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#96L 's remnants now consolidating into a compact well-defined Low over the Bahamas. May head towards Bermuda eventually.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 38 (Michael) , Major: 38 (Michael) Florida - Any: 38 (Michael) Major: 38 (Michael)
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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99741 - Mon Oct 08 2018 05:58 AM

After looking at more high res Euro runs, it looks like it reaches 931mb right before landfall there.

Stupid levels of surge.. This cannot be repeated enough, the surge is likely going to be unbelievable at and east of the center. If you are told to evacuate, PLEASE do so.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99743 - Mon Oct 08 2018 06:36 AM

6z runs:

6z GFS Landfall Cat 3 near Destin midday Wednesday
6z ICON Landfall Cat 3 near Panama City Beach Wednesday evening.
6z FV3 Landfall Cat 3 near Destin Midday Wednesday
6z HWRF Landfall Cat 4 near Laguna Beach, FL Late Wednesday afternoon
6z HMON Landfall Cat 4 near Miramar Beach, FL Wednesday afternoon


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Bev
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Michael Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99747 - Mon Oct 08 2018 09:56 AM

It's beginning to show on Cuban radar.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../csbMAXw01a.gif

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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dolfinatic
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99748 - Mon Oct 08 2018 10:04 AM

At 1200 UTC, 08 October 2018, HURRICANE MICHAEL (AL14) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 20.9°N and 85.1°W. The current intensity was 65 kt and the center was moving at 7 kt at a bearing of 25 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb.
Concerning that it is moving more NNE. Put west coast of Florida in play if it persists. That will catch a lot of people by surprise. hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2018/al142018/


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #99749 - Mon Oct 08 2018 10:06 AM

I've been recording the NW Carib radar mosaic (including cuba radar)

https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?402


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doug
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99753 - Mon Oct 08 2018 11:06 AM

Good morning the WV loop seems to verify the projected pathway. The ULL coming in from the SE and the trough in the SW GOM should push the system northward just out side 85 W IMO

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doug


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IsoFlame
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: doug]
      #99756 - Mon Oct 08 2018 12:39 PM

Pressure continues to drop and everything appears to be falling in place for significant intensification. As soon as Michael clears the western tip of Cuba, the developing eye should become defined as deep/prolonged convection fires/wraps around the center of circulation over the 85F SST's under a lessening shear environment.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99758 - Mon Oct 08 2018 12:54 PM

12Z models:
12Z GFS Cat 3 near Miramar Beach, Wednesday afternoon.
12Z FV3 GFS Cat 3 near Destin, Wednesday afternoon
12Z UKMEt shifts west to Panama City Beach landfall Wed afternoon
12Z CMC Destin landfall Cat 3, Wed afternoon.
12Z Icon Cat 3 near Mexico Beach, FL Wed Afternoon
12Z HMON Cat 3 Near Panama City Beach, early Wednesday Evening
12Z HWRF Cat 3 Near Panama City Beach, late Wednesday Afternoon
12Z Euro Cat 3/4 Near Destin , late Wednesday Afternoon


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tracerrx
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99762 - Mon Oct 08 2018 04:14 PM

Looks like Recon has been tasked with flying a grid through the gulf? Assuming this is to collect better data of the conditions in front of the storm for future model runs?

Live Recon Track

EDIT: actually looks like both NOAA9 and NOAA2 are in the air

Edited by tracerrx (Mon Oct 08 2018 04:16 PM)


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craigm
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: tracerrx]
      #99764 - Mon Oct 08 2018 06:11 PM

Quote:

Looks like Recon has been tasked with flying a grid through the gulf? Assuming this is to collect better data of the conditions in front of the storm for future model runs?

Live Recon Track

EDIT: actually looks like both NOAA9 and NOAA2 are in the air




This is typical with most storms where the Gulfstream data NOAA9 Is flying at flt lvl 45,000 FT gathering dropsonde data through all layers of the atmosphere from 250 mb down to the surface while the Hercules and Orion’s gather data from the 750 mb layer and below, around 8,500 ft. They also determine pinpoint center fixes when an eye is not apparent.
Danielw, a regular on here is the expert on Hurricane hunters here and I am sure can improve on my explanation!

