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News Talkback >> 2017 News Talkbacks

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cieldumortModerator
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Center of Maria Moving Away from the Bahamas
      #98946 - Sun Sep 17 2017 05:18 PM

9AM EDT 23 September 2017 Update

Maria is moving away from the Bahamas, but has expanded a bit in size, it is forecast to move generally north to north northwest over the next few days and be at its closest approach to Cape Hatteras on Wednesday, landfall is not expected, but portions of the outer banks may see some outer effects of Maria.

Those along the coast in North Carolina and northward should continue to watch Maria, but direct landfall is not expected. Its too soon to tell how much impact may occur, however.



6AM EDT 22 September 2017 Update

From here all the models, save the CMC, take Maria out to sea. With Wednesday being the key day for any potential surprises based on that. However, with so much going against it it appears out to sea remains the most likely scenario.

Maria is passing just to the east of the Turks and Caicos today, close enough for them to feel many of the affects. Beyond that North Carolina and Bermuda will want to keep an eye on it, but it appears neither will see direct impacts (other than heavy surf, minor coastal flooding, and rip currents)

8PM EDT 20 September 2017 Update



Maria's eye is clearing out again. The mountains of Puerto Rico did disrupt it, but did not destroy it. Maria is likely to restrengthen some (probably not to cat 5 again as it'll be going over the waters stirred up by Irma), and may get very close or the western side to the Turks and Caicos, but the NHC's track seems good. She's very likely to stay well east of Florida.

Puerto Rico was absolutely devastated though, and it's still raining in parts that flooded (and flooded well beyond record flood levels)

1:15PM EDT 20 September 2017 Update
The center of Hurricane Maria is starting to exit PR this afternoon, but horrendous flooding rain, surge and brutal wind gusts will continue for hours yet to come - with inland flooding, rock and mudslides possibly lingering well beyond this week.

Initial recon data suggests that interaction with mountainous Puerto Rico has significantly diminished the hurricane, with minimum pressure now up to an extrapolated low 960s range, but this disruption is forecast to give way by tonight, with most models forecasting restrengthening, yet again, as Maria once again encounters a favorable to very favorable environment for intensification.

A coming brush with a Cat 4 or even 5 Maria for the Turks & Caicos can not be ruled out.

7:15AM EDT 20 September 2017 Update
Maria makes landfall near Yabucoa, PR and is over the island now. Power, Communication, radar and more are out in much of the eastern half of the Island. 155mph was the official windspeed, making it a category 4 (just under 5) at landfall.



7:00PM EDT 19 September 2017 Update
Recon recently reported 909mb pressure with 175mph winds.
The pressure makes this the #10 strongest (by pressure) ever recorded hurricane in the Atlantic basin.



2:30PM EDT 19 September 2017 Update

Quote:

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. - NHC



After the temporary disruption and loss of Category 5 status from having gone directly over the tall island nation of Dominca, Hurricane Maria has resumed Rapid Intensification, with recon now finding a minimum central pressure down to 920mb, with maximum sustained winds of about 165 MPH. Continued strengthening is very possible, and Maria could still be a Cat 5 (or potentially even a high-end Five) when she passes over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and that is in fact now reflected in the official NHC forecast.


8:00PM EDT 18 September 2017 Update
Maria is now an extremely dangerous, super compact Cat Five Major about to make landfall on Dominica.

5:00PM EDT 18 September 2017 Update
Maria is now a compact and violent 130 MPH Cat IV Major - still intensifying - with her center closing in on Dominica. With Maria's continued dramatic strengthening and very supportive conditions for additional strengthening ahead, it is becoming likely that Maria impacts - possibly directly - the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a very high-end Major - possibly even a high-end Five.

NHC
Quote:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 60.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES




Preparations to protect life should now be rushed to completion on the islands of Dominica, Guadeloupe and Martinique. On Maria's likely track, preparations to protect life and property should be nearing completion on the VIs and PR. Failure to take advantage of well-built hurricane shelters will almost certainly result in injury or even death.

HURRICANE MARIA
Recon has found that Maria is now a Hurricane. Conditions are alarmingly favorable that the cyclone could be or will soon be undergoing Rapid Intensification, and it is likely that Maria will be yet another very serious Major while on a trajectory that could take it directly over several of the islands recently impacted to greater or lesser degrees by Irma.

SUMMARY OF MARIA WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
Quote:


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines




For in-depth Maria model talk and more beyond the cone with us in the HURRICANE Maria Lounge

HURRICANE JOSE
Hurricane Jose continues its track to the north, with a bend to the northeast, then east, and southeast expected over the next several days. Should Jose continue on as forecast, the strongest impacts to the Northeast US may be kept offshore - however, dangerous swells generated by Jose are already affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. Dangerous surf and rip currents should be expected for days to come in these locations. In addition, Jose is forecast produce heavy rain totals over eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Any deviation to the left of NHC's track would increase the likelihood that even greater impacts to the US coast would likely be experienced.

SUMMARY OF JOSE WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
Quote:


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook
* Delaware Bay South
* East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket




For in-depth Jose model talk and more join us in the HURRICANE Jose Lounge

Maria Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Maria


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Maria (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Maria (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Maria

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Maria
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Maria -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Jose Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Jose


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Jose (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Jose (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Jose

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Jose
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Jose -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Northeast US Radar Links Northeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Dover, DE Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mt. Holly, NJ Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Upton/NYC/Long Island, NY Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Boston/Cape Cod, MA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Portland, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Carabou, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lee Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Lee


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lee (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Lee (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Lee

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Lee
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Lee -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA



Edited by MikeC (Sat Sep 23 2017 09:27 AM)


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Re: Dangerous Hurricanes Maria & Jose [Re: cieldumort]
      #98951 - Sun Sep 17 2017 09:59 PM

Barbados radar recording for Maria:

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?323

On the current moition it looks like Martinique will get the eye, unless it veers a bit more north.


