Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 134 (Nate) , Major: 152 (Maria) Florida - Any: 162 (Irma) Major: 162 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | (show all)
meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Officially a CAT IV [Re: Robert]
      #21193 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:35 PM

this hurricane may create its own enviroment. ive heard this will be a strong ridge. and extend into the souththeast. maybe a degree or 2 north but not much. it could turn north and split middle of fla. wonder what 1935 would have looked like on satt.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term [Re: Frank P]
      #21194 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:37 PM

Quote:

NO area forecast this afternoon.....hmmmm

THE TRACK OF THE VERY STRONG HURRICANE Frances WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AFTER DAY 7...NEXT SATURDAY.

Well Sir Frances has gotten their attention ..... as I'm sure its going to get quite a few of the different area's long term forecast's attention..... you can't rule out the GOM at this time... maybe later in the week, but right now you can't rule out anything...


True enough. The NHC just sent this exerpt: THE NHC RUNNING TRACK ERRORS THROUGH 28/18Z ARE
44...71...AND 104 NMI AT 24-...48-...AND 72-HR...RESPECTIVELY.
THESE ERRORS ARE HALF OUR AVERAGE ERRORS...AND ARE BETTER THAN ALL
OF THE COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THEREFORE
...WE HAVE A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST TRACK...WHICH
REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UKMET MODEL TO
THE NORTH.

which to me says they are now pretty sure of themselves and apparantly taking the GFS pretty seriously as a solution. Maybe it is time I start to 'buy-in' to that myself. I'll admit, I thought the Floyd scenereo was most likely, but I'm now less sure of that....'bout to be convinced otherwised.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Officially a CAT IV [Re: Ricreig]
      #21195 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:40 PM

They should give a name to these storms such, like supertyphoons in the western pacific but more like super cyclones. This storm has un-limted potenial right now and is preforming exterme cyclongensis, very interesting. This system could easily break through any ridge, expect the semi-permanent.

It's got a name-Frances. I'm not so sure that the 'retirement' thing wasn't a hoax, as I've not been able to find any backup--James88 is always by the book, so if he posted it, I'll take it as gospel for now. However, we may be retiring Frances for other reasons than the French Government's request.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by LI Phil (Sat Aug 28 2004 07:48 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: HOLY 5H!+! [Re: LI Phil]
      #21196 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:41 PM

Quote:

While it's only a theory, with some plausible basis in fact, when these storms get this strong, they create their own weather.



Rick....me thinks we've had this discussion before...remember Charley and the old wives tale thread....I'm still on the old wives tale side of that belief but darned if I can figure *what* path Frances will want to create for itself

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term [Re: Ricreig]
      #21197 - Sat Aug 28 2004 05:51 PM

floyd was pulled north by a trof.looked at extended outlook for usa. and it shows dry par tly cloudy for north usa. and isolated showers in se. there arnt any trofs. or cold fronts coming down late next week. this looks to be close to Andrew and 1935 hurricane paths when they were going thru the bahamas.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Maitland, FL
Unregistered




Re: Frances is a Monster [Re: meto]
      #21199 - Sat Aug 28 2004 06:06 PM

This monster looks perfect on the satillite imagery, its beautiful infact. It's amazing that you love seeing a hurricane form, but you switch over to hating it as soon as it heads your way. I hope it doesn't hit in the middle of Florida, not sure if my house will be here anymore. A Cat. V is a unimaginable thing unless you've been in one, which I haven't. Hopefully I won't have to have my experience next weekend.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Frances is a Monster [Re: Maitland, FL]
      #21200 - Sat Aug 28 2004 06:13 PM

Quote:

This monster looks perfect on the satillite imagery, its beautiful infact. It's amazing that you love seeing a hurricane form, but you switch over to hating it as soon as it heads your way. I hope it doesn't hit in the middle of Florida, not sure if my house will be here anymore. A Cat. V is a unimaginable thing unless you've been in one, which I haven't. Hopefully I won't have to have my experience next weekend.


I have: Camille. BIloxi and Gulfport Ms were changed forever. It is starting to look like the closer you live to Miami, the worse your chances may be for escaping Frances. It is *way* too early to predict landfall to be sure, but at the moment I'm not seeing any reason to doubt the NHC's path and by extrapolation of the NRL chart showing the forecast wind coverage, S Florida will take the brunt but T.S. winds could include as far north as Orlando. Way too early to worry, but plenty of good reason to restock the batteries and other hurricane essentials.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
The Sun Sets on Frances [Re: meto]
      #21201 - Sat Aug 28 2004 06:14 PM

As the sun is setting we will catch the last glimspe of Frances on visble imagery. This storm has grew a huge amount, and will continue to grow. In regard to the forecast, I don't think meterologists (mid-latitude) can predict if any cold fronts will be coming down to the se in 7 days, or later so we don't know if it will be a Floyd situation or not. This is a storm of a decade, or maybe a past storm of a century, the future may hold more new storms of this mangitude so be prepared.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: The Sun Sets on Frances [Re: Keith234]
      #21202 - Sat Aug 28 2004 06:36 PM

Looking for cold fronts is easy! Go to one of your northern maps of Canada, or the Pacific coming from Alaska. Any fronts that might be available will be coming from there. I am going to go with NOGAPS. At about 60-65W and approximately 20-22N, there is a swirl of an upper level low. Its located between the new invest and Frances. I think that No Gaps is thinking that this will nudge the cane towards the right, I am going with that notion while I go to the store tomorrow to restock my hurricane supplies. Fortunately I did not need a battery or an extra container of water, but this time, I am not seriously considering no impact if The hurricane were to come inland at Ft Lauderdale, or Vero Beacn, We saw what it did to the opposite side of the state when Charley came in,.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: The Sun Sets on Frances [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #21203 - Sat Aug 28 2004 06:47 PM

Interesting day in the tropics. Frances turned IV, Gaston got named and is probably headed for hurricane status tomorrow daytime, and 98L (or whatever it is now) look to be on the way. I wish I could cut and paste all the chaos Bastardi's got up toady. He's touched on everything from a triple pin-wheel solution to a westerly trend in the models to Frances missing the US to the east. There are a lot of options. Great stuff and well worth a 30 day free trial even if you don't renew.

