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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
tick tick tick tick... [Re: cieldumort]
      #67503 - Tue Jun 27 2006 01:59 AM

sounds like time is running out.
91L is looking better at this late hour, even though it may not have a real surface reflection. convection is finally focusing on the high-vorticity area and weakened elsewhere, but surface pressures are generally rising in the area. by tomorrow evening the system will be somewhere up in north carolina. if it could close off it would pretty much automatically be a tropical storm.. gradient tightening would put gales on one side. time is growing short, though.
93L hasn't got a better future. it isn't getting organized quickly even though they're down to one real LLC (around 9/49). hadn't been paying much attention to the fact that shear picks up to around 20-30kt in the track ahead. it would have to start clinging to convection and developing shortly to have a chance of fighting it off. plenty of subsidence over the eastern caribbean... prolly just choke it.
they keep teasing, but it looks like the title for this thread is more on the mark than i'd thought. deep-fried crow time, on the way.
HF 0559z27june


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: tick tick tick tick... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67504 - Tue Jun 27 2006 03:17 AM

91L is over GA and hasnt been over water since Sunday evening unless your talking about something else that caught your eye.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1777
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: tick tick tick tick... [Re: scottsvb]
      #67505 - Tue Jun 27 2006 04:21 AM

Technically, you have no argument from me there - the primary surface low being tracked is in Georgia now. However, the parent mid-upper level feature is riding the stream, and as Hank points out, convection is coming together in the region of highest vorticity, plus , we've got outflow tonight.

Somewhat deeper convection within the region of highest vorticity, upper-level outflow, gulf stream. This *can* come together within 12-36 hours. Much better chances now than over the weekend, I tell you. I felt precious TQ points getting sucked out to sea with all the mongering from NHC over the past few days re: 91L


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
whoa, there it goes [Re: cieldumort]
      #67506 - Tue Jun 27 2006 05:39 AM

check out the long range base reflectivity loop out of coastal south carolina. you can see a convective vortex off in the distance. it's closing off. we'll probably have a weak tropical cyclone run into coastal north carolina this evening. it's track-relative shear is very low, and it's moving very close to the gulf stream.
the 5:30 AM TWO is still calling it a broad, diffuse area of low pressure. expect a special statement later this morning.
track will probably turn due north as it approaches north carolina. it may run up the chesapeake bay tonight.

took a look at 93L a minute ago. the visibles should get on it soon and clear up how well the vortex is doing. the little one that was still coherent a few hours ago is partially obscured by a small convective burst. convection is extending west of the low.. there's another big burst north of the low where the old trailing vortex overtook the remaining one.. which is sort of like a removed CDO. i don't know what to make of the mess to the east--it appears to be a wave--other than to assume there may be an associated wind surge to interfere with 93L in it. the convection with it is active and probably robbing 93L of convective energy, and convergent flow. 93 has to do something soon... by wednesday it should be encountering more southwesterly shear and have its intensity capped.
HF 0939z27june


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3512
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
530 AM [Re: cieldumort]
      #67507 - Tue Jun 27 2006 05:39 AM Attachment (271 downloads)

I'm not a MET. I didn't stay at Holiday Inn last night ( I'm at work), and never, say never when dealing with the weather.

Latest TWO from NHC is NOT giving the remnants of 91L any more than a mention.

However the satellite frames will give you at least a "What is that?"
This is the current-0845Z RGB pic. I used this to emphasize the Lightning in the central areas.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3512
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: whoa, there it goes [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67508 - Tue Jun 27 2006 05:50 AM

Looks like Day Shift might be busy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se.html

Tony, get ready to run out the door!

Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 27 2006 05:51 AM)


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: whoa, there it goes [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67509 - Tue Jun 27 2006 05:59 AM

Quote:

check out the long range base reflectivity loop out of coastal south carolina. you can see a convective vortex off in the distance. it's closing off. we'll probably have a weak tropical cyclone run into coastal north carolina this evening. it's track-relative shear is very low, and it's moving very close to the gulf stream.
the 5:30 AM TWO is still calling it a broad, diffuse area of low pressure. expect a special statement later this morning.
track will probably turn due north as it approaches north carolina. it may run up the chesapeake bay tonight.

took a look at 93L a minute ago. the visibles should get on it soon and clear up how well the vortex is doing. the little one that was still coherent a few hours ago is partially obscured by a small convective burst. convection is extending west of the low.. there's another big burst north of the low where the old trailing vortex overtook the remaining one.. which is sort of like a removed CDO. i don't know what to make of the mess to the east--it appears to be a wave--other than to assume there may be an associated wind surge to interfere with 93L in it. the convection with it is active and probably robbing 93L of convective energy, and convergent flow. 93 has to do something soon... by wednesday it should be encountering more southwesterly shear and have its intensity capped.
HF 0939z27june




i just don't see the convectively generated vortex having enough time to work down to the surface, especially in a strong (and increasing) southerly wind flow, and given the fact that there is already a well defined surface low near KSAV.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/...&duration=0

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/atl-seusplot.php

The only scenario where a surface low would "jump" offshore is via baroclinic transfer of energy. Again, that whole area is being pinched in between the western ATLC ridge and approaching short wave trough. With the deep layer southerly flow increasing along the eastern seaboard this morning, that whole mess is going to "rocket" northward without having the opportunity to close off anything at the surface.


Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 27 2006 06:04 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1777
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 530 AM [Re: danielw]
      #67510 - Tue Jun 27 2006 06:01 AM

A recent obs search I ran showed only mixed results for pressure falls in the area.

My take is that there is one healthy mid-level low forming, complete with progressively deeper and deeper convection, which may have time to affect the surface. Plus, we have some incredible anti-cyclonic outflow tonight (for the first time with 91L!!!)

I see no reason to stop tracking 91L. Not a one. Now, I can see them making some kind of plausible argument to call this one 95L, but come on.

I've seen worse-looking "TD"s.


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: 530 AM [Re: cieldumort]
      #67511 - Tue Jun 27 2006 06:09 AM

Quote:

A recent obs search I ran showed only mixed results for pressure falls in the area.

My take is that there is one healthy mid-level low forming, complete with progressively deeper and deeper convection, which may have time to affect the surface. Plus, we have some incredible anti-cyclonic outflow tonight (for the first time with 91L!!!)

I see no reason to stop tracking 91L. Not a one. Now, I can see them making some kind of plausible argument to call this one 95L, but come on.

I've seen worse-looking "TD"s.




Here's the problem with something trying to close off at the surface - the environmental surface flow ahead of the MLC is out of the S and SE at 15-20KT. in that kind of ambient flow, you are going to need some serious SLP falls to induce a northerly low level surface flow beneath the MLC. Moreover the southerly component to the mean steering flow is accelerating. The system is simply going to run out of time and open ocean in short order.

I would expect the best pressure falls to remain over land, and be baroclincally induced by the approaching short wave trough.

(edited to change S-SW to S-SE...forgive my being directionally challenged - it's near the end of my shift)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1777
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 530 AM [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #67512 - Tue Jun 27 2006 06:13 AM

I'll buy that. But, can you honesty say that it's not going to happen for nearly-certain, no way, no how? The convection has been getting deeper and deeper.

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Jun 27 2006 06:16 AM)


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: 530 AM [Re: cieldumort]
      #67513 - Tue Jun 27 2006 06:21 AM

Quote:

I'll buy that. But, can you honesty say that it's not going to happen? The convection has been getting deeper and deeper.




The MLC is, give or take, roughly 200 miles south of the NC coast. The mean steering flow off the SC coast is about 25-30kt. That gives the system about 6, maybe 8 hours at best to create the pressure falls needed to spin up enough of a surface vortex to reverse the S-SE flow ahead of it.

Can I honestly say for sure that it won't happen? Of course not. However, given the synoptic pattern, my educated guess is that it won't have enough time.

(edited to change S-SW to S-SE...forgive my being directionally challenged - it's near the end of my shift)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1777
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 530 AM [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #67514 - Tue Jun 27 2006 06:33 AM

lolz @ directionally-challenged via burnout

I didn't mean to imply "honestly say (for sure)"

(I edited my reply to reflect what I was trying to convey - lack of sleep tonight)

You make a very compelling argument against it pulling it off, and I very much appreciate that you are a met who has been following this quite closely. I just can't get past seeing how much deeper the convection is right where it needs to be and the healthy outflow.


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JOC
Unregistered




Re: 530 AM [Re: cieldumort]
      #67515 - Tue Jun 27 2006 07:55 AM

Just heard on the TWC that hurricane hunters may go out later today and check out 91L. Can anyone confirm this? I also noticed that the MLC may be moving NNE. Could this whole complex miss the coastline entirely?

JOC


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David P
Unregistered




Re: 530 AM [Re: JOC]
      #67516 - Tue Jun 27 2006 07:58 AM

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: 530 AM [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #67517 - Tue Jun 27 2006 07:58 AM

I see Stacy, who probably is the most pro-active of the TPC specialists has put out a DSA on the system. Again, surface obs don't lie - there doesn't appear to be a closed ground-relative surface circulation in spite of the satellite presentation which shows a clearly defined convective vortex.

It's a race against time. I still don't think you'll ever see a north wind in the coastal METAR/Buoy/C-Man obs before this critter moves inland.

Edited by Tony Cristaldi (Tue Jun 27 2006 09:56 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Day Shift Arrived... [Re: danielw]
      #67520 - Tue Jun 27 2006 09:26 AM

Good way of putting it.
Felt like I had whiplash this morning when reading email from NHC.

Never wake up this late in June.

Thanks ...
Remember that this was a "large broard area of.." to begin with so it's not surprising that the real vortex stood up and started spinning.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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