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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Michael Lounge
      #99707 - Fri Oct 05 2018 02:01 PM

2018 10 05 1800z 16.0N 84.3W 25KTS 1007MB

ALXX Visible 10-5-18 1800z Courtesy Weathernerds.org

An Area to Watch, Invest 91L, is becoming more consolidated near the northeastern tips of Nicaragua and Guatemala today. This feature is associated with a surface trof interacting with a large Central American Gyre centered to its southwest, and an upper-level low to its north/northwest.

Upper-level winds are gradually becoming less challenging for development, and are expected to become somewhat conducive to outright favorable as early as later this weekend, and a Tropical Depression could form within the next 48 hours, or likely by mid next week at the very latest.

This Area to Watch (91L) has been a large part of the ongoing discussion we have up on the Central American Gyre, which itself may very gradually evolve into a numbered tropical cyclone and/or spin out additional disturbances (possibly tropical cyclones) while it persists in a somewhat stuck pattern though much of October.

Invest 91L is now PTC FOURTEEN and NHC Advisories will begin at 4PM CDT. At 11:55am CDT Oct 7 FOURTEEN is now Michael with winds of at least 40 MPH - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Oct 07 2018 01:03 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99709 - Fri Oct 05 2018 03:12 PM

12Z Model roundup for 91L

12Z GFS , Cat 2 hurricane landfall near Panama City Beach, FL Wednesday evening.
12Z Euro Weak Depression/TS landfall near Pensacola, FL Thursday morning
12Z FV3 GFS - Cat 1 hurricane landfall near Gulfport, MS Tuesday night
12Z CMC - Cat 2 landfall W of Grand Isle, LA Wed Afternoon
12Z Ukmet - Cat 2 Landfall near Destin, FL Late Wed Afternoon

Note the Euro fires up another system in the W. Caribbean at the endo fthe run, and 91L system loops back into the Gulf a week from Sunday night.

12Z Euro Ensembles:


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99711 - Fri Oct 05 2018 06:59 PM

18Z GFS is a little stronger, Cat 3 Destin landfall Wednesday afternoon (moving fairly quickly).
18Z FV3 GFS has a cat 2 landfall near Gulfport, MS Tuesday afternoon.
18Z German Icon, with the shorter run ends the run with a cat 2 west of Tampa in the Gulf.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99713 - Sat Oct 06 2018 06:08 AM

0z Model run summary pretty wide range

0z EURO Landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane just west of Ft. Walton Beach (Santa Rosa Island), Thursday morning. Then drifts inland east toward Tallahassee (lots of rain)
0z GFS Cat 2 landfall in the big bend near Fish Creek late Wednesday night. Exits near Savannah Georgia and rides coast up through Sc/NC and out by the outer banks. (Hurricane most of the time)
0z CMC Cat 1 landfall near Grand Isle, LA Wednesday morning, then rapidly iland.
0z FV3 GFS Cat 2 landfall near Pensacola/Mobile Tuesday night. then inland.
0z German Icon Cat 2 landfall near Panama City Beach Wednesday night.
0z UKMet landfall in Big Bend near Perry, FL Cat 3 early Thursday morning.

In just now 6z GFS:
6z GFS Landfall borderline cat 3, landfall near Mexico Beach, FL Wednesday night
6z HWRF Cat 3/4 landfall near Pensacola Beach early Wednesday morning.
6z HMON Tropical Storm Landfall SE Louisiana Tuesday night.

Euro Ensemble Spread Louisiana to Ft Myers::



In short LA to Florida needs to watch, things could change very quickly.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99714 - Sat Oct 06 2018 01:57 PM

12Z GFS Landfall cat 2 Pensacola Beach late Wednesday morning.
12Z FV3 GFS Landfall cat 2 Pensacola Beach, early Wednesday morning.
12Z CMC Landfall Cat 1 SE Louisiana Wednesday morning
12Z Icon Landfall Cat 3 Midday Wednesday near Mexico Beach, FL
12Z HWRF Cat 3 landfall near Laguna Beach/Destin, FL Wednesday morning.
12Z UKMET: Landfall Cat 3 near St. George's Island, FL late Wednesday night.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99717 - Sun Oct 07 2018 04:19 AM

Overnight model run summary:
Official forecast is for a tropical storm based on TVCN and Ships guidence, with the caveat that it does not match the global models. In short, it's not too reliable for intensity before it gets into the Gulf. However the reasoning is solid. Track is more reasonable, but the spread in the cone is there. In short things are a bit iffy in the forecast for the Gulf before the system is in the Gulf.

