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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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BrooklynMommy
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records [Re: mempho]
      #59493 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:29 PM

Hi everyone! I've been watching you for almost a year now and hope that you guys can give me your best guess if Port St Lucie will get hit again and will it be of any strength by the time it hits over here. I still haven't gotten all the repairs on my house from the last one!

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Here we go! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #59494 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:29 PM

75 knots? What the heck?

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: My Take on Wilma [Re: dreamingtree]
      #59495 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:33 PM

Anyone from immediate Tampa Bay area? Now Bay News 9 Met Alan W. says that if the storm turns early it will be S. FL, If it turns later it will be a big difference for our area,which is a given. They anticipate this turn to happen on Friday, So what, that gives this area 24 hours to evacuate???? Is it likely that this may happen? Are you all making the preparations now?
I guess Iam a little nervous now. Any thoughts or comments
Thanks,
Christine
St. Petersburg,FL
Evac B zone


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: hello everyone [Re: Steve H1]
      #59496 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:33 PM

Quote:

Hold the Phone folks: Something has to be BAD WRONG:

EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ALONG ATL
SEABOARD...UNFORTUNATELY WHERE IMPACT FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS IS
GREATEST. TRACK OF Wilma HAS PROVEN TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH 15Z
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY PUT INTO THE DARK SHADOW OF
THE 12Z GFS. MORNING UPDATE FOR Wilma WAS INFLUENCED HEAVILY BY
06Z GFS...WHICH SHOWED ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE UP AND AROUND ERN
PERIPHERY OF VORTEX CLOSING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES. DAY 5 POINT WAS
CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND THAN EARLIER OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN FINAL MANUAL PROGS. BUT ALONG
CAME THE 12Z GFS...WHICH SLOWED WilmaS DEPARTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS TREMENDOUSLY. FURTHERMORE...WHOLE ORIENTATION OF UPPER
TROF OVER ERN US LOOKS DIFFERENT ON LATEST GFS...WITH MORE OF A N
TO S AXIS VS W TO E FROM THE 00Z RUN. DECISION TO USE 00Z GFS FOR
THE PRELIM PROGS WAS BASED LARGELY ON ITS GOOD CONTINUITY AND
STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO ITS ENSMEAN...WHICH STILL SOUND ATTRACTIVE
...ESP IN LIGHT OF MORE RECENT MODEL VOLATILITY. SO...COURSE OF
LEAST REGRET WAS TO STICK WITH EARLIER NOTIONS AND HOPE THAT
MODELS SETTLE DOWN ONCE BURGEONING VORTEX MAKES UP ITS MIND AS TO
ITS INTENTIONS.




...Which is all sophisticated code for "...huh, i dunno"


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: hello everyone [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59498 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:34 PM

New thread, everybody.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Here we go! [Re: dave foster]
      #59500 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:36 PM

We will have to wait and see. But the 2PM is still calling for a NW turn in the next 24 hours and the NWS seems to be ignoring for the most part the 12Z run of the GFS. So we shall see, hopefully it does move to some other location, but come the next round of models we shall see. Other Global models have yet to jump on this bandwagon at this time.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
Re: hello everyone [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59501 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:36 PM

Two models now show a Yucatan hit, stalling, and drift to the east over Cuba and Florida straits. The satellite imagery shows the center going west of the NHC 11am path. Are there enough steering currents to really push it more north to avoid the Yucatan now? Does she have enough inertia to create her own path and continue on to the Yucatan?

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Here we go! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #59502 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:37 PM

I see a slightly different recon value
H. 892 mb

892 pressure

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2018.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Here we go! [Re: leetdan]
      #59503 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:37 PM

They did what was listed as eyewall dropsonde in the NE eyewall which showed some unusual data... surface pressure measured by the dropsonde was 898 mb (only slightly lower than the listed central pressure, which would be unusual for the eyewall). The mean boundary layer winds were listed as being out of the N at 81 knots, the 850mb winds were listed as being out of the N at 88 kts, while the 700mb winds were listed as being out of the E at 41 knots. I'm not sure what to make of all that.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Here we go! [Re: Bloodstar]
      #59504 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:39 PM

Looks like they corrected the vortex report to reflect a measured pressure of 892 mb, rather than an extrapolated pressure of 894 mb.

