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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4118
Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
      #25613 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:01 PM

Hurricane Ivan remains a strong Category 5 hurricane, actually the 6th strongest ever seen in the Atlantic, with a pressure at 910mb. And it still has potential to strengthen even more. The strongest recorded was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, with a pressure of 888 mb.



The future track continues to slide west, the Panhandle being the highest probabiility. But I've noticed that the models have still been too far right ever since Ivan was a depression. This trend has been interesting. Note, that a US landfall would't be until tuesday or wednesday night and the track could still change.

Until Ivan starts making a definitive move, the confidence in any of this is low. Hurricane Mitch is a good example of why.



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Event RelatedLinks
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
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Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovirr
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: MikeC]
      #25621 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:09 PM

The NHC and models do not do well in the gulf. They never have.. Hurricanes seem to misbehave once they enter the gulf. I am not saying that the storm will misbehave, but I caution anyone to not take this track literally.. Take your precautions, but watch this storm carefully. We are still 4-5 days out from a landfall (maybe soon depending upon how well Ivan behaves)... The hurricane is about to enter the playground.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: MikeC]
      #25625 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:14 PM

Well Im surely getting nervous up here in the Western Panhandle. Me and the family are probably going to start getting prepared tomorrow buying some essential things like water, food, batteries etc. Still have 3 bags of ice left over from last week as we prepared just in case Frances came to visit. Tomorrow should be intresting. By the way, Clark, JK what are ya'll thinking right now? Love your posts.

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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #25627 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:16 PM

what are your thoughts on Ivans landfall? do you truly think we might be out of the woods? Im just south of tampa, kinda in your neck of the woods.

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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #25628 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:17 PM

With the path projected above, it seems like Ivan won't have much land to cross over when it hits Cuba, therefore, isn't it possible for him to not weaken too much as the eye passes land?

--------------------
Kelly


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Whew... [Re: 52255225]
      #25634 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:24 PM

Current track makes me happy. (sorry) This is 24 hours of forecasting AWAY from me, so I'm starting to believe it.

I see Ivan finally "wobbling" off of West at the moment. Anyone have a current strength?


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: kelcot]
      #25635 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:25 PM

Kelcot, Ivan shouldnt weaken to much crossing Western Cuba but once he gets in the Gulf shear is forecasted to hopefully weaken Ivan a bit, also the TCHP isnt as high except in a area south of Mobile. So to answer your question, conditions wont be perfect like they are now to sustain a Cat5 in the gulf but maybe a strong 3. just my opinion and things could change so just watch it carefully.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: kelcot]
      #25636 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:25 PM

Mike, gotta be on the ball for all the new forums: here's a repost from the last one:

Tick...tick...tick...getting close to 9/12

Never thought I'd say this, but I tend to agree with y'all that the 5 day has been a good experiment gone awry...too much uncertainty and not enough ...what...confidence? It's hard enough to do 72 hours, but 120 is really pushing it. I vote with the board on this one...scrap it. Or don't include it in the cone, because that cone is like 750 miles wide...

Anyone else with me?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Excellent post .. very honest well written words [Re: kelcot]
      #25637 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:27 PM

To Mike or whichever brother or moderator started this thread. Best words I've seen written anywhere. Almost didn't check in tonight because as far as I'm concerned until Ivan starts to move... and all the official tracks deal with his extremely slow movement which is just barely occaisionally north of due west..everything is all speculation.

Good quote.."Until Ivan starts making a definitive move, the confidence in any of this is low. Hurricane Mitch is a good example of why."

Very good, well written, well said.. congratulations.

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: LI Phil]
      #25640 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:28 PM

Posted in the last thread, reposting here:

I have a computer program that I use for tracking. I just pulled up my extended forecast from the 5pm discussion yesterday. The forecast just over 30 hrs ago was for the eye to pass just west of Montego Bay, right over Cayman Brac (the island to the far right) and just east of Havana. They had the US landfall just a little to the east of where they have it now. As far as timing, it was supposed to be over Cayman Brac right now. Obviously, none of that has come to pass Just goes to show how inaccurate hurricane forecasts can be.


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: LI Phil]
      #25641 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:28 PM

I think the 5 day is just bad. It's a nice idea, but we're just not able to forecast such a complex event yet.

Go back to the 3 day. It will cause less trauma.


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: DroopGB31]
      #25643 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:29 PM

I understand that it is extreamly difficult to maintain a storm of that intensity..........however......
1. Ivan is like no other storm I've seen in my 25 years of life, everytime I think "O.k., this is it, he's going to loose some of his power", but he gets stronger.
2. The GOM waters are almost like bath water now.

--------------------
Kelly


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: kelcot]
      #25645 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:29 PM

I'm not liking this one bit.... Looking at the IR. if it continues on its present course, it misses Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

If if misses Cuba (unless it continues west, my wishcast, actually), it's way too west into the GOM. This is in line with the trough in the GOM moving slight westerly. I am beginning to really worry about New Orleans and the subdeltas....

Where's the AgI (an alternative to the always mentioned) when you need it????

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: rule]
      #25646 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:31 PM

I have to agree with scrapping the 5-day and just sticking to their knitting and do a 3-day. I have to agree with Phil and they should re-name the 5 day cone the "Cone of Crapola" because that's where it usually ends up more wiggles and waggles than Sergio Garcia.....

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: Terra]
      #25647 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:32 PM

repost:

Quote:

But...I just realized that the eye still has not made it north of Jamaica. It's obviously well to the west, but not north.




The last couple of NHC forecast did not call for it to be north of the northern edge of Jamaica until sometime after 2:00-3:00am EDT. 18.7N 80.5N was the 2:00am forecast from 5:00 PM. I think it will be just a tad off at 18.6N 80.6W around 2:00am.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: rule]
      #25648 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:32 PM

Before Ivan enters the Gulf. Take a tracking map, of the GOM region, and throw a dart at it. You've got a 50/50 shot at getting it right.

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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: MikeC]
      #25649 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:32 PM

I was just watching the 6 hr Sat loops, and Ivan's over all size has decreased. Is this a sign of maybe more strengthing? I would think the small he becomes at his current 165 mph would only increase his wind speeds. Is there a something I'm missing?

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #25650 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:33 PM

I think the studies show that the 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as the 3 day forecasts used to be, that's why they now include them. Storms like this will always present a problem, but I don't think their previous 5 days' were that bad. It is just something we have to get used to. In fact, Isabel was nailed I believe. So for now, I'll be the dissenting voice. Of course, if it were up to me, I'd ask for a 10 day forecast.....

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: Rasvar]
      #25651 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:34 PM

I just looked at my "historical" files of the track. I use a computer program and keep the forecasted tracks to compare them to what actually happens. Even on 24 hr forecasts they have been way off with this one. See my earlier post in this thread regarding yesterdays 5pm

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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... [Re: Terra]
      #25653 - Sat Sep 11 2004 11:36 PM

Wellll... I've been saying it's going West all night, but I see a wobble to the WNW already. Probably going to scrape Grand Cayman and smack Cuba as scheduled.

My head hurts.


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