Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Why should the end of Sept./first of Oct. be interesting? Should there be a lot of development at this time and why do you think so?
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J.C.
Unregistered
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Thanks for your input RC & ED. I just checked the latest recon data. Looks like she is mighty sick right now. Pressure up to 988mb. Another concern is that after watching these storms for over 30 yrs in this area is the Gulf Stream. I remember Alex from last year when it blew up to 90 kts seemingly over night. It seems to me taht the shear has lessened a bit so the only inhibiting factor for intensification is the upwelling of water but yet it will be moving over waters that it has not yet traveled over as it approaches the coast line. I also checked the latest vis sat and it appears to me that the dry air that had been entrained may beginning to get closer to the coc. My thought is that it may actually weaken until the dry air gets out then a more modest strenghtening after the next 6-12 hours. Anyone have any thought on this?
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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MJO has become redefined this month, with a fairly solid wave propagating east right now. the enhancing zone has already crossed the dateline. it could be that the new eastpac system is a precursor to an oncoming active stretch. the wave in august washed out before getting to our part of the hemisphere (it was probably damped by some other factor), and this one could also... but if this one makes it, we'll get an pulse in the atlantic during a hyper-active year.
the entire basin is open for development this time of year, but the eastern atlantic usually doesn't do much after the third week of september. it looks like the far cv region will shut down shortly.. it has already been impinged on by upper troughs, prematurely. we've got what's acting like a persistent positive nao, which favors zonal ridging.. with negative pulses... this is the pattern that enacted in july and gave us all that activity. it also favors low-trajectory tracks in the deep tropics that get storms further westward.
then there's the ensemble means themselves. they've been showing increasingly zonal ridging in the eastern u.s. for some time.. this has verified so far. what we'll have in the next couple weeks, if it verifies in the future, will be a pattern that favors tracks into the gulf and eventually to the southeast coast. add to that, late september/early october is when the favored development zones shift to the western caribbean.
all of this adds up to renewed peril on the gulf coast, is what i'm thinking. perhaps something like what happened in the fall of 2002, only not in an el nino year.
HF 1319z12september
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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HF The gulf coast that you are referring to. Do you have an idea of which gulf coast would have the most risk due to the Zonal pattern you were talking about? I know that we are all who are affected by Hurricanes around the gulf wonder who will be blindfolded and given their last cigarrette, so to speak.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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umm yes, a bunch of gulf storms, that's exactly what we need to top of this year.... 
NOT
Not much about this year or the storms it has produced seems to be logical so I will hope that all of what you (HF) just said turns out... Not To Be The Case..... 
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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HF points out an expected change in the that would change the Atlantic from an inactive to an active period - with the change occuring from the end of Sept into October - and I agree. October could end up being more active than normal. The CV season is probably over - most of the waves exiting the west coast of Africa have been weak and there haven't been that many of them lately. The weaker waves are moving west northwestward at a more southerly latitude so formation is not likely until they get near the southern Caribbean Islands or into the Caribbean Sea itself. This pattern, if it evolves (and it probably will since there are signs of this already) would move developing systems either into the Gulf of Mexico or, depending on the strength of the Atlantic ridge and the strength of cold fronts moving toward the Southeast over the U.S., northward up the east coast. I believe that his point was that storms could be prone to entering the Gulf - where they eventually go from there depends on conditions at that time.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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11:00 discussion out. Track about the same, but a bit slower. Some models say it could still be off SE coast in 5 days:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200516.disc.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Looks like pretty much due west with the satellite presentation looking a bit better:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
Looks like pretty much due west with the satellite presentation looking a bit better:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
watch the center NOT the clouds and you can see the center on your link is going to the northwest slowly.
Edited by ralphfl (Mon Sep 12 2005 01:34 PM)
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I might tend to agree with you. I`m in N. Charleston on business task force and radar out of both town and Wilmington show some hefty storms in a outer band off shore that seem to be slowly tracking toward the coast . Movement to me looks west and maybe a little tad to the northwest. Its been interesting here for the last couple of days. Our sales people here at the property that I`m at have been getting inquireys from local power companys repair people on how many rooms do we have available this week , just incase they need them if something happens. From a revenue stand point it would be nice to fill up the house seeing that its kind of slow here for the next week and a half.......Weatherchef
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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I've got a question. I'm assuming when forecasts are done, timing means a lot. Reading the discussions from yesterday there was the thinking that Ophelia could be stationary for a few days, then assume a north to eventually northeast track. At least that was one of the discussions I just went and looked at.
