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Tracking #94L in the SW Carib likely to produce very heavy rains over C America this coming week and a Wave nearing NE coast of S America
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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Hurricane Sergio
      #99683 - Sun Sep 30 2018 06:05 AM


Rosa & Sergio Sep 30, 2018 0930z Base image credit: Weathernerds.org

Another East Pac tropical cyclone that may very well impact the southwestern U.S. this season hot on the tails of Hurricane Rosa is Sergio. As of 4:00AM CDT, Sergio was centered near 12N 104.3W. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 50 MPH, and minimum central pressure 1001 MB.

Sergio is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and yet another East Pac Major by Tuesday.

East Pac tropical cyclones this time of year are often more likely to recurve back towards Mexico - mainland and/or the Baja peninsula, and from time to time, once in a while, they also make it to the southwest. Such is the case for Rosa now, and this is also looking increasingly likely for Sergio. However, unlike Rosa, when Sergio does begin turning northeast or north-northeast, models generally have him doing so while stronger for longer, and possibly tracking at a faster clip, thus limiting the potential weakening as the cyclone crosses into the U.S. during the second week in October.

If this faster forward speed verifies, Sergio may become less of a flash flood risk in the southwest as Rosa, but more of a wind threat (unusual - rare even). After passing through Arizona, the GFS and GFS FV3 send Sergio as a very powerful post-tropical cyclone into the middle of the U.S.

We'll be watching.

Title updated to Hurricane Sergio (actually already a Major now). - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Oct 06 2018 04:17 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hurricane Sergio [Re: cieldumort]
      #99715 - Sat Oct 06 2018 04:26 PM

Sergio is about ready to recurve and head back towards Baja, northwestern mainland Mexico and the SW US. Heavy, flooding rains may become a concern mid to late next week in these locations. By very late next week, the remnants of Sergio may merge with a west coast system to become a formidable storm in the central US.



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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Sergio [Re: cieldumort]
      #99818 - Fri Oct 12 2018 11:00 AM

Sergio is surging over the Baja this morning and losing its definition, with almost all of the convection displaced well to the northeast, leaving a shallow, expanding surface cyclone trailing behind.

Soon-to-be Post-Tropical Sergio or its remnant mid-level low will likely fly across mainland Mexico to arrive in southern New Mexico and/or extreme southwest Texas by midday Saturday. Combing with mid-latitude features, Sergio's remains will pose potentially serious flash flood and rock/mudslide risks from mainland Mexico into the southwest to central United States this weekend into early next week.


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