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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 133
Loc: East Central Florida 28.45N 81.06W
Texas Does not Need This
      #1058 - Mon Jul 08 2002 09:21 AM

First off, our two Atlantic systems didn't do anything. And the one near bermuda didn't spin up fast enough before it was absorbed by the larger low, so nothing with them.

Texas, however, has had some serious floodly lately, and the last thing they need is a tropical system.

Yet, the Central Western Gulf of Mexico has a broad area of low pressure that has the potential to form into a depression
As for the Bermuda System. The National Hurricane Center has been mentioningi it in the outlook. It's not all that well developed at present, so if it does form it'll take a day or two. Even if it does not, Texas will need to watch it because of even more rain possible from it.

What's my opinion on the chances of it forming?
code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------*--------------]



We'll be watching. Water temps are good enough to support something, it's being watched by the Navy, and the next day or two will tell this one's tale.

Elsewhere there are some clouds southeast of Florida, but nothing I see happening quite yet. It could change though, watch this one too.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]


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CaneMan
Unregistered




Re: Texas Does not Need This
      #1059 - Mon Jul 08 2002 09:29 AM

YOu said Bermuda system but I assume you're referring to the sytem bewtween Florida and Bahamas. Anybody have any pressure info. I tried to accesss buoys in that area but they are all outdated in that the last reports were from 10 or 11 last night.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Texas Does not Need This
      #1060 - Mon Jul 08 2002 10:57 AM

I would have to say that the low pressure area in the S/Central GOM is pretty much dead, unless it's reborn I think it will only be a rainmaker. Also noticed that the NHC has taken off the SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

The Florida/Cuba/Bahamas system definitely looks more healthy than the other one. Although there are not a lot of visibles to look at just yet, I think it will be interesting to see what they show later.



Colleen A.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Buoy Readings
      #1061 - Mon Jul 08 2002 11:32 AM

I checked the bouy readings near the Bahamas and S. Florida near the "system" or whatever it is and the pressures are still high (30.11 @ FWYF (Fowley Rocks, FL) and also at MLRF1 (Molasses Reef) is 30.09 and rising.

The winds are the strongest in those two areas: FWYF1 had winds of 16knts coming out of the ESE with gusts to 19knts. MLRF1 had winds out of the ESE at 19knts with gusts to 25knts. Water temps are 83 & 84F respectively.

That was at the 10:00am readings.


--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




gulf/florida
      #1062 - Mon Jul 08 2002 01:08 PM

gulf system, 95L, doesnt look much different. still no CDO, therefore no intensification. crappy convection equals crappy system when there isnt some baroclinic kick to compensate, law of the tropics. getting some easterly shear it looks like, nothing too serious. it got a d1.0 this morning at 1145z. lowest pressure reading in the area is only 1015mb, but away from the center. plane will get there this afternoon from keesler, tell us more. GFDL says south texas, bit initialized too far north. still most models take it closer to brownsville than i'm thinking.
the florida convection..not sure what triggered it. there isnt any kind of surface feature associated with it. some models were saying a disturbance would form in the eastern gulf mid week, so i doubt this is related. watch the area in days to come, though. rummaging through models.. i noticed it, dunham noticed it, bastardi even mentioned it in his post today. the seniority backup makes it stand out more in my mind. a major amplification in the east later in the week should slow the westerly progress of anything in the gulf down to a crawl.
pretty good easterly pulse coming into the islands today, ITCZ has some turning in it around 50w. first signs of life ive seen in the deep tropics. of course that threat area is still dormant. upper westerlies and subsidence, front flank of the TUTT, dominate the caribbean.
HanKFranK aiken, SC 1644z08july


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
The end may be near for 95L.
      #1063 - Mon Jul 08 2002 02:45 PM

Just as curiousity kills the cat, convection (or lack of) kills the prospect. Ever since last evening this system has been going downhill with all of it's convection nearly dissipating overnight. It has some back today, but it also looks more elongated. Didn't think I'd have to say this...it's dead and my forecast was way off of the mark.

There is an interesting "blob" off of southeast Florida today that has gained some attention. It looks pretty decent on satellite imagery (actually, I'll say it looks better than 95L despite it having no circulation) but I'm staying conservative with this one. It must first get some type of LLC, which may not occur until it is in the Gulf, if at all. NHC hasn't mentioned this system yet, and I don't believe they will until it is in the Gulf and until it shows persistence. If it does develop a circulation, it could develop. In any event, 95L is probably a good warm-up for the hurricane hunters. I'll stay conservative with development chances, 3-5% and only in the GOMEX. But with steering currents as weak as they are, they could give this system a chance to sit and brew. Who knows what could happen then.

