Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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There does seem to be a weak circulation center (probably low level) at 10.3N 81.4W (12/21Z) associated with the convection north of Panama. Could be just a transient feature since banding is not present. Steering currents are nil in that area and center is just about stationary. If it develops further, upper clouds suggest a slow movement to the north. It has a long way to go, but its an area worth keeping an eye on.
Cheers,
ED
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Just read the accuwx tropical summary (issued at 5:10 pm). They are inclined to think this disturbance will head into the pacific. However, looking at the latest sat loops, I'm not so sure. Would it be possible for a piece to split off, one heading north and the other west? Or would the whole mess move as one? Because to my untrained eyes, it sure looks like it wants to come north.
Thanks,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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The big question about it is if it will cross into the EPAC or will stay in the caribbean however the low level flow is fairly strong and that might push it into the EPAC but let's see what happens.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Phil, in a way that will happen...sort of. A lot of that energy is probably upper level...where the steering flow is more SErly in the 200-700MB layer of the atmosphere due to a ridge weakness aloft. As a result, whatever is in the upper levels will be pulled NW, though with very minute chance of becoming anything special...strong shear that resides in the W Caribbean Sea will eat up anything that tries to dig to the surface. But whatever is at the low to mid levels will be carried W into the EPAC due to the more zonal flow closer to the surface. The global models have been indicating the development of another TC over the past few days in the EPAC, so this is probably what they are picking up on.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Rob,
Thx again for explaining it in "laymans" terms. I know the models are developing "celia" right behind "blas." This is the piece of energy from which they are seeing Celia? I thought that was from a more southern system already in the EPAC (off Alcapulco or a bit south of Alcapulco). I guess the northern component, which may reach the BOC, has no chance at development due to the unfavorable conditions you mentioned? Sorry to keep after this, just trying to learn/get a handle on some of the factors involved in tropical development.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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What the globals develop into a TC is from an area of low vorticity centered JUST off the W coast of Panama/Costa Rica...which is close enough to be associated with the area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean Sea. You can see it here on the 12Z AVN 950MB vorticity plot animation.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avnt...;hour=Animation
Now most of the energy with this disturbance is in the mid to lower levels...what you see streaming Nward is probably just a small fraction of it. When that upper level energy detatches to the N, it won't be sufficient enough to do anything...and really can't unless it interacts with an approaching TW. Even if that DOES happen, the persistent upper level shear as you said will keep any strong convection divergent-related. Therefore, no development.
Hope that helps. 
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Rob,
Yes, that DOES really help. Thanks again. Gonna shut it down for the evening, got a home run derby to watch. Some time I'll PM you to talk about meterology in general but I did want to thank you for posting here. BTW, after and accuwx pro, my third site every morning is IWIC. You and Jason should really post your tropical discussions here more. They are a tremendous help. Also, for example, the piece...I guess you saw I re-posted it on the main board (after Ed gave me the go-ahead). Great stuff.
Anyhoo...thanks again, and we'll be watching Blas & Celia tomorrow (methinks). No need to respond tonight, but Alex before 7/31...or after 8/15? Take a shot at that tomorrow (or whenever).
G'nite,
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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No problem Phil...thanks a lot for the kind comments.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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This topic seems to be getting a lot of play on the main board. Maybe Rob/Steve/HF or one of the mets can give a more "educated" opinion of this feature.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Weak circulation is still evident near 13.3N 82.2W at 14/03Z. System is still disorganized. Movement over the past 30 hours has been to the north northwest at 5 knots.
Cheers,
ED
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