0Z GFS: Cat 2 landfall near Destin Wednesday afternoon.
0Z Euro Cat 3 landfall near Panama City Beach Early (just after midnight) Thursday morning
0Z FV3 GFS: Cat 1 landfall near Mobile Bay late Tuesday night.
0Z UKMET Cat 2 landfall near St. George's Island Wednesday night
0Z CMC, Clips Mississippi River Delta then landfall near Pascagoula, MS Wednesday morning Cat 1 hurricane.
0Z ICON, Cat 2 landfall near Panama City Beach late Wednesday afternoon.
0Z HWRF, Cat 3 landfall near Destin Late Wednesday morning.
0z HMON, Cat 1 landfall near Mobile Bay Wednesday morning.

Euro ensemble spread:



Based on this, those in the NHC's cone start preps today (if you haven't already) Today and Monday will likely be the only full clear days to do so. You may have part of Tuesday also, but by late Tuesday afternoon things may start to deteriorate.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99719 - Sun Oct 07 2018 05:58 AM

6Z Models:

6Z GFS, Cat 3 hurricane landfall Destin Midday Wednesday.
6Z FV3 GFS, Cat 3 landfall East side of Mobile, AL Wednesday morning
6Z HWRF Cat 4 Landfall near Panama City Beach, Midday Wednesday
6Z HMON Cat 2 Landfall Mobile Bay, Wednesday Morning



Yeah, those in the area of the Panhandle need to start preps *TODAY*.


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Joeyfl
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99720 - Sun Oct 07 2018 06:02 AM

Overall some shift east in models overnight. With euro now considerably stronger than previous runs. I think alot of people are going to be caught off guard with this one. Everyone from Tampa to Pensacola should be watching very closely the next 24hrs where it is once it enters gulf is it over to yucatan or closer to western Cuba will eventually determine how far west or east he goes. I'm leaning towards big bend solutions considering its slow initial movement and sharpness of incoming through.

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Prospero
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #99721 - Sun Oct 07 2018 06:19 AM

I'm filling up the gas tanks in both cars today here in Gulfport, FL.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99722 - Sun Oct 07 2018 11:53 AM

12z models as they come in

12Z GFS gets 14 into hurricane state tomorrow in the Gulf, the cat 3 landfall near Destin late Wednesday afternoon.
12Z CMC clips SE louisiana and landfalls near Biloxi, MS as a cat 1 hurricane Wednesday morning. (CMC Remains the western outlier)
12Z Ukmet, landfall in the Big Bend/Steinhatchee Cat 3 hurricane (nearly a 4) Wednesday
12Z FV3 Landfall near Pensacola Beach Wednesday morning, Cat 3.


12Z Euro (out to 76 hours) stronger and moving a bit slower than earlier runs., landfall Thursday midday near Apalachicola 946 mb (strong cat 3).

12z Euro plot: Pressures on right


from http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_michael.png

Not a good trend to see.

Euro Ensembles:






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EMS
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99724 - Sun Oct 07 2018 02:55 PM

Is there radar in the vicinity of the center anymore? On satellite looks like center may be reforming east of the official position.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #99728 - Sun Oct 07 2018 03:38 PM

Quote:

Is there radar in the vicinity of the center anymore? On satellite looks like center may be reforming east of the official position.




There is radar reaching the recon-fixed center, but that center is also outside of the deeper convection, and returns may be less than ideal for tracking.

Looks like center reformations may be occurring and may continue into that deeper convection to the east, which keeps getting displaced by shear, at least until shear really relaxes.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #99729 - Sun Oct 07 2018 03:48 PM

This is a little disconcerting. Wind shifts aloft into the deepest convection. Flight level 2300'

Clean 45-50 kt SFMR at the surface. Apparent center reformation attempt underway well east of first Fix.



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MichaelA
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99731 - Sun Oct 07 2018 05:01 PM

Waiting impatiently for the 4PM CDT advisory.......
If the center fix is more to the East, I’m sure track guidance will shift eastward. The entire Gulf Coast of Florida should be alert.
It will be interesting to see what the models do with the new center location.

