F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 210 (Idalia) , Major: 210 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 210 (Idalia) Major: 210 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2017 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: cieldumort]
      #98399 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:34 PM

From Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State

Hurricane Irma Meteorological Records/Notable Facts Recap (through September 6 at 4pm EDT)
Note: Lifetime refers to storm lifetime to date Intensity Measures

-185 mph lifetime max winds –tied with Florida Keys (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second strongest max winds of all time in Atlantic hurricane. Allen had max winds of 190 mph in 1980

-185 mph max winds for 24 hours – the longest an Atlantic hurricane has maintained that intensity on record. The only other tropical cyclone around the globe to maintain that intensity for 24 hours in satellite era (since 1966) was Haiyan (2013) in the N W Pacific. Read more (PDF)...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: cieldumort]
      #98427 - Wed Sep 06 2017 11:39 PM



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: cieldumort]
      #98440 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:38 AM

Irma weakened a bit overnight, with s slightly more ragged eye, but is still a category 5 hurricane, it may fluctuate in intensity over the next few days, Hispaniloa may impact some of the inflow, but water temperatures are more than warm enough for it to recover. Watches for South Florida and the Keys will probably go up at 11AM. See the NHC Discussion for more, also.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jumaduke
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: North Florida
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98441 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:58 AM

The NHS track has been virtually unchanged since the 8 p.m. advisory Wednesday night. I do notice, however, that they've predicted that her intensity will reduce (from a Cat3 to a Cat1 upon Georgia landfall). Doesn't this seem contraindicated by the fact that her eye is going to have good access to open water during most of her scrape up the Florida coastline? I also notice that some of the other models (UKM and NVGM, specifically) have swung her track further West, with her eye passing over Key West and making landfall at Naples. Last night the majority of the models were tracking almost identically to NHS. Is there a possibility that she'll travel further West? Predictors seemed so much more sure of her path last night.

--------------------
Go Gators!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MarkFSU
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Loc: Plant City, FL
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98442 - Thu Sep 07 2017 06:02 AM

Mike, any thoughts on why the models split again last night? With the hurricane moving quickly at 17 mph, does that increase the chances of a Florida landfall?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MarkFSU]
      #98446 - Thu Sep 07 2017 07:34 AM

Faster movemnt means less time for the break in the ridge to occur, so it's shifting west, I think that's why the UK and Euro are further west than the GFS ones. Ultimately it's going to be razor close, or it shifts way further west than anticipated, the NHC's discussion for Irma this morning describes the model situation pretty well, and I think the official track is pretty good.

Recon is finding lower pressures again (919) which is a bit surprising, Hispaniola may have less of an affect than I thought it would.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MarkFSU
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Loc: Plant City, FL
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98447 - Thu Sep 07 2017 07:51 AM

I am surprised as well, I thought the mountains of Hispaniola would disrupt the inflow from the south, but so far it has not.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MarkFSU]
      #98448 - Thu Sep 07 2017 07:53 AM

If she picks up speed, we may see a shift west in the models and the NHC track at the 1100 update.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MarkFSU]
      #98449 - Thu Sep 07 2017 07:57 AM

Quote:


I am surprised as well, I thought the mountains of Hispaniola would disrupt the inflow from the south, but so far it has not.




Hispaniola (and mountainous islands in general) tend to not significantly disrupt tropical cyclones that do not pass mostly, let alone directly, over them. This is especially true of larger TCs and Irma is massive.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: Jumaduke]
      #98451 - Thu Sep 07 2017 08:13 AM

Quote:

The NHS track has been virtually unchanged since the 8 p.m. advisory Wednesday night. I do notice, however, that they've predicted that her intensity will reduce (from a Cat3 to a Cat1 upon Georgia landfall)




If you are referring to NHC (?) .. be sure to always check the time stamps and positions when comparing Advisories. The NHC comparison you are curious about (between last night's 8pm and this morning's 5am) is hours apart, with the earlier Advisory still over water, and 5AM this morning further north - over land - because more time has passed.

5PM SEP 6 (Which would have carried over to 8pm)
120H 11/1800Z 31.0N 81.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

5AM SEP 7
120H 12/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

One location is still over water at 31.0N and the other over land at 33.0N.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MarkFSU]
      #98453 - Thu Sep 07 2017 09:19 AM

It has also taken a jog to the NW. She has a good distance between herself and the DR and looks "tighter" than 6 hours ago. As a side note, Jose looks on deck according to the Euro - but we'll take one disaster at a time.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: Steve H1]
      #98455 - Thu Sep 07 2017 09:50 AM

Careful on the wobbles, Recon is currently showing a true eyewall replacement cycle happening now, with a corresponding windfield expansion. I know every jog is important, but it needs to trend for several frames to make a real difference.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98457 - Thu Sep 07 2017 10:16 AM

Wanted to mention Jose again, Jose will likely need Hurricane watches up for the NE Caribbean (Again!) for Jose later today. That would mean hurricane watches in three areas for three different hurricanes at once.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 267
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98461 - Thu Sep 07 2017 10:45 AM

Is it my imagine, or just something with my PC that I know I saw a 10:00 am update on the NOAA site and now it is gone. On my iPhone too.

Maybe I am getting Irma Crazy?

Edit: I guess the update will be at 11:00. I am losing my mind...

--------------------
Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams

Edited by Prospero (Thu Sep 07 2017 10:49 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98462 - Thu Sep 07 2017 10:52 AM

3-6hr turn to almost NW was expected in most models from 8am-2pm including the GFS before a bend back WNW or even just north of due west on Friday-Saturday morning

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 58716

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center