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Re: Dangerous Hurricanes Maria & Jose [Re: cieldumort]
      #98958 - Mon Sep 18 2017 11:34 AM

Maria is a much smaller system than Irma was, but the winds are ramping up quickly, Dominica and Martinique may see some of the worst of it first. Recon is still finding it getting stronger, Cat 3 now, and going for 4.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Dangerous Hurricanes Maria & Jose [Re: cieldumort]
      #98962 - Mon Sep 18 2017 04:42 PM



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Re: Dangerous Hurricanes Maria & Jose [Re: cieldumort]
      #98964 - Mon Sep 18 2017 05:06 PM

From the discussion, Maria has developed a pinhole eye, which is capable of ramping up very quickly, but is also focusing the wind on a very small area at the same time, any land area which is goes over will likely be devastated.

Official 5pm has it at a cat 4, Dvorak satellite estimates have a higher windspeed than 130mph,. though. (Raw T numbers are at 7.1 which is roughly 165MPH)



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Re: Dangerous Hurricanes Maria & Jose [Re: MikeC]
      #98965 - Mon Sep 18 2017 05:26 PM

7.2-7.4 T numbers from Dvorak in the Goes-16 imagery, which is about 170mph based on satellite estimates. Recon is en route to get accurate readings.

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Marknole
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Re: Dangerous Hurricanes Maria & Jose [Re: MikeC]
      #98966 - Mon Sep 18 2017 07:19 PM

Think the peninsula is numb after Irma. Five days w/o power here in N. Fla. Horrible for PR, but confident in the poleward turn. Question: doesn't the organization and very compact eye/center imply an even larger hurricane to come?

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Re: Dangerous Hurricanes Maria & Jose [Re: Marknole]
      #98967 - Mon Sep 18 2017 07:24 PM

Quote:

Question: doesn't the organization and very compact eye/center imply an even larger hurricane to come?





A small eye is not a stable situation for a hurricane, but as of yet, there aren't any outer bands showing enough wrap-around to suggest an ERC is close to imminent. As such, in the near term, Maria may intensify into a mega-tight Cat 5, or even high-end 5. Assuming a replacement cycle begins at some point, the wind field would expand, and the process would likely repeat itself.


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Re: Cat 4 Maria Could Devastate Several Islands and Jose Lingers Offshore [Re: cieldumort]
      #98968 - Mon Sep 18 2017 07:36 PM

Recon report 925mb 160mph winds (SFMR)

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Re: CAT FIVE MARIA NEARING LANDFALL [Re: cieldumort]
      #98969 - Mon Sep 18 2017 08:21 PM



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Re: CAT FIVE MARIA NEARING LANDFALL [Re: cieldumort]
      #98972 - Mon Sep 18 2017 09:21 PM

In-situ Maria obs on Dominica Weather Underground J73WA Weather Station IXXPORTS2

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Re: CAT FIVE MARIA NEARING LANDFALL [Re: cieldumort]
      #98973 - Mon Sep 18 2017 09:53 PM


Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
935 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA MAKES LANDFALL ON DOMINICA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


Radar data from Martinique and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports indicate that Maria made landfall on Dominica around 915 PM AST (0115 UTC) with estimated winds of 160 MPH (260 KM/H).

The next update will be the 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC) complete advisory
package.

SUMMARY OF 935 PM AST...0135 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM SE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


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Re: CAT FIVE MARIA AND STORM JOSE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98974 - Mon Sep 18 2017 11:51 PM



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Re: CAT FIVE MARIA AND STORM JOSE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98978 - Tue Sep 19 2017 06:00 AM

Today will be the last day for preparations in the Virgin Island and Puerto Rico, use it wisely.

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Re: CAT FIVE MARIA AND STORM JOSE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98982 - Tue Sep 19 2017 11:04 AM

Maria is right now passing directly over this NOAA buoy
Station 42060 - Caribbean Valley - 63 NM WSW of Montserrat


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: CAT FIVE MARIA AND STORM JOSE [Re: MikeC]
      #98984 - Tue Sep 19 2017 03:17 PM

st croix webcams:
{mqdefault_live.jpg }

flhurricane recording of sand castle on the beach (St Croix) http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?327


San Juan Long range radar recording: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?326



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Re: CAT FIVE MARIA AND STORM JOSE [Re: MikeC]
      #98985 - Tue Sep 19 2017 04:39 PM

Recon just found a pressure of 916mb, which is approaching Irma's minimum of (914)

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Re: CAT FIVE MARIA AND STORM JOSE [Re: MikeC]
      #98988 - Tue Sep 19 2017 06:56 PM

Last recon has Maria at 910mb (now it top 10 lowest pressures for the Atlantic) and approx 175mph winds. Godspeed St. Croix and Puerto Rico.

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Re: CAT FIVE MARIA AND STORM JOSE [Re: MikeC]
      #98989 - Tue Sep 19 2017 07:01 PM

Reports just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased
to 175 mph (280 km/h). The estimated minimum pressure based on
data from the aircraft is 909 mb (26.84)


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Re: CAT FIVE MARIA AND STORM JOSE [Re: MikeC]
      #98990 - Tue Sep 19 2017 07:19 PM

Recon's most recent dropsonde caught a 168 knot (193mph) wind, so 8pm may have higher wnds than 175 in the position update.

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