--------------------
Michael
2018 Actual: 15/7/2

Edited by MichaelA (Sun Oct 07 2018 05:50 PM)


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Joeyfl
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #99733 - Sun Oct 07 2018 05:54 PM

It is a bit concerning don't want to hit panic button quite yet. Recon seems to finding center reformation even further east closer to mid level center. Possibly multiple centers. Folks in west coast florida stay aware nothing is for sure. Models may certainly shift east tonight just have to wait and see.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #99734 - Sun Oct 07 2018 05:55 PM

18Z models:

18Z GFS (started further west based on the pre-recon position instead of the newer one based on recon) shows a hurricane tomorrow morning, then moves into cat 3 territory by Tuesday night. Cat 3 (952) landfall Destin Wednesday afternoon.
18Z Icon : landfall near Panama City Beach, Cat 2, Wednesday afternoon (initialized at new recon location)
18Z FV3 GFS - Cat 3 landfall near Destin Wednesday morning.
18Z HMON cat 2/3 landfall near Destin late Wednesday afternoon.
18Z HWRF cat 4 landfall near Destin Wednesday afternoon.


The spread between Euro, GFS and UK is pretty wide for 3 days out.


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MichaelA
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Re: NEW: 91L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99735 - Sun Oct 07 2018 06:09 PM

The 00Z runs should initialize on the new center location. May or may not cause a forecast shift in the track.

--------------------
Michael
2018 Actual: 15/7/2


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99737 - Mon Oct 08 2018 03:58 AM

Michael appears to have gone through a little Rapid Intensification overnight. First recon pass of the second mission came in at 994, the second 983. There is now also a 7°C temp differential from outside the center and inside. In addition, the center is now solidly within the deeper convection, which itself has been both expanding and getting far better organized. This is a tropical cyclone set to blast through official numbers all else being equal. Interests in Western Cuba, Yucatan and even Florida Keys may want to begin taking at least some hurricane precautions, just in case. A mere wobble or two of direction, or, as is more possible with Michael strengthening more than expected early on, a track to the right of center line, can put several locations at risk formerly not so.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99738 - Mon Oct 08 2018 04:34 AM

Storm centered model runs from 0z 10-8

HWRF appears to have caught the deepening very well - so this is a model with a little extra cred today. Landfall Wednesday morning 927mb Cat 4 monster hurricane near Destin, Fl.

HMON - also caught deepening very well, tho maybe not as well as HWRF. Landfall also near Destin, Fl but as a borderline 2/3 (still extremely dangerous) also Wednesday morning.

GFS - A little behind the ball on intensification, but a good call on forecast location for 06Z. Landfall also near Destin, Fl as a still very dangerous 955mb Cat 3 Wednesday around noontime. Kind of have to let that 955mb sink in for a moment.

CMC - Called 06Z too far west and much too weak. Probably a model run to ignore, but in any case it calls for landfall along the Al/Fl border Wednesday morning as a low-end trop storm.

ECMWF - Landfall near Port St Joe early Thursday morning as a 935mb monster Cat 3.


Some takeaways -

These models unanimously agree that Michael's min pressure may come in lower than usual for Saffir-Simpson Category. As such, that energy is still going to manifest somehow, possibly in radius, possibly in peak gusts, etc.

There are several top models keying in on the Destin, Fl area for landfall.

None of these runs suggests a landfall along the Fl peninsula is in the cards (but will remain on dirty side of storm, regardless).

Edited by MikeC (Mon Oct 08 2018 05:24 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99740 - Mon Oct 08 2018 05:27 AM

0Z UkMet cat 4 into Apalachicola Wednesday afternoon. (Shift west from Big Bend)

The 0z euro does have a pressure at landfall typical of a cat 4 (941mb).

Wind gusts around 160mph near landfall on Euro also:



Euro ensembles:

Concentrated from Destin to Port St. Joe. Majority with Major hurricane status.



One thing I noticed is that the poleward outflow channel seems very well established in a lot of the model runs, which indicates little to no weakening before landfall. There's enough doubt that RI will happen (Again anyway) that the cat 4 likely won't happen, but a 3 is very likely.

Storm surge potential there with cat 3/4 a possibility is extreme.


.


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