyewall within major met areas.

12Z Euro (Running now):
Midday tomorrow, Cat 5 landfall over St. Martin.
Clears PR to the north, still some affects though. Stays north of DR on Thursday.
Friday Midday over Inagua Island, Cat 4/5 (Of note Bay of Campeche system develops)
Saturday Midday, over Central Cuba
Sunday Midday, exiting into Florida Straits near Havana
Monday, Landfall between Naples and Ft. Myers cat 4/5 then straight north up the state, into Georgia by Tuesday.

CMC: Hits PR, Plows through Cuba, then turns north into the Gulf, landfall near Panama City Cat 2. (West outlier) Already too far south.


HMON:
Midday Sunday landfall at West Palm Beach Cat 5 (briefly, then back offshore)
HWRF:
Landfall northern Cuba coast Saturday Morning, Cat 5
Back over Water north of Cuba Sunday Morning, Cat 3 (West of Key west)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98253 - Tue Sep 05 2017 02:24 PM

Love the chart thanks. Time to edit LOL. 185/926. Which is still exactly my point very efficient considering the pressure and no green on the funktop would seem there is still room to go

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98254 - Tue Sep 05 2017 02:38 PM

The Euro and GFS are differing today after some trend toward agreement yesterday. The difference seems to be that the GFS senses a weakness in the blocking high pressure system to the NE of Florida on Sunday while the Euro seems to sense more of that ridge's influence to the north and additional higher pressure to the NW keeping IRMA south and further west on the north coast of Cuba. at 120 hours. IMO, so far this year GFS seems to have been the better of the two models when it comes to predicting movements. The HMON shifted eastward substantially.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Tue Sep 05 2017 02:40 PM)


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eulogia
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL 26.57N 81.96W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: doug]
      #98255 - Tue Sep 05 2017 03:21 PM

I want to thank you all for the expert interpretations you've given us over the years.

--------------------
Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al


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chance
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: doug]
      #98257 - Tue Sep 05 2017 03:28 PM

I wonder if this will effect the 5pm update track? they like the GFS and Euro and like to split the difference which to me is dumb to do but i can see the NHC having the 5pm going right up the middle of the state picking right between the 1st 2 models

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: chance]
      #98258 - Tue Sep 05 2017 03:46 PM

Quote:

I wonder if this will effect the 5pm update track? they like the GFS and Euro and like to split the difference which to me is dumb to do but i can see the NHC having the 5pm going right up the middle of the state picking right between the 1st 2 models




Splitting the difference right now might be the thing to do. First of all, the path models look fairly evenly split between west edge of Florida and east edge, with everything in between. It's really too far out to have a great deal of confidence in any of those variations, so splitting the difference keeps everyone in Florida on alert. Favoring one or the other too much may give some people a false sense of security. The NHC has a lot of things to balance this far out, and one of them is the reaction of the people potentially in a target area. You don't want panic, but you also don't want anyone thinking they are so safe they ignore the situation. I was reading that many people did not evacuate in front of Harvey because they thought it was "only" a Category 2 storm and when it strengenthed it was too late for them to leave.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #98260 - Tue Sep 05 2017 03:54 PM

She has now started moving WNW,as opposed to due W.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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chance
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98262 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:06 PM

that is good news i think

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: chance]
      #98263 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:24 PM

Quote:

that is good news i think




No,it just keeps it on the NHC's projected path.

But good news for SOME of the islands.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Sep 05 2017 04:25 PM)


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98264 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:28 PM

I'm not sure of the initialization of each specific model, but they seem to now be coming together on a trip up the east side of Florida.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98265 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:32 PM

Quote:

Quote:

that is good news i think




No,it just keeps it on the NHC's projected path.

But good news for SOME of the islands.




1200 HWRF and UKM have it going through the mountains of Cuba longwise, then turning north. Bad news for Cuba but it should take some of the steam out of it.


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