MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Friday PM update
Recon is in the storm now. One message reported 156kt flight level winds,.
Also wind gusts are reported to be in the 195-200MPH range.
Friday AM update
Morning Isabel is still a cat 5, but forecast to weaken a bit after 48 hours or so. (but still remain a major cane)
Still no definite path for next week. Keep looking.
Original Updates
Isabel has hit Cat 5, with 160MPH winds and an estimated pressure of 921mb, it is one of the strongest hurricanes I've ever seen in that part of the Atlantic.
And yet, it still has a week to go before coming close to the US.
I don't expect it to maintain that strength for too long... too many things have to be just right for that.
The future is still uncertain, although the more northerly track, at the moment, is the best guess for me...
I am probably wrong... This could change, everyone along the East Coast needs to maintain vigil on Isabel.
If you have a broadband connection you have to check out this new satellite image link (super rapid scan images) of Isabel here . Thanks to Jason Kelly for bringing it to our attention.
8pm Addition: Trying to find some remarkable insight and words of wisdom - can't find any, so I thought that I'd share with you a PM that I sent to Mike this evening - sometimes its better to put the science aside and just pause and marvel for awhile:
Mike:
Bobbi and others are right - if you really have this stuff in your blood, the sight of a super hurricane just puts you in awe. What a monster! It seems like I've been doing this forever and yet the beauty and majesty of one of these things never stops amazing me. The board is busy with lots of visitors, yet relatively quiet - nobody knows quite what to say - nobody wants to break the spell.
Rather than post a new article tonight,I think that I'll just add some of this to it - be a little different for a change. Besides, when I put my entry into HankFranks challenge they'll all know what I'm thinking. Man, I really wish that I knew where this one was going but the truth is - I'm still very uncertain.
Part of me says that the storm will slooooly move around the ridge and follow the ULL - a natural weakness. Part of me says that the long range projections of the models are really out to lunch - from northern Cuba yesterday evening to NYC 12 hours later - now thats quite a variance! Depends on the ridge and what it ultimately does or does not do - and nobody knows that right now. It is slowly creeping north of due west which is certainly better than due west or south of due west - but that's about the only safe conclusion to draw at this time.
By the way, the gang has been great - absolutely great! They know whats out there - a bundle of remarkable current beauty - and potential future misery. Like RAD once said: "Man, I love this stuff"!
Cheers,
ED
Think I'm wrong? See something I'm missing? You are probably right. Add a comment and we'll discuss.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Current Aircraft Recon Info
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
Edited by MikeC (Sat Sep 13 2003 09:45 AM)
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joepub1a
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
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Isa is about as close to a perfect hurricane as I ever care to see. This is one of the few I wouldn't hang around for....
Joe in JAX
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 420
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
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I feel many things will happen between today and Sunday; that will be the day to have a serious action plan if you live anywhere in the SE. 
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________2013 Forecast: 16/8/4________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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There is little to say about Isabel except for:
AWESOME 
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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This morning I thought that Florida was getting out of the woods. Now I'm thinking we're in the thick of it again. I'm trying to calculate movement and timing. I approximate each degree of longitude to be about 59.9 miles at 28N latitude. ACcording to the forecast, it has Isabel at 26N/71.5 W at 120 hours. I don't see how that's possible at its present movement. Is my approximation off. I'm using the circumference of the earth at 28N. Ed D, gang, any thoughts on this. Do the speed her up from 9 mph at all during the period?? Thanks..
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Listening to people here talking about "where they would go" and smiled up at one and said you realize that everyone from Key West to Cape Hatteras is right this moment having this very same discussion... because no one is sure.
Notice there is more and more credibility being given to the UKMet ... interesting..
Anyway... think ULL may not be the big indicator much longer and my question is this..
How well do most models really do with a Cat 5 because... there are less examples and less commonalities I would think over history and therefore wondering how much models can be relied on in what seems to be a hard scenario to evaulate.
Bobbi... sort of humbled
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Bobbi, I just said those exact words to someone at work! How do they know how to predict something that comes along every few years?
PS- Where's Rick from Mobile? This is his big chance!
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hypercane
Unregistered
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It has a buzz-sawish Andrew look at this point. It doesn't have quite the enormous Cat. 5 appearance of a Gilbert or Mitch, but a 5 is a 5 - I'll appreciate them, no matter the satellite signature.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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I can only think back to Gilbert when I look at the awesome sight that is Isabel. She looks wonderful, even better if she will spin off to the fish.
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Jara
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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I agree with you on it not maintaining Cat 5 for long. I still see (and hope) we see a northward motion begin in the next 24hrs.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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Bobbi: Excellent question! I don't have an answer for you, but I'd be very interested to hear the thoughts of our resident experts.
Also, didn't someone mention not too long ago that Cat 5's can create their own steering currents (or something to that effect)? How does that factor into the analysis, if at all?
Allison
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Allison
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met
Unregistered
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north, what is going to move this monster north. everything is way north of it , weak , and really nothing there. this is moving west for quite a while. se bahamas in danger down the road.
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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Well i have a few ?'s for everyone. The forcast was for it to not strengthen this much today so are the models taking in the account that the storm is so strong. I have heard that storms this big actually make the weather around them, so what is to say that it wont just keep moving west? It has all day and it was projected to move some to the northwest today and hasnt. I dont know if any of this is factual, but just stuff i picked up, can someone shed some light? I am still new here and I have no clue sometimes...
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
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A CAT5 hurricane can create it's own sterring currents, the problem is that they are impossible to predict. If someone tries to tell you they know what's going on with this storm, they are either guessing or they are flat out wrong. The models are useless at this point, they are all over the place. It's simply something we have to watch and wait for.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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I think all of you are somewhat right. The truth is the models never predicted a Cat 5. The strength is a big factor. Unless the models use this factor it could conceivably just keep heading west. True she makes her own enviroment and until a recon gets in nobody knows. Just like 5pm discussion said.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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It seemed to me all day that Isabel has been gaining lattitude slowly. For my money, current motion is somewhat between WNW and just North of due West.
Also, go to Goes and click on the last visible image you can get of that eye. Amazing what the shadows will do.
I doubt Isabel can maintain this type of strength (as noted earlier today), but she's been strong for several days already so you never know.
For anyone who thought the Wind Speed Probability chart was insane yesterday, you NEVER see this:
Wind Speed Probability Chart
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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NLU: That's a frightening thought... really frightening. It's one thing to not be able to predict where a storm will be beyond 3-5 days... it's quite another to say that such a monster is impossible to predict at all.... Very scary.
Allison
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Allison
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Possibly true met, possibly true. Don't think I mean due north, but a slight turn over time. Just have to wait and see 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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met
Unregistered
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it is also slowing down, and trof is very far north and when it gets there dont think it will have much pull . because hurricane will not be in same area it would have had it still been moving at a faster forward speed.
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Jamie
Unregistered
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The first reconnaissance mission into Isabel is scheduled for tomorrow. Hopefully we can gain some useful information from this.
Also i am reading that Synoptic Surveillance Missions by high altitude jets will also begin tomorrow, maybe this will enable the models to get a better handle on the system.
Just a thought
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