ITCZ: The western area of it has been very active lately. It needs to come more north, and the upper-level conditions need to become more favorable for one of these waves to develop. However, since the waves seem to flaring up further west, my ideas of developments closer to the islands this year may be in line. We'll see.

I had to ask...


Which system will develop?
You may choose only one
Western GOMEX system
Southeast Florida system
None of these will develop.


Votes accepted from (Sun Jun 06 2004 12:38 PM) to (No end specified)
View the results of this poll



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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: The end may be near for 95L.
      #1064 - Mon Jul 08 2002 03:39 PM

Dont be too hasty to write off 95L... this system still has potential, and although is not looking to impressive on satellite imagery, it has improved in signature over the past hour or two. Recon are currently in the disturbance with the latest Recon Obs showing winds of 23 knots... It was also assigned numbers of 1.0 / 1.0 at about 1715UTC too.

will be interesting to see what recon has to say on it!

Rich B

StormWarn2000 IWN

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Florida System & 95L
      #1065 - Mon Jul 08 2002 03:47 PM

Well, I think they are playing, "Tag! you're it!" "WRONG! Tag! you're it!" with us right now. The one in the Gulf looks a little better, but the one near FL doesn't look very good at all.

Of course as soon as I post this, things will change. ;-)

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Colleen, my assessment of what really is happening
      #1066 - Mon Jul 08 2002 05:19 PM

Since June and July are basically the spring training months for hurricanes its only apropos that we get these silly little systems early in the season that really struggle to get their act together.... What we have here are some minor league systems not ready for prime time.... as have all of the systems been to date...

During baseball spring training, the players work constantly on certain skills and perform numerous repetitions and fundamental drills so when the real season comes around they are prepared for every challenge...

Hurricanes are no different... during the hurricane pre-season these wanna-be systems are honing their skills in preparation for the official regular season. They are working diligently on strengthening their CDOs, constantly conditioning their low and mid level circulations to be able to with stand the fatigue and pounding of the dreaded upper level shear, performing numerous reps and cycles developing deep convection, then only to lose it as fast as they developed... after a couple of months of intense practice they master the necessary skills.... and waa-la... we then get very mature and developed hurricanes in mid Aug and the remainder of the season.... primarily because of all the hard work they are doing now in preparing for the regular season....

yes sir its still the pre-season.... regular season starts in about a month or so... hehe


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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




when to write off
      #1067 - Mon Jul 08 2002 06:07 PM

from kevin's poll it's clear that not many people have faith in 95L. just a little refresher on systems over near texas. quite often they will rapidly intensify right before going in, and continue to improve in organization after landfall. considering that this system has a good 15 to 18 hours left over the water, i'm not about to toss it from consideration. the only thing i have to change is where it comes ashore. looks like brownsville area after all. and yes, i'm still betting against my late july guess for a first named storm.
convection around florida has nothing to do with surface weather, save maybe a seabreeze front. a potential trigger wave is coming in from the east in a couple of days, to toy with whatever is still there. should note that model support that was present yesterday is hard to come by today.
HanKFranK aiken sc 2153z08july


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Jason Moreland
Unregistered




Tropical Weather Watchers Forecast Center
      #1068 - Mon Jul 08 2002 07:01 PM

Tropical Weather Watchers is doing discussions roughly every five hours on the low pressure system in the Gulf. On quiet days, the TWO is uodated only once or twice a day. You can visit the home page at:
http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com

Forecast Center:
http://www.geocities.com/forecastteam

BTW, I also have a link to FLHurricane on my links page. :-)


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: when to write off
      #1069 - Mon Jul 08 2002 07:11 PM

KEEP AN EYE ON THE ACTIVITY AROUND FLORIDA. I KNOW THERE IS NOT A CIRCULATION OR ANYTHING YET BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME NICE OUTFLOW COMING FROM SOMEWHERE IN THAT AREA. I THINK IT LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WESTERN GULF SYSTEM RIGHT NOW. I'M WAITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS IT MOVES OUT OVER OPEN WATER. THIS ONE MAY BE THE ONE TO GET THINGS GOING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STEERING FLOW IS SO WEAK RIGHT NOW. I COULD BE WRONG, BUT IT WOULDN'T BE THE FIRST TIME.

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Florida convection and more.
      #1070 - Mon Jul 08 2002 07:25 PM

Shawn: I'm just as anxious as you are to see what happens to the convection when it gets out over the Gulf of Mexico sometime tommorrow. Even though it's an upper-level feature, with the weak steering currents it may get the time it needs to brew. I don't think this one will go totally unnoticed. I'm still saying no development until at least Thursday, if at all.