I'm still thinking South Carolina with Gaston (pretty evident). I originally had it going in as a potentially strong tropical storm. Though it could approach hurricane status, my hunch is that it gets up between 55-70mph before landfall. It's also doing a good job of chilling the waters off the Carolinas' coasts which could be key in the future should Frances follow my idea and head for southern North Carolina. TD #8/98L or whatever it is is probably coming west with the ridge but at a farther north lattitude. I can't say if it will make landfall, play fujiwara or become absorbed into a frontal trof and become extratropical. Interesting week ahead. I predict lots of people find ways to steer the storm in their own direction.

Welcome back Robert. And rickonboat, I like your solution as usual. One of these days.../pinkfloyd

TPS

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Gaston and Frances [Re: Steve]
      #21204 - Sat Aug 28 2004 07:08 PM

A few days ago I was sitting in my office, checking the long range radar and noticed a nice little low sitting off of the coast of South Carolina. Also, all of this talk about Frances growing toward hurricane strength rather rapidly. Now, I am sitting in Charleston watching Gaston grow toward hurricane strength and Frances grow toward a CatV. Watching the sun set on Frances was rather ominous as I began to wonder what tomorrow may hold. It will certainly be windy and rainy here. Hopefully, we will escape without to many problems. I also hope that Gaston can upwell enough cold water so that Frances can not do what Hugo did 15 years ago (suddenly boom just before hitting south carolina). Enough cold water on the surface could be the difference between a CatIV or V hitting the coast and Cat II or III hitting. From a pure storm perspective, Frances is a good looking storm. However, I am praying for anyone that may be in her path (including my own family and my sister in Florida).

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Recon on Gaston [Re: MikeC]
      #21205 - Sat Aug 28 2004 07:10 PM

Last two recon vortex fixes have reported eyes with Gaston, first an open circular eyewall of 40 nmi., now a closed (with few breaks) elliptical eyewall of 38 - 45 nmi. in width along its axes. Estimated extrapolated pressure is down to 994mb, and the eye is beginning to appear on the infrared and visible satellite imagery. A nearby buoy on the west side of the storm reported a 1000mb pressure a couple of hours ago. The storm, sitting over the Gulf Stream, is certainly intensifying, even if it doesn't have a classic look to it on satellite. Max flight-level wind of 60kt was found on the SW side, kind of surprising since that is the weakest side of the storm, but things have probably changed on the E side since recon was in there 2-4 hrs. ago. See no reason to shift the landfall pattern with the storm pretty much on track.

Frances - don't think I need to rehash anything everyone else has said. The next two days will tell us a lot.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Maitland
Unregistered




Re: Frances Models [Re: Clark]
      #21206 - Sat Aug 28 2004 07:18 PM

Looks like some of the models are taking Frances a little nudge to the north. A little nudge here might be a great distance by the time it gets closer.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Recon on Gaston [Re: Clark]
      #21207 - Sat Aug 28 2004 07:23 PM

I have to wonder what kind of influence the fast westward moving tropical disturbance south of Bermuda will have on Gaston? Appears to be DUI of Gaston more and more. Could make for a flooding heavy rain event over the Carolinas.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Recon on Gaston [Re: Clark]
      #21208 - Sat Aug 28 2004 07:24 PM

It does seem that Gaston will reach Cat 1 at least in the short term.... as for Frances I can't add anything that has not already been said except my concerns grow for south FL as time goes on. If "wishcasting" worked I would see some spun fish on this one but it seems this may be close... still time to prepare and for things to change.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Getting Ready for Frances [Re: Maitland]
      #21209 - Sat Aug 28 2004 07:33 PM

There is no time like the present for everyone along the east coast, especially in Florida, to get their preparedness plan ready. I plan on doing all my shopping and preparations for the possibility of this storm tomorrow. We all know it is much harder during the work week to do this. After seeing Charley, I think this storm will cause a huge panic on the entire east coast of Florida come early and mid week. Hopefully, she will turn out to sea and not bother anyone. Our local West Palm Beach tv station showed 2 possibilities. One , she heads west across South Florida because of the high pressure and two she follows a weakness left by Gaston up off the east coast of Florida.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Getting Ready for Frances [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #21210 - Sat Aug 28 2004 07:41 PM

Maybe we can call on the "god" of opposites. IF we all go out and spend too much money on hurricane supplies, get whipped up into sheer panic state, begin evacuations today, and clear out all the gasoline, candles, ice and outdoor cooking equipment, tents, tarps and what have you say, by Tuesday, then and maybe only then Frances will catch a clump of dry air and deflate like a balloon. Just hoping!

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: Getting Ready for Frances [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #21214 - Sat Aug 28 2004 08:21 PM

Having just been through Hurricane Charley <one of the million or so, caught off guard, in the Orlando area>, we have NO desire to go through Hurricane Frances unprepared. Even though Hurricane Frances is at least a week away from any type of landfall in the CONUS, we will be prepared by tomorrow for her arrival...wherever that may be...still a long way off but, not looking good for Florida...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD [Re: k___g]
      #21215 - Sat Aug 28 2004 08:24 PM

Mike has put up a new thread...all new responses should be directed there.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 51 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: ****
Topic views: 23814

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center