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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98298 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:04 PM

The GFS 12Z and 18Z results did show a more easrward track. It looked like the 18Z HMON and HWRF also shifted ever so slightly eastward. We'll see if that trend continues in subsequent runs or if they shift back toward the west again. It will be interesting to see what they begin to indicate on Thursday and Friday. As has been stated, prepare now for the worst and hope for the best.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 53
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98304 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:38 PM

Stay calm and re-visit each step in your family hurricane plan.

In nearly 59 years of living in Florida, 40 of which were in multiple locations along the east coast of Florida, I've experienced the fringe on one Cat 4 (75 miles out on the "good" side of Floyd), within 40 miles of four Cat 3's (Donna as a toddler, Frances, Charley, Matthew) and the eye of Cat 2 David. I've been in 6-8 tropical storms (several on a sailboat). Each time I had a safe room or "hurricane hole" to ride out the worst conditions forecast. If Irma comes up the Florida peninsula and weakens to a Cat 3, we're staying in the original concrete block section of our house (built in 1950). If Irma holds as a Cat 5 (or a strong Cat 4) and the forecast has her riding up the east coast of Florida (a possibility), the wife and I will pack up the labs and cat and drive before conditions become perilous) west 75 miles inland to leave and shelter at the farm I grew up on.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98305 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:42 PM

11PM Forecast track follows the Euro/HWRF Track fairly closely (over keys to extreme SW Florida), NHC Graphics haven't updated yet, but Central Florida is now in the cone as well.


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chance
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98306 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:47 PM

They just said heck with all the other models we will go with 1 in the euro model. Why??? Why only go with that one. I understand the GFS is a outliner this run but last was east as well. The others are east of this as well. Why?? i do not see the reason they can give by just saying they will go with the euro only that is it.


Waiting on the 00 euro and if that shows east i do not see how they can go with it.

Edited by chance (Tue Sep 05 2017 10:49 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98308 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:53 PM

GFS initialized poorly and too far north for one, it is an outlier with a lot of submodels based on it. They made the right call on that one, especially with the mean GFS ensembles being up the spine, the operational WAS an outlier. I hope the trend east happens also, but that wasn't it. (Edit: Trend east and out to Sea, I don't want the Carolinas seeing Irma either)


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98310 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:55 PM

Mike, wasn't the Euro 5-7 more accurate than GFS for Harvey?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98312 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:57 PM

Quote:

I can honestly say that I don't know. Do we go to GA?




When to leave? By Thursday PM you'll be in the 3 day cone which (going by current history) is pretty darn accurate. That would be my go / no-go time frame. TS force winds would enter your area around Sat PM. What is downside to leaving early rather then later? Not much, you burn some gas, help the local economy with some nights in a hotel and get familiar with the menu at Cracker Barrel. Drive a few hundred miles a day, find a hotel, stop, fire up the WiFI and collect more information then plan your next move. If things look better stay put, if things get worse - keep driving. My worry would be gas. Down south here the lines are already getting pretty crazy.

Quote:

11PM Forecast track follows the Euro/HWRF Track fairly closely (over keys to extreme SW Florida)




So the NHC is going with more western solution (for now)... interesting. This was my call this AM and I haven't seen enough information to change it.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98315 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:00 AM

0z GFS, corrected south this run,but still a tad too north, either way goes over Turks and Caicos Cat 4/5 on Friday, goes just south of Andros Island in the Bahamas Saturday night, (Southern tip catches eyewall), starts to turn north just west of the Island. eastern eyewall over Andros. Over Bimini as a cat 5 Sunday Morning. West eyewall is over miami. Just under 30 miles east of WPB on midday Sunday.

Cat 5 landfall, Charleston, SC Midday Monday.

Shift back west, but still offshore Florida. init was a bit too far north, it'll be a close call either way, I'd bet on another west shift later. It shifted 65 miles closer to Florida this run.

For an even bigger shift, CMC is shifting from a Panhandle landfall to an close call with the east coast and out to sea. (overkill to the east from overkill to the west)

0z ukmet has landfall at west palm beach and rides the east coast of Florida inland up to Jacksonville. Shift west, and less interaction with Cuba.


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bahamaweather
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Loc: Abaco, Bahamas 26.39N 77.09W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98316 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:05 AM

Another 'eastern' run for the GFS.... I'll wait until morning to see the Euro and the possibility of a trend. GFS keeps things dicey in the Bahamas for sure...

--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98318 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:10 AM

Quote:

0z GFS, corrected south this run,but still a tad too north, either way goes over Turks and Caicos Cat 4/5 on Friday, goes just south of Andros Island in the Bahamas Saturday night, (Southern tip catches eyewall), starts to turn north just west of the Island. eastern eyewall over Andros. Over Bimini as a cat 5 Sunday Morning. West eyewall is over miami. 30 miles east of WPB on midday Sunday.

Shift back west, but still offshore Florida. init was a bit too far north, it'll be a close call either way, I'd bet on another west shift later. It shifted 65 miles closer to Florida this run.





