Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2019 and ends on Nov 30th, 2019.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 65 (Michael) , Major: 65 (Michael) Florida - Any: 65 (Michael) Major: 65 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
NW Gulf TD-Like Low
      #99449 - Sun Sep 02 2018 03:41 PM



An area of low pressure we have been watching in the far northwestern Gulf has been showing more signs of organizing today. Presently elongated southwest to northeast, it appears to be closed off, and may become more spherical in time.

Despite the very limited ocean left in its path, given that it may continue to feed off some brown ocean effect from portions of Louisiana and Southeast Tx while also ingesting copious amounts of warm moist air from the Gulf, there is chance that a TD-like system is emerging, with an outside chance of outright tropical cyclogenesis.

Because of this system's potential to impact Louisiana and Texas with heavy if not flooding rains paying close attention over the next several days may be strongly advised - and perhaps especially so should this disturbance end up slowing down/stalling. There is also the chance that this ends up laying down heavy rains in advance of Invest 91L - should that disturbance also track more west. A potential double whammy.

NHC is not yet mentioning this disturbance in the most recent TWOs but if trends continue this may be Invest tagged and mentioned by tomorrow.

Title changed to reflect the fact that this system is now very T.D.-Like

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 02 2018 06:32 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: New: NW Gulf Tropical Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #99450 - Sun Sep 02 2018 03:44 PM



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: New: NW Gulf Tropical Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #99453 - Sun Sep 02 2018 06:11 PM

Stunning. This is very nearly if not a T.D. now. NHC may or may not warn on this in real-time and leave to regional NWS offices to handle instead, but it's time to take note.

Maximum sustained winds only 20-25 MPH so far, but the wind isn't the concern with this one. It's the rain.




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: NW Gulf TD-Like Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #99455 - Mon Sep 03 2018 02:21 AM




Time may have finally run out for this one. With the mid-level circulation center now apparently fully inland and nothing left at the surface late tonight, this Tropical Low will probably continue to derive most of its energy from daytime heating (whereas a true TC would have been able to sustain if not intensify after the sun went down). But wow was this close. Just a little more time over water and the NW Gulf could have been dealing with an entirely more formidable system.

With the weak low now inland, there remains a possibility for it to 'landphoon,' and so is worth keeping an eye out for that. Regardless, heavy showers and some storms are likely along its path, which could make the situation worse for some along SEVEN's future track.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: NW Gulf TD-Like Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #99473 - Mon Sep 03 2018 03:16 PM



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 10 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 1133

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center