MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
|
|
Isabel is still strong, models are still divergent, but we now have recon, so they may start to get better tomorrow.
The storm probably will fluctuate in intensity some and over the next day or two weaken a bit, depending on how far west it goes and if the ridge rebuilds far enough, it could restrengthen (probably not to cat 5 level, but still major) . Right now Isabel is just an awesome sight on the satellite photography.
My thnking of a more northernly motion later in the period still remains, but all the east coast From Florida to the northeast US needs to watch it. UKMET suggest near the Caroinas, and right now that's what I"m tending toward. This may include the Virginia Tidewater area too. This probably will change, we can't make up our minds for anything. Just keep watch.
And the plane is still in the cane. Recon will be observing this storm like crazy, not too often does a cat5 get in range of recon.
More will come as learned...
Think I'm wrong? See something I'm missing? You are probably right. Add a comment and we'll discuss.
Snonut has a Discussion out for today you may want to read
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Current Aircraft Recon Info
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
Edited by MikeC (Sat Sep 13 2003 09:44 AM)
|
Bill
Unregistered
|
|
Advisory is out---nothing new so far, continuation of same for now, maybe a slight shift to the right----3-5 days, no sig change. Great verification of satellite analysis!
IHS,
Bill
|
jjmann
Unregistered
|
|
WXMAN007 thank you for clearing that up about the ukmet/gragh at WREL , now we all will no not to judge that as the official UKMET MODEL ,is the AKA/ bracknell a worthy model?
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
|
|
I'm not sure what they are posting there, so it might very well be the UKMET model output...that was just a hunch on my part.
The UKMET guys are pretty good, but aren't as experienced as ...I rarely ever look at the Bracknell product, but if you would like to...
Here is the last issued Bracknell guidance product, as an example.
743
WTNT80 EGRR 121754
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.09.2003
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 12.3N 109.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2003 12.3N 109.8W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2003 12.4N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2003 13.1N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2003 17.7N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2003 18.2N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2003 18.9N 114.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2003 20.2N 115.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2003 22.2N 116.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2003 23.6N 117.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2003 22.8N 118.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2003 22.3N 119.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2003 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
HURRICANE ISABEL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 57.4W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132003
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2003 21.8N 57.4W INTENSE
00UTC 13.09.2003 22.0N 59.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2003 22.8N 61.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2003 23.6N 63.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2003 24.0N 65.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2003 24.6N 67.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2003 24.7N 68.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2003 25.4N 70.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2003 25.4N 71.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2003 26.2N 73.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2003 27.2N 74.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2003 29.0N 75.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2003 31.6N 77.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 29.8N 46.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2003 29.8N 46.8W WEAK
12UTC 15.09.2003 29.4N 47.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2003 28.9N 48.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2003 29.7N 49.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2003 31.1N 50.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2003 30.5N 53.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2003 30.7N 55.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2003 31.2N 56.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
Also, the Ensemble runs don't paint a pretty picture for NYC...
GFS/ECMWF Ensemble forecast for Isabel...12z
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
|
|
Satellite Image of the night click here to see it
|
bob316
Unregistered
|
|
jason looks like fla will be ok i gess the high will not be that strong may be a fish what do you see jason thanks
|
jjmann
Unregistered
|
|
Awesome picture, thanks Mike C iam going to get that one blown up poster size!
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Hello to all. First time poster, LOOOOONG time reader. Been learning from you all since 1999; feel like I know some of you. Told myself I would only post if there were a storm near Long Island...been thru Gloria in '85 (power out for a week), near miss with Bob in '91 and Floyd '99, so I've not experienced any "big" ones (and hope I never do). I know NO ONE for sure knows where Isabel will go, but this one is beginning to scare me. SOMEONE is going to get hit, and probably pretty hard. When I saw a recent model, sohwing an 888 milibar storm on top of NYC (about 30 miles due west from me), well, it gave me pause. I'll post a link to it at another time, but a strong CAT 2 or weak CAT 3 would cause catastrophic (probably a bad choice of words) damage if it were to hit just west of NYC. Lower Manhattan would be completely under water, all the subways would be flooded, and being on LI myself, would mean evac would have to start days before...which couldn't happen because we wouldn't have two days to prepare.
OK, enough babbling. Hope no one gets hit. It's been a pleasure reading and learning from all you guys the past four years.
Oh, one more thing...when Floyd did come here (barely a TS by then), Jim Cantore was down at Point Lookout (right next to Jones Beach), and I got to meet him. That for me was bigger than meeting the president.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
Hi Phil,
Welcome to the board. I have been waiting for a fellow Long Islander to finally post at this board. I spent 30 years in Baldwin and was there for Belle, David, Frederic and Gloria. I had no power for 7 days from Gloria. What town are you in? We here in Florida are much better prepared for the big one than the people in the northeast. No one I knew had any kind of shutters. Hope it stays away from you guys too and hope your a Yankees fan! 
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
|
|
Welcome Phil,
Because of a few models and the possibility for effects up that way, I've put up forecast discussions for pretty much the entire East coast from New York to Key West on the main page.
|
Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
|
|
Major wobble to the North in the last frame, lets see if it continues. I'm sure glad Fla is out of the woods, to much of a cane for me to deal with.
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
|
|
florida isn't out of the woods. recent model runs may suggest that, but don't get too cozy until it passes your latitude.
|
Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
|
|
mines 28.3N 80.3W, just a wobble and back on a west track.
|
Steve H.
Unregistered
|
|
Too early to call this over in central florida. Don't turn off the radio this weekend!!!
|
Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
|
|
Also heard on the radio today, that the whole East Coast has a shortage of plywood. Prices could triple if she hits land.
|
Bill
Unregistered
|
|
Fl NOT out of the woods...no location is yet...stay tuned
I think everyone should remember---'originally', the storm was forecast to move wnw to nw for a while---we should not think when that happens we are 'out of the woods', because the other shoe could drop---at the end of that early forecast period, the high was supposed to build back in and turn Isabel back to the west.
This could still happen....beyond 120 hrs...or before...so, no one is out of the woods until it is past your latitude or has clearly turned away...neither of which has happened for anyone on the Fl east coast---or east coast, period, as of yet.
IHS,
Bill
|
Bill
Unregistered
|
|
LOL--HF, posted mine before I read yours.
IHS,
Bill
|
Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
|
|
Amen to that! I still expect a turn but I won't dismiss a FL strike yet. Waiting for the 00Z runs now.
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
|
BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
|
|
Bill - - how do you keep doing that?????
|
mp3reed
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Abilene, Texas USA 32.41N 99.77W
|
|
My guess is Hur5Isabella hits North Carolina. Cape Hatteras area. Hope ya'll have insurance.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