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Why I'm here:
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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99769 - Mon Oct 08 2018 07:24 PM

18z models
18Z GFS Cat 3 landfall Laguna Beach, FL Wednesday afternoon
18Z FV3 GFS Cat 3 landfall Destin, FL Wednesday afternoon
18Z CMC Cat 1 landfall near Destin, Wednesday Afternoon
18Z icon Cat 3 landfall Panama City Beach, FL Wednesday afternoon
18Z HWRF Cat 4 landfall Okaloosa Island/Ft. Walton Beach, FL Wednesday afternoon
18Z HMON Cat 3 landfall Miramar, FL Wednesday afternoon


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99773 - Mon Oct 08 2018 09:57 PM

what does the CMC now see, shear or dry air?

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #99777 - Tue Oct 09 2018 07:27 AM

0/6z runs: trend a bit stronger, later in the evening for landfall (rather than afternoon)

6Z GFS Cat 4 Landfall near Panama City Beach early tomorrow evening.
0Z Euro Cat 3/4 Landfall near Panama City Beach tomorrow evening.
6z FV3 GFS Cat 3 landfall near Miramar Beach, FL tomorrow evening.
0Z CMC Cat 2 Landfall near Destin early tomorrow evening.
6Z Icon Cat 3 Landfall near Panama City Beach tomorrow evening.
6z HWRF Cat 3 Landfall near Laguna Beach, FL late tomorrow afternoon
6z HMON Cat 3 Landfall near Grayton Beach, FL tomorrow afternoon

Euro ensembles



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99781 - Tue Oct 09 2018 02:46 PM

Without question, Michael is making a run for the Big Leagues, and may be a still-intensifying "Major" heading up to and/or right into landfall. Personally, I now put about 99.99% odds of attaining Cat 3 or higher, with a breakdown into the ranges as such

Less than Cat 3 almost 0%
Wind Cat 3 40%
Wind Cat 4 47.5%
Wind Cat 5 12.5%


Michael is going to be a fast-moving major wind hurricane, so we can expect damaging winds well-inland despite weakening from a Cat 3, 4 or 5.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99782 - Tue Oct 09 2018 02:54 PM

Some storm-centered model forecasts for landfall intensity and location

Swiss Super HD

931MB just east of Panama City. Gusts into the 160s.

Courtesy: Weather.US

ECMWF

934MB just west of Panama City. Gusts into the 160s.

Courtesy: Weather.US


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99785 - Tue Oct 09 2018 03:51 PM

It can't get much closer than this:



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lunkerhunter
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99813 - Wed Oct 10 2018 08:13 PM

Interested in a list of official and unofficial wind gusts. Apparently most of the official stuff along the coast became inoperable? Surprised more temporary stations weren’t set up from Panama City to Apalachicola.

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Owlguin
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99821 - Fri Oct 12 2018 01:03 PM

Looking back at the model runs, it seems like the CMC and the NAV picked up on this storm pretty early but not the other models. Is there any significance to that?

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Michael Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #99830 - Sun Oct 14 2018 05:23 PM

Quote:

Looking back at the model runs, it seems like the CMC and the NAV picked up on this storm pretty early but not the other models. Is there any significance to that?




These two models often run hot, and in the case of the NAV, also rather simplistic, making it easier to "see" things forming early on whether or not a more thorough examination might otherwise exclude them from developing.

All in all, once formed, models did do exceptionally well with regard to landfall location. As usual, intensity remains the biggest challenge for the models. An ERC never occurred, which was always a distinct possibility, and which could have knocked landfall down from the well-advertised "Major" to something more like a Cat 1/2. Thus Michael continued to take full advantage of the ocean-atmosphere environment, which was super supportive.


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