Edit: The eye dropsonde that measured 892 mb also reported surface winds of 29 knots. Typically, that would indicate the actual central pressure is 2-3 mb lower, but this isn't a typical storm, so who knows.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Oct 19 2005 02:42 PM)


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No Hurricane Experience
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Re: Question regarding travel to Florida on Monday.... [Re: sara33]
      #59507 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:42 PM

This is going to sound like a totally irrelevant question to all of you living in Florida, and for that I apologize in advance. I live in the State of Washington and my family and I are scheduled to fly in to Orlando at 5pm on this coming Monday night to start our vacation (we love Florida and we're going to the parks for a week in Orlando and then heading out to Port Canavaral for a cruise to the Eastern Caribbean leaving on Saturday the 29th). We have absolutely no hurricane experience and were wondering if we should consider cancelling our plans in the Orlando area if the hurricane looks to go through that area over the weekend (or later)?? Our thoughts and prayers are with everybody in Florida and I know these questions are trivial compared to trying to make plans regarding Wilma where you live. Any thoughts anyone has would be greatly appreciated.

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gailwarning
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Satellite Beach FL 28.18N 80.59W
Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records [Re: MLB Pilot]
      #59510 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:48 PM

Quote:

BTW, I have a C-182 (Cessna) that we could use to punch into the storm. Any co-pilot volunteers?




Hello, neighbor! I'm down the street in Satellite Beach. Trust me, you do not have enough sick sacks to take me up in a Cessa during any weather condition. LOL!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records [Re: gailwarning]
      #59514 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:53 PM

There is a new thread up.

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RyanTheCaneMan
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Re: My Take on Wilma [Re: sara33]
      #59516 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:54 PM

Quote:

Anyone from immediate Tampa Bay area? Now Bay News 9 Met Alan W. says that if the storm turns early it will be S. FL, If it turns later it will be a big difference for our area,which is a given. They anticipate this turn to happen on Friday, So what, that gives this area 24 hours to evacuate???? Is it likely that this may happen? Are you all making the preparations now?
I guess Iam a little nervous now. Any thoughts or comments
Thanks,
Christine
St. Petersburg,FL
Evac B zone




I live in South Tampa


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD 26.10N 80.30W
Re: hello everyone *DELETED* [Re: leetdan]
      #59517 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:55 PM

Post deleted by Multi-Decadal Signal

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dreamingtree
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: My Take on Wilma [Re: sara33]
      #59521 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:58 PM

Yes, I am from Oldsmar, just north of the bay. We are prepared for a storm, but are not going to evacuate until we are told to do so. We know our zone, and it is zone B, which means cat 3 or greater we must leave. A cat 5 would flood us out totally, but its pretty doubtful this one will stay that strength. (hopefully) Thats the 1st step is knowing your zone. We really would hate to leave, but we dont want to be shrimp boat captains either! LOL Some people may chose to leave earlier, and I know many businesses are already making preparations to close if a tropical storm warning is issued. No one is getting boards yet though. Right now we are prepared to ride out the storm and are stocked up on batteries and flashlights and all that good stuff. If we are made to evacuate, true, that wont be much time at all, but there isnt a whole lot of choice. There are so many ways this storm could turn, its hard to figure out. Maybe with the experts opinions and amateurs opinions together we will come to some sort of conclusion soon. Every point counts!

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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD 26.10N 80.30W
Re: hello everyone [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #59554 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:00 PM

Quote:

Quote:

New thread, everybody.




GO TO NEW THREAD STARTED @ 2:19 by MikeC!!

TITLE: Wilma CONTINUED

PAGES WILL LOAD MUCH FASTER, DAMNIT!




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Capedad
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Re: Question regarding travel to Florida on Monday.... [Re: No Hurricane Experience]
      #59656 - Wed Oct 19 2005 06:53 PM

Definitely DO NOT cancel.

You will not be able to fly in if the weather is bad so the airlines might make the decision for you.

By Monday night, it should be off in the Atlantic.

A cruise the following weekend will be fine. The port will close if the weather is too bad. It will be fine by next weekend.

Delta


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