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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 11 (Nate) , Major: 29 (Maria) Florida - Any: 39 (Irma) Major: 39 (Irma)
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: 90L Lounge (West Caribbean) [Re: Prospero]
      #99066 - Fri Oct 06 2017 10:45 AM

Quote:

Skinniest Cone from NOAA I have ever seen!




I thought the same thing! The low over S FL really moved west out of the way quickly. I sure didn't believe that was going to happen yesterday as this low has been sitting off the coast for what seemed like a week. Now things seem to be happening fast with Nate. Models are very much in agreement on a LA/MS border landfall. They do show a small hook to the NE at the end which could mean a MS, AL, or FL landfall. As all these states touch the northern GOM so it could effect any of them. At this point Nate is large and kind of broken up, so I assume its going to struggle a bit till it hits those warm GOM waters given its surrounded by land.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Nate Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99067 - Fri Oct 06 2017 10:50 AM

Recon is showing the system on the eastern edge of the models (Euro Ensembles) and east of the forecast cone by a fair margin, I'd expect the track to shift east somewhat at 11AM.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Nate Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #99068 - Fri Oct 06 2017 11:37 AM

Quote:


Does anyone else see a competing surface low becoming dominant to the east of the current surface low? Recon data seems to be hinting at that possibility.




This mission has been flying up around 5000' and suggests that the mid-level center is possibly misaligned from the surface low pressure minimum, perhaps some overall vortex tilting with height (leftovers from yesterdays southwesterly shear? maybe with the overall influence from the parent gyre?) Either way, Nate is lopsided, with the stronger winds by far in the northeastern quadrant, well away from the surface pressure minimum, and mostly much weaker winds in the western semicircle ... potential implications for Florida, even if landfall point is much further west.

With deep convection globules located well southwest, over, and well northeast of the surface center, within the large region of parent vorticity, model runs that suggested satellite vorts of one kind or another seem realistic enough. Interesting to watch play out - tricky forecast, tho


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Nate Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99077 - Sat Oct 07 2017 01:01 AM

Compare tonight's 0345z image to last night's 0615z. Nate has devoured everything else in sight. Even hard to tell there is a parent Gyre left.

Combined with low shear and very high oceanic heat content, the stage has been set for RI. Watch out for more upside surprises to the official forecast today. Odds of Nate reaching Major before or into landfall are ominously real. Even a vicious Cat 1 "it was only a Cat 1!" can do tremendous damage, and take countless lives, let's not forget.




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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 121
Re: Nate Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99090 - Sat Oct 07 2017 12:09 PM

The biggest surprise will come from the fact that the forward speed of the storm is additive to the windfield on the east side (and obviously subtractive on the west); it'll seem like not much at all west-of-center, but on the east that extra 20mph is a lot!

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richg
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 10
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
Re: Nate Lounge [Re: Genesis]
      #99094 - Sat Oct 07 2017 04:35 PM

My understanding, after years of reading this forum, is the forward motion of the storm is included in the NHC forecasts.

Good luck to Biloxi and everyone else in the path.


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Nate Lounge [Re: richg]
      #99095 - Sat Oct 07 2017 06:17 PM

Quote:

My understanding, after years of reading this forum, is the forward motion of the storm is included in the NHC forecasts.




This is correct. The maximum winds as posted by NHC already include any and all additions, such as forward speed.


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Nate Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99096 - Sat Oct 07 2017 06:34 PM

Nate's lopsided and slightly still-incoherent structure has been making it challenging for the cyclone to continue to strengthen in the presence of increasing shear, dry air, and slowly cooling SSTs, and it is now looking less possible that Nate comes ashore as a Major. However, this is not the time to conclude all is well. Nate is a ferocious Category One Hurricane, with a very strong and long fetch of southerly winds blowing in, with attendant significant storm surge, and damaging gusts. Also, the usual risk for tornadoes exists, and SPC has 5% TORN probabilities up.

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