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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4118
Loc: Orlando, FL
Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica
      #25311 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:15 AM

Overnight Ivan deepened at one point, possibly briefly to Camille levels, but then lstarted an eyewall replacement cycle and weakened a bit.

That's not the real news, however, that is although Jamaica still received very heavy rains and wind, and likely lots of problems, the eye of the Hurricane remained to the south of the island. Hurricane Ivan 's currently just southwest of the Island. Which is great news.

Although the storm was forecast to clip the western edge of Jamaica, the overnight "wobble" to the west will keep it from doing so. It's still not clear Jamaica now, so currently their winds are getting high, but Jamaica was spared the extreme worst part of the storm.

This leftward motion has increased the chance for a panhandle strike later on, but the cone of error is still extremely large. It's interesting to note that forecasts have been overdoing the motion to the right. It will be interesting watching the trends as it heads closer to Cuba.



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Event RelatedLinks
Jamaican Radar (long and short range)
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Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
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Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
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Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica [Re: MikeC]
      #25314 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:21 AM

Ivan is really slowing and that's causing a lot of cloud mass to start being expelled. Hard to say, but I'm betting on a continued WNW track for this morning.

Dr. Steve Lyons suggested that this period of WNW movement could be critical in terms of how far Westward the track ends up. Seems the mets are thinking a pretty straight shot North once Ivan gets clear of Cuba.

Nice early morning shot at http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
Click on: GOES-EAST Visable - Storm Relative - Latest Image

Cloud tops look surprisingly flat and even. I would hazard a guess that means Ivan is still pretty strong. Winding down from last night.

Edited by rule (Sat Sep 11 2004 08:30 AM)


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Hurricaned
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Hurricane winds in Orlando? [Re: MikeC]
      #25317 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:26 AM

What are the chances of getting hurricane winds in Orlando? Opinions?

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica [Re: rule]
      #25318 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:31 AM

Well not to my surprise the GFS now is wayyy left even more with the 06Z run then even the 0z run when that was left. This continues then Shawn will have his hurricane in Houston after 3 more runs. LOL. Models are performing horrible with the track except the CMC amazingly enough. This has been the only persistant model and generally the worst of the global models. I will wait to see the 12Z runs and more data on the faster then forcasted movement up to upper trough south of Bermuda as this is pushing the ridge in the bahamas more w info florida causing models to react and move this towards the Panhandle and who knows maybe Houston (jokingly) by the time it makes landfall. Right now it looks like right now the se coast of florida might actually not even get any rain and infact be fair with some high clouds instead of the forcasted2-5 inches of rain and TS force winds on Monday and Tuesday.

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25319 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:33 AM

I need more sleep as my choice of wording is really bad.

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica [Re: scottsvb1]
      #25320 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:35 AM

Hurr right now if models continue,,, you can go to Wet-N-Wild on monday or tuesday and use the 20 block cause of the sun cause the hurricane will be 500 miles to your west.

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica [Re: MikeC]
      #25321 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:42 AM

Street level map:



Full size map available at Skeetobite.com


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? [Re: Hurricaned]
      #25322 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:45 AM

Well, based on the current NHC track, I would say none. However, it's maybe 2 days before it clears Cuba, and we will know much more about a possible track by then.

While not currently forecast to do so, I would not be a bit surprised to see it jog right into central Florida. Not likely at this point, but don't take chances. Keep up on the reports, make plans, and relax.


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? [Re: rule]
      #25323 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:52 AM

I'm trying to figure out why this westward jog was such a surprise and has everyone scrambling to change their forecast. My understanding the entire time was that it was forecast to either 1) go over the western tip of Jamaica or, 2) skirt just to the south of the island. Seems to me it's doing exactly what they said. Maybe not staying exactly on that red line they drew but definitely doing what they said in their discussion.

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belleami
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
Clark - last night quote [Re: tenavilla]
      #25324 - Sat Sep 11 2004 08:59 AM

Quote:

The UKMET model has shifted quite a bit west with the 00Z run this morning. It now brings the storm inland near St. George Island, riding along U.S. 319 until it is almost directly over Tallahassee, then moving NNE into Georgia and South Carolina before slowing dramatically. Landfall timing is around 9-12z 9/15, or early morning Wednesday.




