Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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We've got a little bit of a quandry on our hands this morning. The convective trends of last night continued into the early morning hours -- oh, about 3a ET -- but what that did allow was for the center to move into the midst of what convection remained. Now, nearing the diurnal convective maximum and the warmest waters in the Gulf, is making a fairly nice recovery, with a -pulse feature near and over the center of circulation. Recon pressure is 991mb and the overall intensity of the storm is essentially the same as its peak intensity from yesterday -- pressure only up 2mb and 850mb height only up 10 meters from 1349m to 1359m (850mb height gives you an indication of the intensity of the storm: the lower the 850mb height, the deeper the storm). Danny, I will have to disagree with you on the recon/intensity question...one of the biggest reasons we have recon is because those wind/height relationships and satellite estimates don't always work very well.
Nevertheless, shear isn't increasing all that much and there appears to be convective support around much of the storm. As called for last night, has the potential to become a hurricane before landfall, aided by the new convection and very warm SSTs over its path. Landfall is imminent within the next 12hr at or perhaps just slightly above its current intensity -- though as with many tropical cyclones, the strongest winds will ONLY be felt offshore, at the immediate coast, and in downbursts associated with heavy rain inland -- somewhere in the Mobile, AL area.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I awoke at 5am this morning to pounding rain and very gusty winds. Those who know me from last season may remember that I live about 20 miles North of Orlando in Central FL. That "tail" of convection that some were talking about in last night's posts has worked its way right over my area. I stepped outside this morning to a scene eerily reminiscent of the storms of last year....albeit on a somewhat smaller scale. We now have tornado watches issued for virtually the entire peninsula, effective at 5am until 5pm EDT this evening. One tornado warning has already been issued at 445am for a doppler-indicated tornado in Brevard County. Regardless of whether makes the cut and upgrades to a hurricane, this storm has a wide reach of nasty weather.
Just a footnote....should the storm make the upgrade, this would be HURRICANE #1 that impacted Florida so far in the very early days of the 2005 season.... To those who poo-pooed the idea that there was no way that Florida could possibly experience a hurricane season remotely close to last year, I say....watch out. The season is young and we already have one under our belt.
--Lou
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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From what I read at the 5 am discussion from the NWS there appears to be 2 different senarios:
THERE SEEM TO BE POSSIBILITIES FOR THE INTENSITY BEFORE
LANDFALL. THE FIRST IS THAT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST DEVELOPS DURING
THE UPCOMING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...AND MAKES ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO
BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THE SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE ABUNDANT
DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR HAS BEEN ENTRAINED
INTO THE STORM AND WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINING
TIME BEFORE LANDFALL. IF THAT HAPPENS...ARLENE MAY WELL WEAKEN
BEFORE LANDFALL. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE
BEFORE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH POSSIBILITY IS OCCURRING.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT WILL NOT BECOME A
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT THIS WILL
NOT HAPPEN.
I guess we just wait and see.
MaryAnn
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Look at the current long-range radar loop from Northwest Florida:
Radar
You can clearly see the storm's center and what appears to be an eyewall of heavy convective cells forming on the west side of the "eye-like structure". The distance from the radar site makes the south side of the storm look a bit "skinny".
--Lou
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wxornot
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
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Good Morning all,
It appears that is moving a bit more to the West than previously anticipated by most. A definate rain maker for the entire NorthEastern Gulfcoast.
If she does become a hurricane, it looks like it won't be a Florida landfalling hurricane. So, we've dodged another one in the Sunshine State !!
I'll probably be eating a lot of crow sandwiches this season but I think last year was a fluke and it's back to "normal" this year.
On the other hand, should a reapeat of last season take place, I'm prepared.
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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Not to be the one who doesn't live in the moment, but according to the model, another system is predicted to develope around Jamiaca and move into the bahamas, as it looks right now.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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You know that even if Florida stays wet all summer long with these little systems just below hurricane strength, that will be much better than one of those we had last year. So maybe the soothsayers can all be correct and they get their numbers but no disasters.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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hey there orlando can u send me a link of the model for that storm that is possible for development?...thanks
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Yes, the area to the east of the Leeward islands is large trof, harboring some upper level related convection. That is often a common spot for trof's to hang out, and really prevents any GOM action, and encourages homegrown trouble. I believe last year Hermine and Gaston formed from decoupled disturbances.
Arlene by the next advisory should become a hurricane. As Clark has said, a burst of convection has appeared in the center, and the system appears to be trying to close it's SW quad. with clouds. Mobile should is getting a taste of as we speak. A nasty feeder band is plowing through. The center happens to be offshore and appears to be moving more west. As I said last night, I don't this is just going to make one landfall, it's going to scrape the coast.
Clark- It does look like I may win the contest, to make light on this.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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yes way to go on predicting first named storm..as u can see mine was the 17th...ooooooh so close....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Well...the intermediate advisory is out, and of course, the keep as a strong TS...
[/ MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. [color]
she is clearly visible on radar now, and at times it appears she is tightening up and her convection is wrapping around her center, trying to form a defined eyewall...
it will be a very close call as to whether bumps her up to a cane at 11...while i don't wish this upon those affected, it would win me a bet and make keith234 the "winner" of the "first named hurricane" portion of the 2005 contest...
except for a very small and concentrated area, winds should not really be a problem for most...but this is a huge rainmaker for many, there will be some beach erosion, and of course there is always the possibility of spontaneous tornadoes in 's outer bands
as was noted earlier, some of the models are already hinting at future development off the East Coast, so once landfalls and spreads her tropical moisture up the east coast, we'll need to keep an eye trained to our east
to all in 's path: be safe and try to stay dry!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Let's get past this and then we can look down the road...
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I am hopeful all we Floridians get this season are strong TS's impacting our weather. will be history soon and will go down as a very strong tropical storm. We need to watch out for the next system as this season seems to want to be as memorable as last year; hopefully in the number of named systems and not for the power of these systems.
Cheers all!
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Here is a link to the latest - 5 days out. A few of the other models also support this. They have it moving north, then NE. Wow, 1.49 inches of rain since midnight here and more to come!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_120l.gif
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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2.01 since 8pm last night just south of Mobile
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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There is a new thread next door so move on over 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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It appears is just about out of time and water and just when she finally got her "center" together. Earlier this morning, a burst of convection imminated out of her old "main" center and moved due west and with this burst; the new center took hold and held and is now the only one depicted on satellite; FINALLY! Since I last looked at satellite; she appears to have resumed her 350 degree movmt as she approaches MS-AL border. Minimum cat 1 is still plausible. Does anyone remember the last time NWSFO Birmingham issued an Inland Tropical Storm Warning for it's entire CWA? Unless the criteria changed, last year's edition were simply High Wind Watches and Warnings; not Tropical, except closer to the coast and they were coordinated with NWSFO Mobile-Pensacola. Big area they issued it for and big time inland away from the storm!
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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