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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Emily [Re: MichaelA]
      #43699 - Sun Jul 17 2005 09:55 PM

Quote:

No visible eye on the last frame of the IR loop - 0045Z.


Or is there one a little farther north??This one is driving me nuts!Eye,no eye,eye,no eye.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Emily [Re: danielw]
      #43700 - Sun Jul 17 2005 09:59 PM

Quote:

I've checked both the WV and IR imagery. I appears to me that the eye may be displaced to the NW. I see a tight curl in the last hour NW of where the ERC was taking place.
I'm using http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/goes




I saw that on the 00:15 water vapor and thought, no. Then I saw the 00:45 and 01:15 and was !what! I have no understanding of what's going on now, except that Emily's last bid to reorganize might have failed because she is so close to land.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Emily Gets Stronger [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #43702 - Sun Jul 17 2005 10:13 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Looks like the eye may come ashore around Tancah. If so, I really doubt if Cancun will see much of anything as far as wind. Forgot for the moment they'd still get storm surge.


That is only about 10 miles north of Tulum,I can not see it hitting that far south.Now the eye in not looking great,I give up.For 3 years I was up and down this coast,I do know it well.It is one of the coolest places on earth.




Actually I just heard TWC say Tulim...which I had considered but thought a little too far south.

Also they just said pressure up to 955...so they must have access to more of the recon data we haven't seen yet, and the storm is still weakening.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Jul 17 2005 10:17 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Emily Gets Stronger [Re: Biowatch]
      #43703 - Sun Jul 17 2005 10:15 PM

Quote:

Thanks for your view, Clark. I did think Merida was in a direct path, and was confused as to what would take the force down with the lack of any elevation. I know it is not that close to the coast, but did not think there was enough real estate in between landfall and Merida to take it down much.




On the current track from the NHC Merida can expect 9 hours of tropical storm force winds starting 7-18-05 05edt peaking at 54 mph at 7-18-05 08edt. If you need any close up maps just let me know. Hurrevac will be up all night long .

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: Emily Gets Stronger [Re: HCW]
      #43704 - Sun Jul 17 2005 10:25 PM

Thanks....going to be a long night............

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
11 PM EDT Update [Re: Biowatch]
      #43706 - Sun Jul 17 2005 11:08 PM

HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 (edited~danielw)

AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0018Z. NORMALLY THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 120 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY AND IS NOW UP TO 955 MB.
THEREFORE IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INTENSITY IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER AT THIS TIME...115 KT. THIS IS STILL CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...AND EMILY REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN SHOWS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE FLUCTUATING...BUT WITH NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...EARLY ON MONDAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/180253.shtml


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negrildude
Unregistered




Re: Emily [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #43708 - Sun Jul 17 2005 11:09 PM

winds picking up strong still power in cozumel

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 11 PM EDT Update [Re: danielw]
      #43709 - Sun Jul 17 2005 11:13 PM

Looks like the outer edges are onshore now.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: 11 PM EDT Update [Re: Margie]
      #43710 - Sun Jul 17 2005 11:25 PM

hey bob! give us a shout out here on flhurricane.com im praying for these people. i can hear ya on hurricane city. gl bob!

Edited by nl (Sun Jul 17 2005 11:26 PM)


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dad
Unregistered




Re: 11 PM EDT Update [Re: Margie]
      #43711 - Sun Jul 17 2005 11:26 PM

Thanks for the updates.Our son is on Cozumel and we have no word from him since he left hotel for shelter.Please try to keep us posted with condition updates and any news abput damage in Cozumel.Our son is supposed to be in a convention center in Cozumel. Our prayers are with all on the mayan coast.
Concerned Dad


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: 11 PM EDT Update [Re: dad]
      #43712 - Sun Jul 17 2005 11:28 PM

i have a friend that was on a cruise down there hope she is ok. im praying for everyone there.

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Larry
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 28
Loc: Raleigh, NC 35.82N 78.60W
New Thread Started [Re: nl]
      #43713 - Sun Jul 17 2005 11:35 PM

A new thread has started:
Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel


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