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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Hurricane Dorian Lounge
      #100050 - Fri Aug 23 2019 02:32 PM



Low pressure has formed in association with a vigorous tropical wave located about 1,300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. This Low is now being tracked as Invest 99L, with an updated bid from NHC of 50% odds of development within 5 days, and this could be conservative. Provided it pulls it together before entering the Graveyard, which looks increasingly possible if not likely, the Antilles may be at risk of significant impacts.

Models suggest strong High Pressure building in to its north should keep it on a general west-northwest course, and at the longer range this could put the southern U.S. in play. This one needs to be watched closely for land impacts from the Antilles and points west and northwest from there.

FIVE has become a Tropical Storm, Dorian, and the title has been updated accordingly today, Sat 8/24/19
8/28/19 Dorian is now a Hurricane
-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Aug 28 2019 02:25 PM)


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Mike V
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Reged: Sun
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Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100055 - Sat Aug 24 2019 10:46 AM

It's official, now TD5

723
WTNT35 KNHC 241442
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 47.9W
ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Five was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude
47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph
(19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today.
A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central
Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or
on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100057 - Sat Aug 24 2019 09:26 PM

Ok models have been pretty bad this year so far, not even predicting Dorian a few days ago. But now we have a tropical Storm that could potentially impact land as a hurricane, including the eastern Caribbean, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and beyond. The caveat it's still early, and the East Caribbean is where things may fall apart.

ensembles do show us needing to watch in Florida, as well as Puerto Rico, East Caribbean and Hispaniola over time. Although nothing is set in stone currently, so we'll monitor it closely over the next several days.

If the GEFS timing were to verify, it would be near Florida on Sunday Sep 1 into Monday Sep 2nd.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100061 - Sun Aug 25 2019 09:48 AM

Labor Day weekend if that verified. Early last evening both EURO and GFS models were in the same area at the 10 day or 240 hour forecast point... somewhere along the Florida Peninsula.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100062 - Sun Aug 25 2019 01:15 PM

Everyone is waiting for the "models" to tell us.......Okay so enter something in the models, so they tell us something, its just monkeys putting numbers, in a computer alga rhythm, and hitting go.

Nature and National geographic documentary also great they show a fancy graphic and call it a model, It shows them how the tornado works,,, and people watching think the computer figured it out, but it was the observer just entering data set, and making a beautiful Hollywood quality graphic for people to watch..


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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100063 - Sun Aug 25 2019 01:22 PM

if this thing goes major quick, before it reaches eastern carribean its going to be a big problem for everyone, especially Florida and the Carolinas, based on climatology alone, and some interesting upper features, a bit of basic math,navigation skills, ups and downs, timing, with no model support to look at.



Edited by Robert (Sun Aug 25 2019 02:15 PM)


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doug
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100064 - Sun Aug 25 2019 02:59 PM

Lots of shear over the system presently. No rapid intensification should occur. The models are merely telling us to be prepared by indicating a Florida threat in the long term.. this is catching the eye of some smart experienced folks. I am paying attention

--------------------
doug


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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100065 - Sun Aug 25 2019 03:59 PM

Looks like the high altitude flight departs tonight at 7pm, and first recon, departs, at 8pm, should have a better idea by this time tomorrow, hopefully the data will go into 12Z runs for the morning.
Bet we see better agreement in the short term, also a swing north sooner Puerto rico perhaps,

Edited by Robert (Sun Aug 25 2019 04:04 PM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #100066 - Sun Aug 25 2019 04:35 PM

It is worth being cautious and keeping a keen eye on Dorian.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100069 - Mon Aug 26 2019 07:40 AM

6z GFS keeps the system weak n of the Caribbean because an upper low forms in it. takes the remnants over Miami midday Sunday.

0z Euro with a landfall near Sewall's point (Stuart), FL Siunday afternoon. Weak system.

0z NavGem Cat 1 landfall near Miami Sunday afternoon.

0z Canadian takes it over Cuba.

0z German Icon takes it over the Keys on Sunday.

0z HWRF develops cat 1 hurricane in the SE Bahamas at the end of its run.

NOAA's new HAFS model takes .it in just south of Vero later Sunday as a hurricane.

0z UKMET takes it over PR then west through the Florida Straits into the Gulf where the run ends.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 970
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100070 - Mon Aug 26 2019 08:45 AM

Dry air is entering in the NW quadrant and moist air entering is impeded from the south by dry air also. This is inhibiting size and strength. There also is a bit of southerly shear which is common in the area where it is now moving through. It appears the dry air will move along with it and keep it modest at the worst.

--------------------
doug


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100071 - Mon Aug 26 2019 10:07 AM

These small storms are always tricky as the models have trouble getting a handle on them. Its a well organized little thing but in an environment that isn't super favorable. It could just run out of steam and disappear or continue to chug along then suddenly spring to life later.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100072 - Mon Aug 26 2019 11:49 AM Attachment (111 downloads)

Attached sat photo of dorian compare next post.

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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100073 - Mon Aug 26 2019 11:51 AM Attachment (117 downloads)

Andrew back in the day, upper feature over near bermuda, a low frontal trough that tried to become a depression off florida

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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100074 - Mon Aug 26 2019 11:54 AM Attachment (130 downloads)

Attached Water vapor of Dorien to compare next post.

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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100075 - Mon Aug 26 2019 11:55 AM Attachment (135 downloads)

Water vapor of Andrew back in the day

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Lautermilch
Registered User


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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100077 - Mon Aug 26 2019 12:51 PM

I was working at a computer company in Davie and on Friday August 21st I was 'reamed' for suggesting right before 6:00PM that we should be prepared to come in over the weekend and use trashbags to wrap equipment and other precautions. Everyone said that Andrew was not a threat of any kind and I was being a pessimist.

You never know. . . .


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Mike V
Weather Watcher


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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100078 - Mon Aug 26 2019 01:05 PM

That is an interesting comparison Robert, lets just hope history does not repeat itself. I can't handle another Andrew. Once was enough.

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma


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Kraig
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100079 - Mon Aug 26 2019 01:21 PM

Interesting, but also Andrew stayed well north of the islands and didn't have to deal with any terrain.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100080 - Mon Aug 26 2019 02:50 PM

Quote:

Interesting, but also Andrew stayed well north of the islands and didn't have to deal with any terrain.




Correct. Plus when it comes to 'canes historical data means little given the dynamics of the current localized environment.

Still good info and its always worth checking past history for trends or long term patterns.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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