Hasn't GFS been east for most of the life of Irma. Euro has had this westerly track pegged for several days...that's gotta be why NHC is sticking close to that ensemble....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98319 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:19 AM

Curious about how/where you can see the init. Would the 0Z GFS run init be correlated to 7pm EDT position of the storm, or am I off on how that works? If so, I'm comparing the rough center of the GFS position at +0 with the radar images from Barbados at 7:01pm looks to be in roughly the same spot, plus or minus a tiny bit.

If the GFS persists in making it an east coast event, and the Euro continues with the west coast event, it's going to be a nightmare for NHC in deciding how to advise on the potential track.

--------------------
Londovir


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #98320 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:25 AM

Only by comparing short term models vs actual data. I suspect Euro may shift slightly east, and GFS will shift slightly more west again.

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Steve C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 15
Loc: Houston TX 77059 29.60N 95.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #98321 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:57 AM

Quote:

and shelter at the farm I grew up on.




Yup. Similar in Houston. Short of a direct hit Cat 4-5, we are in no flood trouble and stick it out.. But with a close and big storm forecast, we bail early. We grab the computers, backup drives, and keepsakes. We shoot a quick video of the house contents. And we head to our daughter's in Austin. On the way, we call the insurance agent and remind him where the house is... heh. We stayed for Harvey; no wind and no surge. We left for Ike and Rita (though Rita eventually missed us, and we basically u-turned in austin after a quick nap.)

--------------------
Claudette (’79) Danielle (’80) Jeanne (’80) Alicia (’83) Bonnie (’86) Allison (’89)
Chantal (’89) Jerry (’89) Dean (’95) Allison (’01) Rita (’05) Ike (’08) Harvey (’17)


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ObsFromNWFL
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 7
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98322 - Wed Sep 06 2017 02:03 AM

HMON & HWRF have shifted east. Disney World saved. Mar-a-lago doomed.

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ObsFromNWFL
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 7
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #98323 - Wed Sep 06 2017 02:30 AM

00Z ECMWF has shifted significantly east.

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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: Wacissa, FL 30.42N 83.95W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #98325 - Wed Sep 06 2017 05:24 AM

5:00 AM discussion: "The bulk of the guidance now calls for Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the
Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The officialforecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the
previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance."

Not surprising given such a dramatic shift, however the guidance is very compelling. Would love to see this trend continue and let Irma ride up the Gulf Stream!


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Jumaduke
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: North Florida 29.83N 82.66W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Marknole]
      #98326 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:15 AM

We are in the Gainesville area and are watching the model plots quite closely. Husband and I are in a debate as to which storm scenario is worse for the state. He argues that the NOAA model, making a direct hit on Lake Okechobee as she barrels up the center of the peninsula, would be worse because she'll directly affect more people and property. However, I contend that landfall would significantly weaken the eye faster; rather, the path projected by virtually every other model (showing it scraping up the coast and keeping the eye over open water) would be more damaging because nothing would dampen her power. I guess it all depends on when Irma decides to take the snowbird route and head North. Then again, I keep musing on the path of Floyd in 1999, which again scraped the coast of Florida but didn't have an entirely devastating impact because the eye was so far East of the coast. Irma looks to be on a trajectory which puts her eye closer to the beaches. In any case, I'm guessing that we won't be gassing up the truck and traveling TO St. Augustine to witness the storm (as we crazily did in '99).

--------------------
Go Gators!

Edited by Jumaduke (Wed Sep 06 2017 06:16 AM)


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ObsFromNWFL
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 7
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #98328 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:19 AM

The 06Z GFS run just posted. Unchanged from previous run.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #98329 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:50 AM

0z Euro shifted east, this time. The storm is aover the Turks and Caicos late tomorrow night in the cat 3/4 range, crosses the very southern tip of Andros island in the Bahamas Sautrday midday. Then western eyewall gets very close to West Palm Beach late Sunday night, <20 miles. Then landfall between Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC. Early Ttuesday morning,

6z GFS is very similar, but with landfall slightly south of the Euro and closest point to West Palm is 30-40 miles. The run is mostly identical to the 0z run until it gets east of Jacksonville, where it turns back west faster.

0z HWRF has also moved east of Florida 6Z HWRF Still running, a bit west of the 0z run,

0z HMon has landfall near Key Largo early Sunday as a cat 5, then up the state, and out by Daytona Beach Early Monday. 6Z HMON Takes it to north of Savannah, closest approach to WPB is about 60 miles.

this is a solid trend east with both the major models slightly east of Florirda, GFS Ensembles are still nearly a 50/50 split on a Florida landfall (mean winds up slightly east this time though) and the Euro ensembles still take it up the spine of Florida.

Hopefully this trend continues today with mulit-model agreement, but it is still too early to call this a sure bet. It's not good news for the Carolinas if this occurs, though. A few miles in either direction will make a lot of difference, look for bias corrects (GFS has been too far north consistently in the short range) Bottom line, wait to see if this holds or not, and take the word of the National Hurricane Center over any other source.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98333 - Wed Sep 06 2017 07:52 AM

Quote:

this is a solid trend east with both the major models slightly east of Florirda. Hopefully this trend continues today with mulit-model agreement, but it is still too early to call this a sure bet.




This is best news we've had in awhile. Hopefully the trend continues because the current track is too horrendous to even consider, it's the stuff nightmares are made of!

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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