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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Oh NO!! [Re: Clark]
      #51180 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:07 AM

anyone got the link to models from the university web site thats been posted a few times? had a bunch of models on it. i lost the link.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: Oh NO!! [Re: Clark]
      #51181 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:07 AM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.marine.html

Forecast valid 29/1200z 29.0n 89.8w
Max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 45se 45sw 45nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 65sw 80nw.
34 kt...140ne 100se 100sw 140nw.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Oh NO!! [Re: WeatherNut]
      #51182 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:10 AM

Wife's at work until 7 or 8 am. We're stuck until later in the day because she's going to have to sleep and we ain't sitting in hours and hours of traffic. I guess I'm starting to consider ramifications a little more as you guys have some convincing arguments.

scotts,

I live in kind of an exclusive section of Metaire called Old Metairie which is a mix of up to multi-million dollar homes, really old 900sf homes and older homes like mine (1953) that have been added onto. We're in an isolated subdivision but I think most of the criminals know where the pickins' are. I don't have anything but all those doctors and lawyers that live in this neighborhood kind of lay out the welcome matt for everyone else should looting take place. Funny thing is, my house (assuming viability of the city) would be worth far more demolished than standing due to the high land value ratios for the old houses (mine's probably 65% land). I could build something twice as nice for the proceeds (not that I want all my stuff to get destroyed).

If at all possible, I'm going to try to crash before 3am so I can wake up early enough to get all the crap done that I put off today.

I'll check back a few more times before bed.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Oh NO!! [Re: Clark]
      #51183 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:11 AM

Thanks Clark. Shana in TX had PM'd me about WWL.
I listen to them Everytime there is a Storm in the Gulf.

870 on the AM Radio Dial.

And the TV station link. They may be in Simulcast.
http://www.wwltv.com/

By the way. This will hint on my age. But I listened to them in 1965 when Betsy was bearing down on New Orleans. You Just can't beat WWL AM. For Storm Coverage!!

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:14 AM)


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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Re: Oh NO!! [Re: Clark]
      #51184 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:12 AM

Hello folks,
Well we've been waiting for this storm to organize and spin up to an intensity commensurate with the pressures we've been seeing. Even so, I have to say I'm a bit shocked how fast this thing has jumped into cat 4 status. So just to open up the discussion for you weather geeks: what does the intensity situation look like from here forward? I know the water is extremely warm, low shear etc. But does anyone have some insights into what we will see vis a vis intensity as the projected path seems to be bad no matter what jogs this storm might take prior to landfall.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Oh NO!! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51185 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:13 AM

Storm Hunter: try http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png for the early-cycle guidance and http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/late1.png for the late-cycle guidance.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border [Re: ralphfl]
      #51186 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:17 AM

"The reason i get so upset with people saying stuff like that is last year people on these sites said Its coming to tampa better evac now when charlie came.....Now when they posted that on here some people with no clue got scared and left a safe location in tampa for a spot in Orlando where they were killed.

-- edit -- 2 folks lost their life in Orlando from Charlie and neither of the two were folks who evacuated from another area."

I agree with the original poster's intent if not complete accuracy. I obeyed a mandatory evacuation order from coastal anna maria island for Charley. I boarded up my home and headed inland to Arcadia, well above sea level and not predicted to be within the hurricane wind swath.

Several hours later I found myself hiding under the staircase of my parents' home and praying very loudly. Charley changed direction at the crucial last hours and we suffered hours of terror I would never wish on another human being.

As the eye of Category 4 Charley passed within a mile of us, the floors of the thankfully well-built old home rose and fell with the gusts. My stomach would flip-flop as the floor literally breathed below us. The closet doors upstairs began slamming open and closed and continued without ceasing. One magnolia and 7 huge old oaks crashed down around the house, with one large limb peeling a large section of roof open like a sardine can.

Water poured down the hall and pooled around us as we held cushions, mattresses, and anything we could find over our heads. Judging by the noise we agreed we had lost the entire second story of the home.

Debris flew in all directions and continually slammed the walls near us. We sat in the big old home in a huge puddle of water and prayed for deliverance from the monster storm. It eventually grew so loud, we couldn't even hear each other, only the slamming of objects into the home, the scream of the wind, the rattling of windows, the crashing of trees and the odd wailing sound of pine floors as the wind lifts them ever so slightly before letting them settle again.

We were delivered, but the world outside the walls of that home was not the same as the one we had left to take refuge from the storm and won't be for many years to come. Power was not restored in many areas for six weeks. The entire area remains a sea of blue tarps on roofs and all trees were stripped of their leaves and limbs. Many homes and businesses collapsed entirely and the roof over the only open shelter also blew away. The church where I was married was demolished. Our barn was blown 1/4 mile away.

I can't beging to describe, although I've tried, the devestation or the fear, or sorrow that comes after experiencing such an event.

The lesson here isn't to ignore warnings. But rather, to think for yourself and take precautions even after you have heeded warnings because a pin-point simply isn't possible with a hurricane.

We returned to our home on the coast after the hurricane to find that not one old palm frond had been disturbed in our absence. And our windows remained safely boarded. The contrast was shocking and remains so in my mind.

My prayers and thoughts are sincerely with all of those who are facing this storm. Think carefully and take every precaution to protect yourself and your family. And pray.

-Bev

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:21 AM)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: Oh NO!! [Re: KATFIVE]
      #51187 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:19 AM

does anyone have current intensity forecasts from SHIPS, GFDL and FSU Superensemble?
last I saw SHIPS was showing 149/150mph.
thanks!

--------------------
Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Oh NO!! [Re: Steve]
      #51188 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:21 AM

if you live in this area (place you posted)............LEAVE......don't wait!!!! NO may never look the same again for awhile....... she's already 24hrs ahead of strength......forecasted to be a Cat 4 sunday..... most likely a few more ERC today and she could be a CAT 5 later on .... ALOT OF WATER is headed for the northern GOM coast.....just like Ivan did last year.... pretty sure now we will here the media reference this to Ivan later today....and people will PANIC....especially in NO!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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heynow
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: Abbeville, LA 29.97N 92.13W
Route [Re: Clark]
      #51189 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:22 AM

I usually wouldn't do this on this forum (been a registered user for almost a year) BUT...my brother is leaving NO right now (1:19 am cst). Can't find any info if he should take I-10 or HWY90. Does anyone know if 90 is backed up and I-10 is a better route?

--------------------
I've lived through Danny ('85), Juan ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05) and Gustav ('08).


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
New Thread [Re: Clark]
      #51190 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:23 AM

Given the impact of the storm and the latest information, I'm going to go ahead and post a new thread. We'll pick up the discussion there. Thanks everyone....

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Oh NO!! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51191 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:23 AM

HURRICANE Katrina SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF HURRICANE Katrina. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 137
KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 125 KT AT
THE SURFACE. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE
AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED 125 KT
MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP
UNTIL LANDFALL HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO 130 KT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT Katrina COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND PERHAPS
EVEN REACH CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida 28.54N 81.39W
Re: Oh NO!! [Re: danielw]
      #51195 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:33 AM

thank you for posting the link for the no station
I am listening to it

I have an aunt in collins ms who is alone and I need to know all i can about this storm

weather channel just said manadotory evac for the city of no
thanks

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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