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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Invest 96L Lounge
      #100685 - Fri Sep 13 2019 09:59 AM


Above: Invest 96L Visible 09-13-19 1345z. Image credit: Weathernerds.org

A stout wave in the Tropical Atlantic located about halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles has been producing somewhat persistent showers and thunderstorms. While not yet impressive, conditions for development look to be going up and model support is lukewarm overall for TC genesis while the wave travels generally west or west-northwestward towards the Lesser Antilles.

This wave has been Invest tagged 96L and as of this morning, Sep 13, NHC gives it coin toss odds of development within the next 5 days.

As there has been a trend of sorts this month so far for these waves to stay subdued or even wither, and thus resist pulls to the north, any slow initial development could put more land at risk for impacts next week.



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Robert
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Re: Invest 96L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100705 - Tue Sep 17 2019 10:23 AM Attachment (27 downloads)

In eastern caribbean now, still has center blow and reforms going. Originally had this going in the bahamas after having come up over hispaniola,, then models favored all the waves going, then they sorta dropped this one, and want the one behind it going TD10 now it looks like two out there are going, yet NHC mentions only TD10 wondering if its correct to assume all go in some way.
Models currently take 96 through Hispanola through straights florida, into gulf of mexico , i wonder if a split with the upper level low/ surface trough moving west, and part moving north out like humberto occurs again.
This system should it go as original and another storm forms in the bahamas and moves off the east coast will become enough trough to pull out Imelda later next week, but add enough ridge to put leeward islands in path.

Edited by Robert (Tue Sep 17 2019 10:39 AM)


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Robert
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Loc: Southeast, FL
Still there blowing up convection. [Re: cieldumort]
      #100713 - Wed Sep 18 2019 11:14 AM Attachment (47 downloads)

Attached, also looks like TD 10 got jerry not imelda.

Edited by Robert (Wed Sep 18 2019 12:23 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Still there blowing up convection. [Re: Robert]
      #100714 - Wed Sep 18 2019 11:37 AM

Forward speed is slowing down, and with this, convergence is on the increase - coinciding within a slightly more favorable mid/upper-level environment and plenty of moisture to work with. 96L looks the best it has in a long time. However, interaction with upper level trofs/lows ahead could delay or prevent any significant development - or even send it cruising to the east Pac. Will be interesting to see how it looks over the next 24-48 hours.

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Robert
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Re: Still there blowing up convection. [Re: cieldumort]
      #100715 - Wed Sep 18 2019 01:30 PM Attachment (23 downloads)

Still chugging along , looking better then ever in the central caribbean. No mention of it from National Hurricane Center, models had as a hurricane in the bahamas on the 21st, before the previously unmentioned swirl tracked from east of leeward islands into bahamas, split and formed Humberto, and imelda, raised heights downstream, then the models were onto this going through the central caribbean sea over eastern cuba, Miami, then hard turn out to sea over Abaco.
Then it perceived to disappear under northerly shear from the heightened high downstream pressure, only a ring few meters off ocean surface remained, pulsating at dawn.
The inputers of the models dropped it, rather then carry it on through.
Monday night passage into caribbean, find lighter shear, slowing steering currents and better conditions.
There was a center on radar, out of isle of St.Lucia , and the swirl continued on in sattelite.
Take a look at the wide view and the system looks pronounced it could, its definitive compare it to TS Jerry to the right, TD Imelda on the texas coast, and all the hurricanes and tropical storms in
The pacific.
Don't ever take your eye off something that won't go away.

As far as the track high pressure moving across much like every system this year, will slow, and pull this north westerly, a upper level low moving west over jaimiaca into northwest carribbean , and cut off upper level over floirdsa moves into the gulf ahead of the high diving south, , will ventalate and cause stair step west pattern, and this either becomes a hurricane and goes up to miami, then out to sea or it splits and, piece goes over miami into gulf, more rain for texas, and a piece goes north of the bahamas and gets going ou5t to sea like humberto.
Right now it looks together one not two, the big island mountains help, not hinder a weak system, it effectively kills one center leaving one to become dominate after passage, or broad low becomes tightened due to friction effects from land, also ,because a weak system is weak it does not get hurt as bad.
Expecting possible Tropical storm this sunday.
In previous model runs where this did get going it had jerry hit leeward islands, as ukmet was alluring to yesterday. Even if it does not hit it just adds to a slightly further west before recurve later, that may make the carolinas north need to watch.

Edited by Robert (Wed Sep 18 2019 02:08 PM)


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Robert
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Re: Still there blowing up convection. [Re: Robert]
      #100716 - Wed Sep 18 2019 02:11 PM

NHC Mentioned it again finally in 2pm outlook. 10% chance , movement towards the northwest.

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Robert
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Re: Still there blowing up convection. [Re: Robert]
      #100717 - Wed Sep 18 2019 03:17 PM Attachment (46 downloads)

Radar image from monday qaudelupe mon 18th. 1of2

Edited by Robert (Wed Sep 18 2019 03:21 PM)


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Robert
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Re: Still there blowing up convection. [Re: Robert]
      #100718 - Wed Sep 18 2019 03:22 PM Attachment (68 downloads)

Radar image from monday qaudelupe mon 18th. 2of2

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 96L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100723 - Sat Sep 21 2019 11:46 AM

96L not looking so good today, having been shredded for hours by shear on the order of 20 to 30 knots, and rising. What is left of the wave looks evident in the 850mb analysis extending from se of Jamaica, across eastern Cuba, to perhaps the southern Bahamas. Unsurprisingly, NHC has dropped development odds to near 0% over the next 5 days.

This wave may find itself in a less hostile - and even slightly favorable - region for some development early to mid next week, once in the western Gulf, and deserves to be watched. As noted elsewhere, it is always wise to keep an eye on disturbances that persist.

The primary concern with 96L - whatever comes out of it - is a track that favors taking it, or at least a substantial amount of its moisture, across SE TX, which most definitely does not want any more rain at this time with flooding and recovery still ongoing in the wake of Tropical Storm Imelda.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 96L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100731 - Mon Sep 23 2019 01:36 PM


Image credit: Weathernerds.org

Old Invest 96L has merged with preexisting trofiness draped WSW across the GOM that extends to Tropical Storm Jerry, and there are indications a LLC is at least attempting to form.

This region is not yet Invest tagged, but could soon be, and the title will be updated if assigned a new Invest number and will be a continuation of this same thread, as this continues to be the general development trend seen by some model runs for old Invest 96L.

Conditions for some development exist, and it would not be surprising to see it in the western Gulf before this disturbance, in whatever form it ends up being, moves inland somewhere between E/NE Mexico and SE Texas.


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