Let me know how this compares with the FSU model... I live on St George Island....
Susie -

--------------------
hang on!


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? [Re: tenavilla]
      #25325 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:00 AM

I thought pretty early last night that the eye would stay clear of land. I just decided that interaction with Jamaica is now causing Ivan to swing back to the WNW. I'm thinking that without land interaction we would be seeing more W motion. If Jamaica is having this effect I'm wondering once Ivan is clear will a more W component show up again?

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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
New Projected Path [Re: tenavilla]
      #25326 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:04 AM

My new favorite sat is the western Atlantic water vapor loop, which will soon be even better as Ivan enters the picture.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

The ridge over the US seems a lot smaller than it did yesterday, and the one over the Atlantic has weakened. The effect has been that the trough over Florida continues to be stationary. Unless movement occurs again, I see this as the path Ivan will take... that of least resistance.

So, for the first time.... the models and I are on the same page.!

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? [Re: Hurricaned]
      #25327 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:05 AM

I'm here in Orlando with you, Hurricaned. While it currently looks like we will get low force winds, there is certainly no chance that we should let up our guard. Like Tom Sorrells on WKMG Local likes to say, " No one has dodged the bullet yet."

However, when I first saw the predicted track of Ivan before it hit Grenada, I thought that it would heading into central GOM and making landfall in LA. I don't wish it on anyone, but it keeps looking further and further west. We'll have to see if that trough to the west breaks down any further.

My prayers are with those in Jamaica and the Caymans.

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Alabama [Re: tenavilla]
      #25328 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:06 AM

Well the one big thing I can see why for the scrambling. That wobble looks like it put Ivan on the same path as Charley trough Cuba. And we all know how little damage that did to Charley.

http://www.skeetobite.com/FLHurricane/ivantrack_adv36.gif

And from this, Cat 5 to Western FL isn't out of the question if it turns east in the GOM.


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? [Re: rule]
      #25329 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:06 AM

Well, if you look at the last couple frames, it's definitely back to more of NW movement. At one point they were forecasting a turn to the NE once it got into the eastern GOM. Did the trough not move as far into the Gulf as they thought? I sure don't see that NE turn in the forecast anymore.

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willy
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? [Re: tenavilla]
      #25330 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:07 AM

Looking at the water vapor loops,you can see that Ivan may continue to go farther west before it makes its turn to the north.I wouldn't rule out a track as far west as Biloxi,Ms. at this stage of the game.Only time will tell. Wherever it makes landfall God Bless and protect those in its path. Watching from LaPlace , La.

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? [Re: tenavilla]
      #25331 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:09 AM

I agree. NHC has been working within the limits of the model data quite well! No real surprises here. There are some "experts" whose egos are a bit deflated this morning after calling for landfalls in southwest/southern Florida (still very much within the range of possibilities). I've seen many times where the models have shifted one way or another, only to shift back to where they were previously one or two runs later. And then, there's the matter of intensity and timing. I'm more intrigued by the slow down (more so than earlier forecast).

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Alabama [Re: Takingforever]
      #25332 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:11 AM

They haven't changed the intensity forecast at all, just the landfall. Oh well, we're still outside the 3 day forecast, and statistically, 4 and 5 day forecasts can have an error of +150 miles. I'm reserving judgment until it gets past Cuba. From what I'm hearing, neither the trough nor the ridge are coming in as far as they thought, steering currents are weak in the GOM, so Ivan could do whatever he wants when he gets past Cuba.

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? [Re: rule]
      #25333 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:13 AM

Right now this storm and the models of future impacts on Cuba and US landfall will be during the next 6-12hours i feel. This is cause of the land interaction of Jamaica as its steering
around the island. Lets see if this now goes wnw towards Grand Cayman or more NW about 100 miles or so E. If it does the models will move back to the right some for its OZ run tonight and of course there are many aspects in the atmosphere too. Initziations of where it starts on the models will affect its starting and final direction it hits. Anyways for now, watch the wator vapor loops and movement the next 6-12 hours.


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando? [Re: RevUp]
      #25334 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:15 AM

You're right about the forecasts changing. With Frances the path it ended up taking was the original forecast, they started there, went all over the east coast and then came right back to the original forecast. Same with Charley (only west coast).

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