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#Ernesto expected to be Post-Trop by tonight. #99L falling apart as it enters "the graveyard" of E Caribbean. Watching #Lane in E Pac.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 313 (Nate) , Major: 331 (Maria) Florida - Any: 341 (Irma) Major: 341 (Irma)
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Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Moving:
Ne at 25 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: TD #3 [Re: teal61]
      #18256 - Mon Aug 09 2004 01:58 PM

I don't know. They obviously had a good reason which will be made clear in the next advisory. Funny, this morning it didn't even get a mention in the TWO and now it's a classified system. Shows how these things can sneak up on you. I can see it becoming a tropical storm tonight or perhaps even at the next advisory (although that may be a stretch). We'll see.

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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: TD #3 [Re: teal61]
      #18257 - Mon Aug 09 2004 01:58 PM

Things seem to be picking up out by Eastern Islands:
Pressure is down and winds are up!

Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 KT) gusting to 29 MPH (25 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TVSV 091700Z 11016G25KT SHRA 8000 BKN008 SCT012CB OVC070 25/24 Q1014 CB E S OVHD

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 1 PM (17) Aug 09 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ESE 18 rain showers
Noon (16) Aug 09 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) E 18 light rain showers
11 AM (15) Aug 09 75 (24) 73 (23) 30.03 (1017)


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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
Re: two timing [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18258 - Mon Aug 09 2004 01:59 PM

some satellite comparisons:
Allen (scroll to page four)
Iris as TD

Isidore as TD

it should be noted that both Isidore and Iris became major hurricanes

--------------------
forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: TD #3 [Re: James88]
      #18259 - Mon Aug 09 2004 01:59 PM

"Since there is now a definite closed circulation at the surface...the system near the Windward Islands is being numbered at this time."

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: TD #3 [Re: James88]
      #18260 - Mon Aug 09 2004 01:59 PM

It gets brought up to hurricane strength in 72 hours, and is expected to track right into the GOM as a hurricane. UH-OH!
Looks like it could be a near miss for Jamaica.

Edited by James88 (Mon Aug 09 2004 02:01 PM)


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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
Re: TD #3 [Re: LI Phil]
      #18261 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:00 PM

NHC is very slow at updating their site, because the advisory is still not on there
nrl not updated either

--------------------
forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.50N 80.10E
Re: Clarification on recon please re: td2 bits and pieces [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18262 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:04 PM

Bobbi,
This is Plan for today, Plan for tomorrow is a plane to what is now TD3. I wonder if that will or has been changed
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.............ADDED
FLIGHT ONE.....ADDED FLIGHT TWO......ADDED
A. 09/1800Z A. 10/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0302A INVEST B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
C. 09/1530Z C. 10/0330Z
D. 23.0N 88.0W D. 24.0N 89.5W
E. 09/1700Z TO 09/2300Z E. 10/0430Z TO 10/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. SFC TO 10,000FT.


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: TD #3 [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #18263 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:07 PM

I would say between Barbados and St. Vincent is where the action is:
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 80 F (27 C)
Relative Humidity 100%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
ob TBPB 091700Z 12022KT 8000 -RA SCT008CB BKN010 BKN080 27/27 Q1015

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 1 PM (17) Aug 09 80 (27) 80 (27) 29.97 (1015) ESE 25 light rain
Noon (16) Aug 09 82 (28) 80 (27) 29.97 (1015) ESE 23 light rain showers
11 AM (15) Aug 09 80 (27) 80 (27) 30.00 (1016) ESE 26 rain showers
10 AM (14) Aug 09 78 (26) 78 (26) 30.00 (1016) E 31 heavy rain showers
9 AM (13) Aug 09 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.97 (1015) ENE 17 showers in the vicinity

Pressure falling and winds are up!, things seems to be kicken!


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bobbi
Unregistered




TD3 ...about time [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18264 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:08 PM

so now imagine we get a new thread or i get this deleted again too

was an on subject witty post, calm down

what obs ..or ship reports were used to upgrade, does anyone know


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: TD2? [Re: bobbi]
      #18265 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:17 PM

Old TD 2 looks like it is getting entrained to some degree in the circulation of the low of La....this may also affect the movement, but will likely slow development, for now.

sc


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Explain this one... [Re: Anonymous]
      #18266 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:24 PM

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/1740 UTC 22.9N 88.4W T2.0/2.0 02
09/1745 UTC 11.5N 60.8W T1.5/1.5 93

93 (which it is still listed as) has Dvorak's of 1.5 while 91L (02) is 2.0? Which one is the TD here?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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hardcore
Unregistered




Re: TD2? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18267 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:24 PM

2 Gulf Storms ?





http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 949
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: TD2? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18268 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:32 PM

Disagree on the "entraining" thing, but it is not showing any circulation features, so in my opinion it remains XTD2. It is elongated SW-NE because as the NHC stated earlier "upper winds are not as favorable" as before. If plane is out there, should hear definitively soon.

--------------------
doug


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: TD2? [Re: hardcore]
      #18269 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:34 PM

Bobbi, you get your answer from the Discussion:

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS
EARLIER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLANDS OF TRINIDAD AND
MARGARITA SHOW WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE IS NOW A DEFINITE CLOSED CIRCULATION
AT THE SURFACE...THE SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS BEING
NUMBERED AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY
WELL-ORGANZIED SYSTEM WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

Steve

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 09 2004 08:08 PM)


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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
Re: TD2? [Re: Steve]
      #18270 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:44 PM

Cancun radar

--------------------
forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18272 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:48 PM

MIKE JUST PUT UP A NEW THREAD, SO ALL SHOULD GO OVER THERE...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: TD2? [Re: Steve]
      #18276 - Mon Aug 09 2004 02:54 PM

TD 3 as everyone knows has formed today and is the major feature of the moment. TD3 actually has a LLC for the last 2 days but was part of the ITCZ and didnt have the TS around or near the center. Finally today after the system got better organized and land obs this was upgraded. Pressure is still high but will slowly fall as it has very good enviroment around it. The pressures are generally high for this time of year in the eastern carribean sea. I expect the system to become better organized slowly and become a T.S in next day or so. When the system gets w of 70W i expect it to begin a more generaly strengthning faze as it will slow down some and surrounding pressures will be slightly lower then the 1014-15 in the islands (outside of TD3). I expect this to become a hurricane after it passes Jamaica on Thursday. Probably the evening. Another trough will be pushing into the eastern U.S. after 96hours from now. How far down it digs and the placement of where the current TD3 will be will determine the weekend movement of the hurricane. Best scenerio right now is it to move into the se Gulf and up florida or across. Some think it might stay alittle more s and move into the Yucitan chaneel drift and move w towards Texas or Mexico when the trough moves out later Monday into Tuesday. Looks like Friday and Saturday we will have a idea. System should gradually get stronger till the weekend.
System in the Southern gulf is a tight compact system. Had great radar from Mexico last night into today. The system could be classified when recon checks this out today and might find TS winds. Pressures are high though and this should get absorbed into the eastern U.S trough and move NE across Fl Panhandle or Big Bend area. I dont expect this to be a strong Tropical Storm if it even gets classified at all.

scottsvb


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