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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4110
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Labor Day Week Gulf of Mexico [Re: M.A.]
      #99446 - Sun Sep 02 2018 11:42 AM

Not quite closed based on the ACSAT, but getting there, probably will be tomorrow at the latest. It'll likely remain weak even in the Gulf, rainmaker is still the most likely scenario, IMHO. However, there's enough uncertainty, to say no one should let their guard down.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 859
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Labor Day Week Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #99451 - Sun Sep 02 2018 04:13 PM

Sat presentation starting to look circular this afternoon. earth.nullschool.net does not analyze a closed surface circulation, but does indicate a slightly elongated closed circulation at 700mb. Models seem to indicate formation near the Florida Straights. More rain (already saturated here in the Tampa Bay area) for central and south Florida.

--------------------
Michael
2018 Actual: 14/7/2

Edited by MichaelA (Sun Sep 02 2018 04:15 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Labor Day Week Gulf of Mexico [Re: MichaelA]
      #99452 - Sun Sep 02 2018 04:24 PM

Ensembles (Florence's 10 day tracks starting to show up on the map here)



Still no Low level circulation I can find (Radar or satellite) at the moment.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Labor Day Week Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #99457 - Mon Sep 03 2018 07:31 AM

Most models are showing 7 making landfall as a tropical storm, HWRF the notable exception with a borderline Cat 1/2 hurricane making landfall.

Ensembles

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