Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2019 and ends on Nov 30th, 2019.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 63 (Michael) , Major: 63 (Michael) Florida - Any: 63 (Michael) Major: 63 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> 2018 Storm Forum

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)
IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 78
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99315 - Mon Jun 18 2018 04:41 PM

Good call for 2018. Tropical Atlantic SST's are running a good 3F below last year and are the coolest mid-June seas surface temperatures since the early 1980's: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capi...m=.df187c9f3b79

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 30
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99316 - Tue Jun 19 2018 04:38 PM

Good article.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 78
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: Keith B]
      #99318 - Fri Jun 22 2018 01:52 PM

Indeed. very thankful that Dr. Klotzbach is diligently carrying the CSU tropical meteorology research "torch".

Given the increased cooling of the tropical Atlantic in June, should've stuck my original call for 13/6/2. However, my "gut" feeling is there could be a flurry of activity later in the season very close to home that will boost the tally a bit. The western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and even the Florida Straits could originate systems if atmospheric parameters line up favorably with peak SST's achieved a bit later than climatology (early Sept) suggests. I also feel the Sargasso Sea area in the Atlantic basin could be a "hot bed" to departing system intensification, possibly supporting the season's expectation of 2 -3 major hurricanes. Thankfully for areas in the Caribbean and Florida Keys that were hammered by majors last year, Cape Verde origin systems will not have oceanic thermal support unless there is a radical reversal of early summer's significantly cooler SST's.

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Jun 22 2018 01:54 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
demiphillips090
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99351 - Sat Jul 28 2018 01:59 AM

hello

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Jul 28 2018 04:07 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 78
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99835 - Fri Oct 19 2018 01:30 PM

It is looking like the fat lady may be testing her vocal chords to sing her swan song with dew point suppression from progressively stronger frontal activity scouring out the near-home basins. If so, Mike C's near perfect 14/7/3 (one off on majors) is top call. Looks like Doug (13/7/3) and I (14/6/3) tied for second.

2018 seasonal statistics (as of 10/19): Total storms: 14; Hurricanes: 7 ; Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 2

Total fatalities
137 (and counting)

Total damage
> $21.57 billion (2018 USD)

source: Wikipedia

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Oct 19 2018 01:44 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99844 - Sun Oct 28 2018 05:25 PM

Some thoughts regarding the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

To open, it's blasted through my own and all official forecasts, so at least those of us who underbid are in good (bad) company ;-)

And despite frontal activity scouring close to home, it may actually continue to be busier than average for longer still - possibly even into the final month of the season, or even the year (with the "official" hurricane "season" ending on November 30, but with any "season" total always actually including from first named storm to last in any given year regardless of date).

2018 has been a very good year for subtropical storms (which later transitioned into tropical). The ocean-atmosphere state that has made this so very possible is still in place. The most recent example of this is now Tropical Storm Oscar, that might also very well become a Major hurricane - and possibly also a long-lived tropical cyclone, further beefing up this season's ACE.

A very intriguing footnote to the above is also that the Mediterranean and Black Sea region (calling them a region together, even though no RSMC has yet to really step up with taking responsibility for them), has seen a half dozen - you read correctly - six - subtropical/tropical cyclones "Medicanes" this year to date. Arguably strongest of these at landfall, Zorba, caused catastrophic surge, rain and wind damage in parts of the region.

In addition, perhaps adding to the numbers as we now know them, odds favor post-season reanalysis to look at upgrades to one or more of our named systems so far: Tropical Storm Gordon (Possibly attained Cat 1), Hurricane Helene (Possibly attained Cat 3), and Michael (Possibly attained Cat 5) all jump out for review.

And as always there exists the possibility that NHC finds a previously unidentified subtrop or tropical cyclone. (September 98L comes immediately to mind as a candidate for review).

The big picture view from 50,000' is that 2018 has certainly been overachieving.

So what happened? It's a very good question and one which experts are already looking at and are sure to do so for some time to come.

There may be some other large-scale events that get special attention in their endeavor. One, 2018 is the first year of more reliable records that every single basin in the Northern Hemisphere has been above average. Another, while an El NiƱo is still forecast to form this year, it has had a delayed full onset, and obviously would thus impact just too late to prevent the busy year in the Atlantic underway.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99855 - Fri Nov 30 2018 01:32 PM

15/8/2 is the final number at the close of the season. Liz was closest with 15/8/4 Frederick was also very close with 14/8/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 3 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 7579

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center