Ophelia now seems to be moving on a little faster and slightly more westward track then thought yesterday. Will this mean she won't feel the affect of the trough until inland now opposed to before hitting the coast? Looking on my coordinates she only has about 1 degree to go before being directly South of Myrtle Beach but still has a little over 2 degrees to go north. I'm thinking this may be another Wilmington or Cape Fear area hit. Just a weird storm that probably has about 2 surprises left.   
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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If Ophelia is going to start intensifying again, now would be the time for that to start, as I think it is pretty much over the Gulf Stream at this point. While there has been a very slight increase in convection around the center in the last hour or so, nothing dramatic yet. It seems like these storms that reach hurricane strength and then have their inner-core decimated like Ophelia often struggle to recover, even if they find themselves in a favorable environment again.
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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I dont think Ophelia is going to do much strengthing. It looks like, to me, that she will continue to be borderline tropical storm/hurricane all that way until landfall with many fluctuations inbetween. I say this, because even though it has a fairly favorable enviornment for strengthing around it; and outflow appears to be returning to west side, there is just so much dry air around her. I think whenever Ophelia tries to strengthen she will ingest dry air into the core and unwind itself again like it has over the last 24 hours. It's kinda a catch 22; strengthen, take in dry air, weaken and filter the dry air, strengthen, ingest dry air again, ect, ect. Unless that dry air goes away she doesnt look to have an opportunity to really pick things up before landfall.
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Tantalus
Unregistered
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Just heard a brief sound clip on the radio by Joe Bastardi indicating that we should be looking at posible Caribbean development toward the end of this week and into the weekend. ANy thoughts? And thanks for your good work. This site is a real must for those of us trying to keep a weather eye out. Kudos.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I think it's more scary that we are calling the current period "inactive" and the coming induced period to be "active." If this isn't "active," I don't want to see what is...
As for future development, there is a wave in the Atlantic that looks like it might develop once it gets out of the SAL. Models are developing it as it nears the Carribean, so JB might not be so wrong as he usually is. This wave has been tried to be snuffed out by the SAL, and the wave fought back against a weakening SAL and now looks better than at anytime since it left Africa.
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Sep 12 2005 06:01 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Ophelia reminds me a bit of Isidore from 2002, albeit for different reasons. Weakened storm that is still organized enough to be near hurricane intensity, but disrupted enough by external influences (here, upwelling and potentially dry air; heard a few debates on the topic today) to result in a storm with a relatively flat wind profile that, while moving into a more favorable environment, is not conducive to any quick development (if any at all). Expect the storm to come in near this intensity. I expect this storm to come in between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington sometime late tomorrow or on Wednesday -- a little further south of the position is my guess -- before turning toward the north at a slow clip. Potential threat to the DelMarVa, Long Island, and New England is there, but other than high surf, gusty winds, and a couple-few inches of rain, it's nothing to write home about.
Wave out in the Cent. Atlantic bears some watching, but the upper-low in the same area needs to fill or move out before anything is to get going out there. There has been some model support for something and those waters are largely untouched this year -- in fact, the area east of 40W contains what are probably the least-disturbed waters this season outside of the SW Caribbean, though this is likely to form further west of there -- so it bears watching. Cape Verde season, which never really got going in earnest, is largely done with troughing taking over the tropical east Atlantic.
Waters remain anamolously cool in the Gulf and off of the SE coastline due to and Ophelia, respectively. It's still enough to get something going in the Gulf, but the threat for another big storm has been greatly diminished at least for the time being -- if not the entire season, as now is the time when air temperatures begin to fall and start to take the SSTs with them. Only 6 more storms gets us to the end of the list; with another one or two likely this month and the potential for a fairly active October, it's a fair bet that we make a run at the end of the list.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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WisconsinWill
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: Madison, WI
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Quote:
Ophelia reminds me a bit of Isidore from 2002, albeit for different reasons. Weakened storm that is still organized enough to be near hurricane intensity, but disrupted enough by external influences (here, upwelling and potentially dry air; heard a few debates on the topic today) to result in a storm with a relatively flat wind profile that, while moving into a more favorable environment, is not conducive to any quick development (if any at all).
Yes, Isidore -- I think Chris Landsea called it "The Mother of all Swirls" as it moved north over the GOM. Never having been nearly as strong, perhaps Ophelia is the "The Daughter of all Swirls."
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Gulf is cool where we are, 82 degrees as opposed to 91 degrees before made landfall.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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...to let you know that a new Main Page article has been posted. Your thoughts on the future movement of this system are always appreciated.
Cheers,
ED
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