CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 133
Loc: East Central Florida 28.45N 81.06W
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With no surprise the “strong tropical wave” we all have been talking about is now named Tropical Storm Claudette. Where will she go? How strong will she get?
We are experiencing some technical problems with the auto updating sections of the site. Should be up and running by 9 pm tonight.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [john@flhurricane.com]
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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Hows this for a prediction. Cat 1 off of the coast of Texas/La in around 5 days. 
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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There is also the possibility that the trough moving into the east coast could weaken the ridge enough to have it move northward. That all depends on her latitude when she passes Jamaica IMO. Jury will convene I'm sure during the next few days. Now for the tracking ffun before someone needs to get concerned. Cheers!!
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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My thinking is that Claudette will be a Texas problem but many things can happen with the ridges and (ULL'S) that the track is uncertain after day 4.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Tue Jul 08 2003 05:38 PM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Joe B. put out an interesting 3:45 update. Of course I'm not going to post it  , but he cautioned Gulf Coasters from Mobile Westward to pay close heed. He also (as I posted myself earlier) thinks it could be a healthy hurricane down the line.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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find her beautiful to watch unfold these last few hours..
really incredibly beautiful
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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has the look of a system that once wound up will really go for it
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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i just tried to pull up the models from wrel's link and it has a note on it that says he is gone to boy scout camp. Perfect timing wouldnt you say?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Gary,
Go to netwaves.net or do a google search for Wright Weather. You can get the tracks and plots from both those sites.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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Thanks steve!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Here are the links:
http://www.net-waves.net/weather/td04.php
http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/gfdl/tracks/
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Been out all day and look what i come home too!
She certainly looks impressive on satellite, with a growing area of central deep convection, and excellent outflow. My gut feeling is that we will see a hurricane within the next 24 hours, if not within the next 12. As far as track goes, i am in good agreement with 's forecast... taking her across the Yucatan and into the Gulf. I think we may see more of a northerly turn and an evantual landfall on the US gulf coast... but it is way to early to say where, when, and how strong!
Anyway, will post as often as i can 
Regards,
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Yes it is too early to tell, but there some things that could change the MX/TX strike. I don't rule out anywhere in the gulf coast, including FL.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Young Droop
Unregistered
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Hey everyone...I was watchin the Tropical Update on and Dr. Lyon's said the stronger the storm..the farther north the track will be. The weaker the storm the farther south it'll stay. Is that the case with this storm or is it too early to tell? All i know is the gulf states dont need another storm right now. I think tomorrow will give us a better idea of where the storm will be heading. I'll say it'll be a hurricane in 30 hours.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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A question: could Claudette's forward speed at 29mph tear her apart or is she suppossed to slow down?
Bill: Glad you liked the birth announcement
Frank: I probably should be in Witness Protection Plan.
Gary: We've been doing this a LONG LONG LONG TIME! 4-5 years! 
Oh yeah, one more thing Gary: don't discount the models just yet....we did that all last year and they were ---for the most part---all correct.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Bill
Unregistered
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Historically (look at Weather Underground) the storms in this area have gone west...now, having said that, realize what a small piece of history we have seen, and....the more the storm moves north, the more likely climatology will NOT be the determinant factor. How many storms have we seen in the last fews years that bucked climo?
MOST storms that have developed like this...ie, lower latitude, moving quickly, have become very formidanble storms indeed! We will see....
IHS,
Bill
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Mind you, I am only a hobbyist, but I have been watching hurricanes for a long time and I don't recall a storm looking so impressive but taking so long to become classified. I read some of the post the last few days and I am with them that the might have been waiting for the recon "smoking gun". As I understand it, the stronger the storm, the more it becomes embedded in the upper air flow. At least thats how I remember it. I welcome the more knowledgeable to correct me if I am getting it wrong.
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Jara
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Droop this storm puzzles me. You have an ULL to the west and a trough due to move into the east by Friday. Doesn't sound like MX/TX to me, but we've said that before. When a cyclone strengthens it becomes like a spinning top ; the faster it spins, the more easily influenced it is by the steering around it, like hitting the top with a string it changes direction with ease. That's the principle that Dr. Lyons is referring to (I assume, cause I didn't hear it). But there certainly are other factors. Right now we have to see how much of a northerly component it will have during the next 48 hours. Should it reach 20N by Thursday, it will more likely have a chance to be influenced by the trough/any weakness in the ridge. Hard to say right now, but I feel a bit uneasy about it even here in central Florida. Odds are that it will stay below that latitude through 72 hours. Even so, what happens after that is still up for grabs as the steering currents may be weaker. Let's face it, she hasn't had a chance with the strong easterly flow, but that won't last forever. I see her slowing in the next 24 -36 hours. Time to watch. And its only July 8th. Cheers!!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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I agree Lois. The last few visibles looked awesome. Claudette has that look like she wants to give it a go. Forward speed and maybe land should be her biggest tests. You have to admire how she's come together moving 25-29 MPH.
Something keeps telling me to take this storm seriously. If things break right, Claudette's got a shot at becoming a Cat 2 or 3 (= somebody could pay). Everyone pay attention to this one.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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She looks to be gaining strength. Although what happens in the short term. Theres an upper level trough just to the west of Claudette. Winds running from southwest at 20-30 kts. This is already having it's effects on the far western side where storms have waned. If she slowed down some this probably wouldn't be a problem. The upper low to the northwest is slowly pulling out. So don't be surprised if theres some intensification tonight, then possibly weakening some tomorrow. Time will only tell, but conditions will improve as it enters western Caribbean.
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