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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
HUR Lee Lounge
      #98908 - Thu Sep 14 2017 09:47 AM



A convectively active, but somewhat disorganized wave located south-southeast of the Cabo Verdes has been Invest tagged this morning, 97L.

This disturbance has a little model support for some development as it moves westward around 10 - 15 MPH. As of this post, NHC has given it a 40% chance of developing within the next 5 days, although conditions may become less favorable for its development by early next week.

11PM update 2017/09/14



The 11PM advisory now has 97L designated as Tropical Depression 14. The Storm is currently forecast to move generally west then west north west over the next 5 days. Intensity forecasts have TD 14 just below hurricane strength before weakening TD 14 from shear in days 4 and 5.

Lee is now yet another 2017 hurricane.

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 24 2017 02:27 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: TS Lee Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98937 - Sat Sep 16 2017 12:45 PM

FOURTEEN has become Tropical Storm Lee as of 1200z Sep 16. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be at least 35 knots based improved convection and a partial ASCAT pass from around 1100 that indicated some winds to tropical storm force were occurring.

The official NHC forecast calls for Lee to remain a weak tropical storm steered by the low level flow (generally to the west), and to become a remnant low by late next week while still well east of the Lesser Antilles. Should such an intensity and directional track confirm, Lee - or his remnants - could still be a weather maker for the islands next weekend or the following week (last week in September) if the area of low pressure hasn't been completely obliterated by shear and/or dry air.

Alternatively, Lee or his remnants track more poleward, which is a solution favored by the 12Z CMC, GFS, UKMET, others - especially plausible if Lee remains stronger than NHC forecasts.


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B.C.Francis
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: TS Lee Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98938 - Sat Sep 16 2017 04:28 PM

I hate to say it but TD #15 soon to become Tropical Storm Maria and then probably Hurricane Maria has me a little bit concerned here in Brevard County.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: TS Lee Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99015 - Fri Sep 22 2017 10:10 AM




Lee become a remnant low a while ago, defeated by strong shear, and the last NHC Advisory on Lee was written 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017. The remnants stretched out into a surface trof, but a mid-level vort remained.

Over the past few days NHC increased odds of regeneration up to 70% at one point, but then dropped it entirely last night, effectively down to near zero from just 10% earlier in the day.

However, a new closed surface circulation became apparent farther north along the Trof of Remnant Lee, and convection began increasing in association with the area of low pressure overnight. As of first light this morning, this low now appears to be a small Tropical Cyclone, but yet there are no new advisories, let alone any mention in the 8AM TWO.

It is possible that NHC wants to see if it doesn't quickly flame out, in which case, there would be a strong argument to add this to the post-season report. It is not clear if this low would be considered Lee, however, as it is clearly not the same surface vort. On the other hand, it is arguably more "Lee," than not.

Regardless of whether this cyclone gets mentioned in real-time, or noted post-season, it is well out at sea, presently on the weak side, and mostly spinning fish. It could though have an impact on steering currents of Maria down the road.


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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TS Lee Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99019 - Fri Sep 22 2017 04:54 PM

NHC has restarted advisories on Lee, conservatively estimating the winds at 30 knots. Operationally, Invest 98L (now Lee, again) was designated at 2017 09 22 1800z while around 30.5N 49.30W.

Tropical Cyclone Lee is forecast to remain in a low-shear environment for several days over marginally warm SSTs, but with anomalously cold upper level temps. This should help the cyclone intensify, possibly rapidly given its small size. However, any increased shear may also quickly weaken it, for the same reason.

Lee may become another yet another 2017 hurricane before the end of the week, but this one remains well out at sea.


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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HUR Lee Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99029 - Wed Sep 27 2017 10:49 PM

Lee Majors. I know this was everyone's six million dollar question.

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