95L: The structure has actually improved over the last few hours on satellite. More convection has also developed around the LLC, which btw is not closed off. I'll wait untill sometime tommorrow to make a call on this system. If it improves overnight, I'll bump my 30% for development back up to 50%, at least. Time will tell.
Kevin


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Matthew
Unregistered




a go at a forecast!!!
      #1071 - Mon Jul 08 2002 07:33 PM

Ok this is a forecast, the low and the gulf of mexico looks like it reforming to the east and there more thunderstorms. So there still a chance for it to get going so 20 percent on this to get going. The one and the eastern gulf looks like it will take time to get going models like it so thats a watcher about middle week. Back to the western guf system might bring some rain to texas. Might not help floods. Middle Atlantic wave was looking good early now no might bring some showers to the island, some to tueday. Was not looking and the northwest atlantic so might look at it soon. As for the Eastern Pacific a low might be forming could become a t.d and a few days, models keep showing it so I think it will have a chance. As for the western pacific three tropical systems one strong on and two tropical storms. The strong one looks to hit Japan. So watch the two other tropical storms. That was my try at a forecast tell me if my spelling is wrong.Matthew

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: a go at a forecast!!!
      #1072 - Mon Jul 08 2002 08:01 PM

Here's my take:

The W GOM low may close off tomorrow, but I doubt it makes TS strength. They may classify it as a TD, but I wouldn't bet on that now unless you gave me some pretty good odds.

As to the FL rainfall, it looks to me like there is a general broad circulation across the whole eastern and central Gulf. We had off and on showers throughout the day. I don't think any of 'em brought more than .1", but we probably got a 1/4" total in maybe 4 rain showers. There was more rain south and west of the city.

The Florida rain looks like a combination of general low pressure (as noted above) and a tropical wave. If you watch the IR or WV, you can kind of see a line moving W-WNW. Bob Breck noted that 'one of the cpu models' is closing off a low south of around Panama City which looks to be on Tues or Wed. The way things stand now is that there is a strong ridge over OK/AR which is probably going to move NE over time. This should continue the weak steering currents over lower lattitudes unless a big push comes in from the East. An upper level trof should be moving SE into NC Florida sometime near the weekend, so that might be a player eventualy if something does close off.

So here's a non-poll question for everyone: based on all the disturbed weather that hasn't actually formed so far this year, do you still feel strongly about your forecasted landfall areas and do you think the areas where the distubed weather has been portends anything for later on in the season? To me, everything is panning out as scheduled if June and July have been more-or-less dry runs. There has been abundant moisture around Florida, around the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico in general and off the SE coasts of SC and NC.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: a go at a forecast!!!
      #1073 - Mon Jul 08 2002 08:04 PM

CONGRATS MATHEW!! Your forecast looks great and so does your spelling! Keep up the good work!

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2263
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Low Level Circulation
      #1074 - Mon Jul 08 2002 08:09 PM

Use the following link and set it up for animation, 100%, about 9 frames, and select a point just west of West Palm Beach. Its been there for hours!
NASA MSFC
Cheers,
ED


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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
Re: Low Level Circulation
      #1075 - Mon Jul 08 2002 08:14 PM

Look's promising Ed !!

--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: Low Level Circulation
      #1076 - Mon Jul 08 2002 08:34 PM

Are you kidding me? Are there actually some people that might see things as I do? I have a strong gut feeling that we may have some serious action to watch for starting, NOW!!!! I know I'm making a big deal about something that hasn't happened or may not happen but I get this way with gut feelings. This one is something for the WHOLE gulf coast to watch because of the steering currents being so weak. Alright, place your bets! If it develops, where will it go?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2263
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Low Level Circulation
      #1077 - Mon Jul 08 2002 08:55 PM

Actually, I should probably explain what I think this is (was). Last night NWS Melbourne in their forecast discussion mentioned that the southern half of the Florida peninsula would experience quite a few showers associated with a westward moving tropical wave moving in from the Bahamas (which is the focal point for the low pressure system that some of the models were developing off the southwest Florida coast). This morning some squally weather came ashore in south Florida and Melbourne noted the following in their discussion: "MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH FL PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SQUALL LINE THAT CONTINUES TO PROPOGATE NORTH ACROSS LAKE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH
OCCURRED WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVED THROUGH PALM BAY...VERO BEACH
AND FORT PIERCE THIS MORNING." This afternoon the heavy convection over the peninsula suddenly went poof!! Now I asked myself why that should happen during the heat of the day over Florida in July? Here is the answer (I think): Embedded within the heavy convection was a small circulation center at the surface (TD?) and this is what caused the squally weather when it came ashore. When the center got over land, the clouds rapidly dissipated but now you could see the low level circulation. If this thing drifts back offshore (or crosses the state intact)...???
Cheers,
ED


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