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Vigorous tropical wave .. Invest #96L .. now up to 90% chance of development per NHC. Heads to Greater Antilles & Bahamas this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 33 (Michael) , Major: 33 (Michael) Florida - Any: 33 (Michael) Major: 33 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
debby misses her audition [Re: scottsvb]
      #69858 - Wed Aug 09 2006 02:22 AM

there was a decent little vortex earlier today... for some reason increased convection coincided with decreased organization (can't see any cumulus lines on the southern side of the sketchy convection... looks open). that was the only dramatic change that occurred... really odd that it seems to have stunted the disturbance into an open wave.
that was the only thing that looked very impressive in the basin... the scattered disturbances over the weekend that looked more impressive have yielded nothing and continue to do so.
mjo wave is working into the central pacific. if the opposing positive phase (suppressed convection/increased upper troughing) is what is to blame for the fizzled start to august, then provided it doesn't peter out or something the negative phase part of the wave should be here later this month. would help it along if SOI stays in the tank and starts to work against the trades. otherwise atlantic hurricane activity will have trouble, sans the usual spike in activity around the annual peak.
HF 0622z09august


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1832
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: debby misses her audition [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69859 - Wed Aug 09 2006 04:39 AM

I wouldn't write off 91L until we start hearing the opera - and right now it's more like jazz after an evening of sleepy ocean waves and light classical.

Maybe, just maybe, 91L has benefited some this late overnight from the slightly lower shear, slightly higher SSTs (which will also be in it's future), and the nocturnal max. At this hour at least, 91L does not resemble an open easterly wave to me - as much as it strikes me as a broad low pressure system with a decent convective flare, embedded within an easterly wave.

Let's see what happens to all of this when the sun gets out, however. I do speculate that because 91 stayed weak, it has also been running a tad on the southern reaches of guidance, thus getting some additional shelter from the higher shear values to the north. Sneaky.

It will be interesting to see if NRL adds 91 back *and* especially so, should they include the TCFA - while equally telling if FNMOC removes either or both.


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