Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2019 and ends on Nov 30th, 2019.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 68 (Michael) , Major: 68 (Michael) Florida - Any: 68 (Michael) Major: 68 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Helene Lounge
      #99483 - Tue Sep 04 2018 07:50 PM




Yet another significant African Easterly Wave is about to roll off that continent and into the far eastern Atlantic, to the east or east-northeast of Invest 92L.

This wave will be entering a region of modest potential for development over the next five days. Tropical Cyclogenesis within five days may tend to whisk this wave quickly northbound, but delayed development could actually make it much more of a landfall risk for the islands and nations further west.

This wave is not yet Invest tagged, but be so by the end of this week, and NHC has already given it a 20% opening bid for development within 5 days.

This vigorous wave is now being tracked as Invest 93L and the title has been updated accordingly. - Ciel
9/8 11AM AST - 93L is now PTC 8. 9/8 5PM This PTC 8 is now TD8.

Edited by MikeC (Sat Sep 08 2018 12:15 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: NEW - E. Atlantic Wave [Re: cieldumort]
      #99495 - Thu Sep 06 2018 03:25 AM

Looking much better tonight - even being over land - and very close to rolling off into the far east Atlantic. This wave will likely be Invest tagged on short order. NHC development odds now 50% within 5 days, which may be conservative. Many models, however, aren't so hot on it, but those that are suggest either a quick turn north, or a quick extinguishing. The latter could be more concerning down the road.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 30
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: NEW - E. Atlantic Wave [Re: cieldumort]
      #99502 - Thu Sep 06 2018 08:02 PM

I was not able to post this on FB. The link and or FB was not working..

Very interesting 8p update.

2. A tropical wave and an accompanying low pressure system near the
west coast of Africa is producing a large area of thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the
weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Interests in the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this system, and potential
tropical cyclone advisories could be issued on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
NHC 8p update.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mike V
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: NEW - E. Atlantic Wave [Re: Keith B]
      #99514 - Fri Sep 07 2018 10:48 PM

Now Tropical Storm Helene as of the 11PM advisories.

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99518 - Sat Sep 08 2018 02:18 AM

Quote:

NHC's Best Track file shows Helene became a tropical storm at 18.0W longitude. Pending verification, this would be the easternmost forming TS in the Atlantic HURDAT2 database, surpassing Ginger 1987 (18.1W) & Fred 2015 (18.4W)



-Tomer Burg


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 8 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 2298

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center