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#96L odds now down to just 10% per NHC, as upper-level winds and interaction with the Greater Antilles has been too much to handle
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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Ohio
Oscar Lounge
      #99837 - Wed Oct 24 2018 12:12 AM

A surface trough in the central Atlantic about 1000 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles looks poised to become our next classifiable system. It is getting heavily sheared now but should drift north into more favorable conditions over the next couple days. It does not have an invest tag but probably will soon. NHC chances of development are at 40% and climbing and most of the globals do develop it to varying degrees. It will most likely be a fish spinner getting picked up and swept out to the NE by a digging trough off the east coast in about a week, although Bermuda may want to keep an eye on it.

Edit: This area is now been dubbed Invest 95L with chances of development at 70%.

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Oct 27 2018 12:04 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1832
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Invest 95L [Re: vpbob21]
      #99843 - Fri Oct 26 2018 10:52 PM

An Invest (95L) we have been tracking roughly 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become Oscar, the 15th named storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of 0z 10/27, Oscar was centered near 26.4N 45.3 with maximum sustained winds of roughly 45 MPH. While expected to be a classic fish spinner, we will keep tabs on it just in case.

NHC Initial Forecast for Oscar
Quote:

INIT 27/0300Z 26.7N 45.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 27.2N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 26.6N 50.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 53.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 25.3N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 30/0000Z 26.5N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 34.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH




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